Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Yup.  It is too soon to decolor New Mexico, tho it probably will be the next state to go white on the map.  Maybe if one of those court cases had applied statewide, but they haven't so far.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Updated to include the Indiana poll in the post above.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If it weren't for the fact that I don't think it really matters, I'd be tempted to go back and separate the under 30% group into under 25% and 25-29.9% groups.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If it weren't for the fact that I don't think it really matters, I'd be tempted to go back and separate the under 30% group into under 25% and 25-29.9% groups.

It wouldn't matter. Same-sex marriage is not going to be legalized in any state in which support is under 30% except through the decision of a federal court -- most likely the Supreme Court.

Exactly.  The only question is when that case will be decided by the Supreme Court, 2016 or 2017?  A case might reach them by 2016, but they might want to delay it until after the election.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

When was the last time Wisconsin was polled?  It's starting to stick out like a sore thumb.

February.  Assuming the state continues its trend from the previous polls, there's a roughly 60% chance a poll done now would still show a plurality of Wisconsinites opposed to SSM.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

When was the last time Wisconsin was polled?  It's starting to stick out like a sore thumb.

February.  Assuming the state continues its trend from the previous polls, there's a roughly 60% chance a poll done now would still show a plurality of Wisconsinites opposed to SSM.

Well, if GA now supports SSM, Wisconsin could be anywhere!

I've seen different numbers in Wisconsin. Marquette's polling last year before the election showed that people were in favor of SSM, but I don't think they've polled that question this year for some reason.

In favor of SSM or civil unions?  While the latest polls I've seen out of both Georgia and Wisconsin show a solid majority in both states are in favor of recognizing same-sex couples, when the M-word is mentioned support plummeted to the point that in Wisconsin a slim plurality opposed and in Georgia a solid majority opposed.  If you remove civil unions as an option, only about 15% of those who favor civil unions but not marriage tend to support marriage in that case.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

When was the last time Wisconsin was polled?  It's starting to stick out like a sore thumb.

February.  Assuming the state continues its trend from the previous polls, there's a roughly 60% chance a poll done now would still show a plurality of Wisconsinites opposed to SSM.

I doubt that. Wisconsin is culturally similar in demographics and voting patterns to Iowa. Politically it is closer to Virginia than to West Virginia. I wish that PPP had asked the question in Wisconsin. There will be plenty of opportunities due to heated gubernatorial and Senate races. 

Similar is not the same as. In polling, Iowa has consistently been several percentage points higher than in Wisconsin in its support of SSM. Yet even now, four years after the courts there required the state to recognize SSM, the latest poll numbers from July would place Iowa in the same aqua shade as Indiana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, with a plurality, but not a majority supporting it.  44-46,45-46, 45-45, 46-45 are the most probable numbers from a Wisconsin poll now based on the trends within the states and polls in adjacent states.  Indeed, if anything, a comparison with Iowa would suggest no change in Wisconsin opinion.  In February Iowa polled 46-43 (+3) while in July it polled 47-44 (+3).

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Besides that they likely used different screens for likely voters, there was one other significant difference between the two polls.  In the Freedom Indiana poll informed people before hand that there was already a law on Indiana's books preventing recognition of SSM before asking people if they supported an amendment.  The IFI poll suggests that people were left with the impression that the amendment would add something not already covered by existing law.

So his suggests that there are a fair number of Indianans who are opposed to SSM, but see no reason to make a ban part of the state constitution when it is already part of the law.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

With the New Jersey Supreme Court refusing to issue a stay in the order requiring SSM licenses to be issued starting Monday, time to turn NJ white:

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Indiana Family Institution is a right-wing, Christian fundamentalist group. As such its polling could be suspect.

