Will the GOP win the Midterms of 2014 and the Election of 2016?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

About a 75% chance of the GOP gaining seats in the House in 2014 and maybe a 5% chance of the Dems regaining control of the House in 2014.  The last few election cycles have shown a bit of a disconnect on the usual mid-term trends, probably because of the overall decoupling of House and Presidential results.  2014 won't be merely the sixth year of Obama, it'll be the fourth year of a Republican-led House.

In the Senate, Landrieu (D-LA) and Pryor (D-AR) will vulnerable no matter what.  Baucus (D-MT), Begich (D-AK), Frankin (DFL-MN), Hagan (D-NC), Johnson (D-SD), Shaheen (D-NH), M. Udall (D-CO), and Warner (D-VA) depend largely on how the economy is doing.  Collins (RINO-ME) would be replaced by Democrat if she doesn't run again. Graham (R-SC) might get TP'd and then have the Democrats win, since I seriously doubt a non-kooky person would get into a primary fight with Graham.  (Altho that's probably why he's in such a boil over Rice right now so as to avoid a serious primary challenge.)  If Rockefeller (D-WV) retires, his seat is a likely GOP pickup, but if he runs, he should be able to keep it.  Anyway, I expect the GOP to gain anywhere from 1 to 9 seats in the Senate in 2014, with 3 as the most likely number, which isn't enough to take the Senate.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I don't have any first hand experience with any of the others, but Pryor got 80% of the vote in 2008. He wasn't even challenged by a Republican, the Green party got the other 20% of the vote.

That was 2008 when the GOP was at a low point nationally.  The GOP is certain to run someone in 2014, and Arkansas is quickly becoming a solid blue state.  That Green party vote in 2008 was almost all votes for someone who wasn't a Democrat, not votes for the Green party.

As for Warner, he was running against someone from the right edge of the GOP.  If the GOP runs someone better and 2014 is a better year over all for the GOP, Warner could be vulnerable.