FDU Says Christie Up By 9

[Keystone Phil]

Starting to look like the same old New Jersey, eh, guys?

[Keystone Phil]

Starting to look like the same old New Jersey, eh, guys?

Yeah because an incumbent at 33% is perfectly normal...

Uh, yeah, in NJ it is pretty normal.

[Keystone Phil]

Starting to look like the same old New Jersey, eh, guys?

Yeah because an incumbent at 33% is perfectly normal...

Uh, yeah, in NJ it is pretty normal.

Really? Show me a poll.

Go look up the countless ratings for NJ's statewide elected officials! You really mean to tell me that Menendez and Corzine (even Lautenberg) haven't had approval ratings this low before? Now I know this isn't a rating poll but the same thing applies - the GOP candidate is polling in the low 40s and while most can't stand the Dem incumbent, they think they're better off disliking the Dem in power than hating the Republican in power.

At the end of the day, the undecided voters break the other way, pal. I wish it wasn't so. It's sad but true. Work your ass off and fight for your candidate but don't be shocked when it ends the same way it always ends.

[Keystone Phil]

They were NEVER at 33% in a poll, and no they have never had approval ratings this low.

Blatantly false.

From Corzine's own Wiki page:

An April 26, 2006, polls from Quinnipiac University Polling Institute showed Corzine at a 35% approval with a 42% disapproval

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jon_Corzine#Governor

 

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It's April, dude. Get real. Once they know he was a Bush appointee and an evil Republican, things will change. Your state falls for the most ridiculous rhetoric.

[Keystone Phil]

All that shows is Corzine has never really been that popular in NJ. I don't get what your point is there.

Uh...you said his approval was never this low (33%). It clearly was that low before.

[Keystone Phil]

Starting to look like the same old New Jersey, eh, guys?

Yeah because an incumbent at 33% is perfectly normal...

Menendez was as low as 36% as late as September '06 in a uni poll.  not sure if he was technically an 'incumbent' but the point remains.

Not an incumbent.

Technically, yes, he was.

[Keystone Phil]

I'm amazed that people here don't see that Corzine and the Dems have an amazing opportunity to label their likely opponent (unless that "major scandal" breaks soon) as a Republican Bush appointee. They did it with Doug Forrester, of all people, and it worked so it will definitely be used and probably work against Christie.

Corzine wasn't insanely popular back in 2005 either. It might be closer than a nine point race this time but to say this is a Republican lock is laughable. Absolutely laughable. It's April, guys.

[Keystone Phil]

You are clueless, like you are with everything else.

Lock.

LOL

I'm clueless on everything. Wow. Amazing how I got the reputation for being politically clueless thanks to two (or maybe three) incorrect political predictions that were considered hackish. Now I'm apparently clueless because of a completely non-hackish prediction in a state that is known for sticking it to the GOP. Amazing.

[Keystone Phil]

The poll has him at 40/49 in approval, and it keeps getting lower.

My friend, you don't even have a majority of those polled disapproving.

Listen, if you want to argue that Christie can win and he's slightly favored, fine. I disagree but whatever. However, if you argue that Christie is a lock...well...your head is in your ass.

[Keystone Phil]

Did I say lock? No, I said a incumbent Democrat in New Jersey has never been in this bad of shape, so to compare it to previous elections is just ridiculous.

Lautenberg's ratings were in the low 40s/high 30s last year.

[Keystone Phil]

Did I say lock? No, I said a incumbent Democrat in New Jersey has never been in this bad of shape, so to compare it to previous elections is just ridiculous.

Lautenberg's ratings were in the low 40s/high 30s last year.

I just looked at Pollster. He was never under 45% and never trailed in a poll.

Lautenberg at 43% approval rating - http://www.surveyusa.com/100USSenators0805SortedbyState.htm

By the way, I'm sure Corzine trailed at some point in 2005 and his approval rating wasn't hot then either.

[Keystone Phil]

I was talking about his percentage in a poll, not an approval rating

...

What?

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How? He was an incumbent in a statewide office with mediocre ratings (as I recall) who beat his opponent by nine points.

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Fair enough though I thought Forrester lead in a few polls early on.

[Keystone Phil]

First, I was talking about head to head matchups against Zimmer in 2008 for Lautenberg, he was never under 45% and never trailed.

Ok but you also mentioned approval ratings for Democratic incumbents. Lautenberg's ratings were low.

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Yeah, thanks. I was talking about Corzine in 2005.

[Keystone Phil]

First, I was talking about head to head matchups against Zimmer in 2008 for Lautenberg, he was never under 45% and never trailed.

Ok but you also mentioned approval ratings for Democratic incumbents. Lautenberg's ratings were low.

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Yeah, thanks. I was talking about Corzine in 2005.

In an election year.....

2005 wasn't an election year for Lautenberg, so his approval ratings don't matter.

44% rating in 2008 - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1214

[Keystone Phil]

First, I was talking about head to head matchups against Zimmer in 2008 for Lautenberg, he was never under 45% and never trailed.

Ok but you also mentioned approval ratings for Democratic incumbents. Lautenberg's ratings were low.

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Yeah, thanks. I was talking about Corzine in 2005.

In an election year.....

2005 wasn't an election year for Lautenberg, so his approval ratings don't matter.

44% rating in 2008 - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1214

It's 44-38, +6, which isn't a bad approval. Corzine's is -10 or worse depending on which poll you look at.

Ok but it was still below 45%.

Listen, whatever the case, I want you to understand that I hope I'm wrong about this. It's just that NJ has teased us for far too long.