Yeah, I'm not sanguine about how IFI picked likely voters.  Conversely, Freedom Indiana did a push poll in that they provided information beyond the language of the amendment prior to asking the question and they asked registered voters rather than likely voters.  For an off year election that will be even more significant than with a presidential election.  I can't see including either poll in the map.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Hawaii Support For Same-Sex Marriage Grows

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Hawaii's numbers are truly baffling.  Is there any good explanation for them?

you're going to get racially informed answers with possibly including words like 'traditional', 'culture', and 'honor'

Nah.  It's probably just anger at the gays for stealing the rainbow. 

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Arkansas Poll shows modest improvement in SSM approval, but still dismal from a national perspective.

http://plsc.uark.edu/7129.php

Figures are among very likely voters, change is from the 2011 version of the Arkansas Poll

 24% (+2%) Same Sex Marriage
 23% (+1%) Civil Unions, but no SSM
 46% (-4%) No legal recognition at all

Since the map is of the two pronged question and not the three pronged one asked here, I didn't add it to the map, tho really the only question is what shade of red would be the result.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Montana (MSU Billings):

47% legal
43% illegal

http://billingsgazette.com/news/local/education/new-msub-poll-reveals-montanans-opposed-shutdown-disapprove-of-obama/article_00d85a5e-ae77-5b8d-958b-3d41052cc71e.html

I hate to be a downer, but I notice the article says they surveyed equal numbers of landline and cell phone users.  Wouldn't that mean that the cell phone users are overweighted and thus the poll skews young and thus would overstate SSM support?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Montana (MSU Billings):

47% legal
43% illegal

http://billingsgazette.com/news/local/education/new-msub-poll-reveals-montanans-opposed-shutdown-disapprove-of-obama/article_00d85a5e-ae77-5b8d-958b-3d41052cc71e.html

I hate to be a downer, but I notice the article says they surveyed equal numbers of landline and cell phone users.  Wouldn't that mean that the cell phone users are overweighted and thus the poll skews young and thus would overstate SSM support?

It would be acceptable if the results are normed so that the different populations fit the general distribution. Thus if one calls 500 people who have landlines and get a 40-60 result (for/against)  among them and 100 with cell phones only and  get a 60-40 result , and know that the split in land-line users and cell-phone users is 80-20 landlines, then one gets a 44-56 result.

Except there's no indication they normed the data.

http://www.msubillings.edu/urelations/releases/2013/2013_State_Poll.pdf

They also didn't release info on the age or partisan distribution of their sample, but looking at their past polls, I see they've never done so. (Tho they do at times release info on how particular subsamples polled, they don't include the subsample sizes.)

I don't doubt that SSM support has increased since they last polled this subject three years ago:

http://www.msubillings.edu/cas/nams/MSUB_Poll_Oct_2010.pdf

Then the numbers were:
Support: 33.9%
Oppose: 51.6%

A majority (58.5%) of Democrats and plurality of independents (45.2%) supported legalization. A majority (72.2%) of Republicans opposed legalization.

The partisan breakdown in the 2013 poll was:

A majority (76%) of Democrats and plurality of independents (47%) supported same sex marriage, while a majority (61%) of Republicans opposed them.

Those numbers are reasonably consistent with the change in the topline numbers, but as I said, I'm concerned the high number of cell phone responses have skewed the age distribution younger than it actually is and SSM is one issue where getting the age distribution correct is crucial for an accurate result.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Yeah, several states are off in that map of yours pbrower. Besides New Jersey, Montana, Indiana, and Hawaii are off, possibly others.  You must have snagged an out of date map.  The differences are all showing greater support of SSM, save in Indiana.  Looks like for that state you picked the more favorable of the two slanted push polls from dubious pollsters that were released at about the same time, but which no one else has been including in the map.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I did clip and paste from an obsolete map. Mea culpa.

We're all human, except maybe barfbag considering how often he posts.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

There's no way Georgia supports Same-Sex Marriage. It shouldn't even be close too.

