Doesn’t look good

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Difficult to say which way things are going.  A few months ago (heck, a few weeks ago) if you had told me that it would be possible for us to reprise 2000 by having the winners of the PV and EV differ, I would have thought you had to be describing a Bush victory in the EV and a Kerry victory in the PV.  However, while I see that Bush should have a solid 1-3% lock on the PV. I basically have the EV as tossup still with, depending on how you look at the numbers, either Bush or Kerry with a slight advantage.  And then there are all the fanciful scenarios for a 269-269 tie, including one I've seen that ends up with a President John McCain!

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Click on the little map button at left and you'll see my prediction.  Right now I have:
Kerry (strong or lean): 251
Kerry (tossup): 11
Bush (tossup): 49
Bush (strong or lean): 227

So while I give Bush the edge, most of the potential change is to Kerry instead of against Kerry.
The contest (beyond the neccessary shoring up of leaning states) is in New Mexico, Florida, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Maine CD 2.

Florida is traditionally hard to poll and the huricanes and early voting have made that worse.  If I could be as confident of Florida polls as those from other States, I'd have this state as leaning Bush.

Wisconsin is the fulcrum at this point.  If I had to pick a single State that will be on the winning side that is the one.  GOTV efforts in that State will make the difference, especially with same-day registration.IIRC.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

An economic recovery, no matter how slow or tepid, is never a deteriorating situation.

There are 700 Americans dying in Iraq each year. And 50,000 die in traffic accidents each year. You do the math.

By that logic, why is Bush worrying about the War on Terrorism when a War on Traffic Accidents could save more US lives?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Build better highways and more mass transit.  $50 billion a year would about triple highway spending in this country IIRC.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If we're going to crusade against injustice, when are we going to invade Zimbabwe or Burma?

The economic damage from traffic accidents is worse, we've just become used to it, that's all.

I seriously doubt that terrorists will be able to get their hands on nukes any time soon.  If they do, it's a lot likelier it'll be a stolen nuke from the former Soviet Union than it will be an Irani, Pakistani, or North Korean nuke handed over to a terrorist.  In any case, Bush hasn't done anything to make the likelihood a terrorist getting his hands on nukes lower than it was.  If anything the incompetence of his administration's planning for Iraq has made it more likely, not less likely that Iran will be a nuclear power by the end of the decade.

I am yanking your chain a bit here, as I'm not seriously suggesting we abandon the war on terrorism, but just simply throwing money at the problem isn't going to solve it either, and throwing money is about the only thing that the Bush administartion has shown that it can do well.