Who do you think will win the election?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I think at this point, its hard to see Obama not winning.

While Obama is the likely winner right now, it's not tough at all to come with scenarios that lead to him losing.  Since those scenarios all involve some sore of problem, for that reason alone I hope they don't come to be.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

All the data and polls show Obama as vulnerable.  Especially the jobs data and unemployment.  When summer comes and $4 gas is here to stay, then Romney really has a chance.

Except the projections are that $4 gas is not here to stay.  Either the Iranian situation heats up to a hot war, in which case what happens there and not the economy will likely determine the election outcome, or the market adjusts to the continued Iranian crisis and starts coming down.

Romney's platform is "Deficit Reduction" and "Balance the Budget"  and he can win on those themes. 

When I wasn't looking, did Romney already shake his Etch-a Sketch and erase those tax cuts he was talking about during the primaries?  For people who care about "Deficit Reduction" and "Balance the Budget" as their primary issues, Romney comes across as yet another politician who pays lip service to those two goals while pursuing policies that do the opposite.