If black attitudes on SSM were to change to conform to Democratic orthodoxy, then yes the South could become supportive of SSM.  However, given the racial polarization of politics down here, I don't expect any change in the law down here by the GOP dominated legislatures, so the change in the law will have to wait for the Supreme Court ruling in a few years time.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Updating for the latest SC poll done by Winthrop.  They're usually fairly reliable, tho it would be nice to see crosstabs on the results.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Since this is the sort of informative, but not posted in every day topic that should be stickied, I've stickied it.  If you think there is some other thread that meets that standard, PM me and I'll consider the request.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Montana could do civil unions quickly if it wishes, but SSM requires repealing a state constitutional amendment.  There are only five states left that do not have constitutional provisions prohibiting state recognition of SSM, that do not have statewide recognition of it: Indiana, New Mexico Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Wyoming.  Alaska, Arizona, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, and Tennessee are the states whose constitutions ban recognizing SSM, but which could enact civil unions, but have not yet done so.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Am I the only one who is a bit puzzled by the support in Georgia?

Atlanta (the city, not the suburbs) has a considerable LGBT community with about 1 in 8 Atlantans identifying as LGBT.  Between that and that African Americans in general appear to be rapidly abandoning their opposition to gay marriage and embracing their fellow Democrats, its not too surprising, tho I suspect the most recent poll is likely an outlier.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Updating for the Ohio poll in the previous post:

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Ohio (PPP):

Do you support or oppose allowing same-sex couples to get married?

Strongly support.............................................. 28%
Somewhat support.......................................... 19% =====> 47%

Somewhat oppose .......................................... 12%
Strongly oppose.............................................. 36% =====> 48%

Q6 Thinking again about the November 2014 election, a proposal to amend the Ohio Constitution may appear on the ballot. This constitutional amendment would allow two consenting adults to be married, so long as they are not nearer of kin than second cousins, are not currently married to someone, and no religious institutions will be required to perform or recognize a marriage. If the election were held today, would you vote in favor of this amendment to the Ohio Constitution, or would you vote against it?

Strongly for ..................................................... 34%
Not so strongly for........................................... 18% =====> 52%

Strongly against .............................................. 33%
Not so strongly against ................................... 5%  =====> 38%

https://freedomohio.com/poll

So Ohians oppose SSM 48-47, but would vote to allow it 52-38?

That news release did not indicate the order in which questions were asked.  If that second question was asked first, some of the respondents likely were not thinking about SSM when they gave their answer.  There's also the possibility that some of the SSM opposition comes from concerns that churches and other institutions would be forced to participate in gay marriages even in they don't want to.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

They might not like SSM, but they would be willing to vote to legalize it.

That hypothesis doesn't make much sense, considering the first question asks if they want same-sex marriage to be allowed, not whether they approve of same-sex marriage.

There is considerable research indicating that the "real" numbers on same-sex marriage come only after you re-assign to the "No" column people who give inconsistent answers or indicate personal discomfort/theological opposition to same-sex marriage.  And that applies to the straight-up "do you support same-sex marriage rights?" question.  The second question in this Ohio poll is about as vague and feel-good as they come.  There's absolutely no reason to believe it's more accurate than the first question, based on either wording or past history with similar poll language.

I would peg same-sex marriage for about -5 points in Ohio based on those numbers...which isn't bad at all.  The +14 number is pretty ridiculous to accept, though.

Also as I pointed out earlier, while the press release mentions the 47-48 result first, there is nothing to indicate it was asked before the question that gave the 52-38 result. If that second question was asked first, some of the respondents likely were not thinking about SSM when they gave their answer.  Indeed, thinking about again, that really is the only way to explain such disparate numbers on the two questions.  Some people who answered that question were thinking only in terms of its effects upon opposite-sex marriage, since they were thinking that is the only true form of marriage.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Yeah, the ordering issue is certainly not a factor.  Given the wording of the proposed referendum and the results from Q7,  I suppose that some of those opposed to SSM, but who think it will be happening despite their opposition, favor the proposed referendum as a means of securing the ability of their church to not perform SSM.  That would make a certain degree of sense.  In that case Q6 isn't measuring SSM support and thus the much higher level of support in Q6 is not contradicting the statistical tie in Q5.