The McCain States. Why so few polls and is this the republican floor?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The conventional wisdom had been that pretty much any Republican nominated this year would see at minimum a 5 point swing in the margin.  That would effectively have put out of the running any pickups save Missouri and Montana out of reach as that would have required a greater than 10 point trend in the margin for those states to overcome.  That sort of trend doesn't happen too much and there usually is some reason for it beyond random chance.  If the national poll numbers continue to move closer to those of 2008, we'll some some of these states be polled more often.  The state I really want to see polled is Tennessee.  The pre-GOP primary polling there was suggestive of that state having a considerable trend towards Obama this year.  If Romney collapses so much that Obama has a chance of improving on his 2008 national numbers, then Tennessee could be a possible pickup.  Not that I think either necessary condition has much chance of happening, but Obama winning Tennessee is not impossible, just very highly improbable