New Census Estimates for the States (user search)
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Author Topic: New Census Estimates for the States  (Read 5822 times)
True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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Posts: 42,144
United States


« on: December 22, 2004, 10:26:24 PM »

I'm getting different results than you are for which states have seats 431 to 440.

#431  TX 35
#432  PA 18
#433  AL 7
#434  MN 8
#435  MI 15

#436  CA 55
#437  NY 28
#438  FL 28
#439  IL 19
#440  LA 7

But strangely enough I get the same overall result:

AZ +1
CA +1
FL +2
GA +1
IL -1
IA -1
LA -1
NV +1
NY -2
OH -2
MA -1
MO -1
PA -1
TX +3
UT +1
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 42,144
United States


« Reply #1 on: December 23, 2004, 09:35:36 PM »

I wasn't using the apportionment population before, but even with correcting for that I'm still getting different results.

The states getting seats 431-440 remain unchanged, altho my pop numers are slightly different if I use the apportionment pop as my base pop instead of the estimate base pop as before.  I think we're using different multipliers.   Here's how I'm getting my number for each state:

1) Find the ratio between the July 1, 2004 estimate and the Apr 1, 2000 estimate base for that State.

2) Find the 17th root of that ratio to get the quarterly multiplier.

3) Raise that root to the 40th power to get the multiplier for 10 years (40 quarters).

4) Multiply that number by the base population to get an estimate for Apr 1, 2010.
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