Should Iraq be split up?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Iraq is likely to go the way of those other Versailles creations, Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia.  However, the Kurds are one reason why everyone wants to keep it all together.  An independent Iraqi Kurdistan creates problems for Syria, Turkey, and Iran.  The reason why the Saudi's dodn't want us going to Baghdad in 1991 no longer pertains.  The Shiites are on top, and they aren't going to be dislodged.  I don't think the Shiites are going to go for a Iranian-style theocracy.  They've seen the limitations of that, and I think Sistani and company are wary of the internal pressures that are building up in Iran.  If Iran were more successful, then there would be a danger of South Iraq going that way.  The ral problem is what happens to the Sunni Arabs.  A swap of Sunni Iraw for Kurdish Syria might make sense in the abstract, but ...  Baghdad is the powerkeg that causes all the problems.  Like multi-ethnic Sarjevo before it, it may need to be destroyed by a civil war before peace can happen.