UK Election - Results Thread

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Remember that the exit poll doesn't cover postal votes.

Are they allowed to count the postal votes early or do those have to wait for the polls to close at 10pm.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

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from BBC

Could be bad news, with the shit hitting the fan in Greece already and the near disaster on Wall Street this afternoon.

Since the general expectation was a hung Parliament, the market should have already factored that in.  I'd only expect a big swing if the Tories do get a majority (or a near-majority).

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If the reports of a slight Labour rise in Scotland and Wales are true, are there any seats that could be gains for them?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

So far, all that is in are three safe Labour seats where people could cast a protest vote against Brown secure in the knowledge that it wouldn't matter.  If I were a Tory, I'd wait to see how some marginal seats perform before doing any victory dances.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

So far, all that is in are three safe Labour seats where people could cast a protest vote against Brown secure in the knowledge that it wouldn't matter.  If I were a Tory, I'd wait to see how some marginal seats perform before doing any victory dances.

It is just so boring to say something so sensible. Can't you reach a bit more?

Clearly people in Sunderland, knowing that they would be first to report, declined to vote Lib Dem so as to increase the shock when Clegg is called to meet with the Queen tomorrow.

Better?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

It's looking increasingly possible that this could end up so well hung that the Lib Dems can't get either the Tories or Labour to a majority by themselves.  If so, when this year do we have the second election and who benefits?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

What exactly is this Labour and Co-operative deal?

The Co-operative Party are a group of self-important lefties who endorse some Labour candidates who grovel a lot. They're totally irrelevant these days.

Oh so the UK has their own version of NY's Working Families Party?

It's kind of annoying because the Telegraph's map that I'm looking at colors those seats in gray for "other parties" instead of red for Labour.

I guess. I think they have much less influence than the WFP, which does have clout in some elections. They're more comparable to the United Citizens Party, or whatever it's called, in South Carolina, in terms of sheer irrelevance. (Al might correct me here, but I think it's safe to say that the Co-op label means almost nothing these days.)

The UCP is completely irrelevant these days.  It came into being for the sole purpose of running black Democratic candidates in black majority districts back in the days when the local Democratic establishment was still trying to cling to a whites-only mentality.  By the way, thanks to the fact that SC permits fusion voting, we have our own little copy of the WFP down here as well.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

At this point, the only way the UK doesn't have a snap election later this year (or early next year at the latest) is if the Tories enter into a coalition with either Labour or the LibDems.  No other combinations will be stable enough to survive.

I don't see either combo as being likely tho.  Maybe a grand coalition of all three for the stake of stability with a predetermined election date in a year or two, but that looks like fantasy too.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Not a good night for UKIP or the BNP.

I'd disagree.  Both increased their overall share of the vote from 2005 altho a good part of that is due to them standing in more constituencies IIRC, and a case can be made that they were responsible for some of the Tory gains in close constituencies such as Broxtowe.  That isn't to say it was a great night for them, as it wasn't, but I'd say they met expectations.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Sinn Fein holds on to Fermanagh-South Tyrone so there will be 645 sitting MPs, making 323 the target for a majority.

Best that the Tories can hope for now is 306 + 8 DUP + Hermon + Thirsk & Malton =316.

Best that a Lab/LD/SDLP/Green amalgamation can hope for now is 318, with 317 being the probable number.

The only stable combination is the Tories + LD or Lab or both.

I don't see Clegg as being willing to support the Tories in exchange for a toothless commission on electoral reform, and I can't see him wanting to prop up Labour under these totals.  In sum, the UK could see a fall or even a summer election.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

What does St. Silver know about British elections and that stuff?

He knows math, which is all you really need to know to project elections, whether they be in the UK, US or Uzbekistan.  I'm willing to wager Silver will be right and the British models wrong.

Well well well... (sorry if this has been pointed out before.)

And, btw. Nope. The US has no elections that rival Britain's in complexity. It'll be a cold day in hell when an American, on his first attempt, doesn't do worse than the British way of doing these things. They know their math too, you know.

The British don't know their math, they know their maths.  No wonder Nate got it wrong!

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If anyone's interested: The German site election.de did a "What if UK had used the German election system?" scenario (= you need at least 5% of the vote or three constituencies to be included in proportional seat allocation).

Of course, it comes down to a Tory/LibDem or Labour/LibDem coalition again, just with much stronger LibDems.

Actually those numbers make a Labour/LibDem coalition possible.  With the current numbers, there' no chance Clegg would prop up Labour.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

First voting intention for the next election.

Con 38% (+1) Lab 34% (+4) LD 21% (-3). (changes on GE result)
ComRes/Sunday Mirror/Indy on Sunday

Interesting post-Brown bounce.

Only 5 years to go.

Which, based on UNS, would be:

Tories - 291 seats
Labour - 286 seats
Lib Dems - 45 seats
Others - 28 seats

Tories short by 35 seats of an overall majority

Is that UNS from the 2005 notionals or the 2010 results?  And if the latter, do you have a link to that 2010 swingometer?