Rasmussen Says Specter May Have Made a Mistake

[Keystone Phil]

I don't want to jinx it just yet because Specter has a habit of surviving but...

Adios, Arlen!

[Keystone Phil]

I don't want to jinx it just yet because Specter has a habit of surviving but...

Adios, Arlen!

Phil, do you really think a far-right Pat Toomey-type is going to win statewide in PA? Would you rather have the Democrats win another seat than have Specter as your candidate?

The funniest thing is that Arlen Specter has actually move quite a bit to the right over the past 10 or 15 years. He is no liberal.

See my sig.  I don't understand it either.  But... OK.  Whatever works... Kratovil, Schauer...  I'm sure there will be more.

Oh, I know, guys. It's always going to work out that way. Just like when Republicans said you guys had to move considerably to the right to ever have a chance in this country again. Remember how that worked out?

I'm done seriously responding to the same old rhetoric from the same old posters. I love it how Scoonie and Smash (along with their OCD buddy BRTD) asked the same question time and time again when they know we simply won't see eye to eye.

I don't want to jinx it just yet because Specter has a habit of surviving but...

Adios, Arlen!

Who's coming to beat him?

Not exactly sure yet. See the other thread. At this point, Specter is vulnerable to even second and possibly third tier candidates.

[Keystone Phil]

Can Democrats vote in the GOP primary?  I can't remember in PA.

No, we have a normal system. Independents rightfully can't vote in our primaries either.

[Keystone Phil]

he will still lose to a Democrat.

Well, I don't know about that but Specter's Forum Fan Club needs to realize that the man is older and not in great health. Every six years, he's able to do less campaigning than the time before. People need to also get over this silly idea that Specter is some adored force here. When he gets tough challenges/when third party candidates take away the conservative vote, he's stuck around 50%.

Now if Obama is enjoying great ratings in 2010, yeah, even Specter is going to serious struggle. If Josh Shapiro (a very young but very liberal rising star State Representative from Montco) is the nominee, he would out run Specter around this state like you wouldn't believe. Shapiro is a campaigner unlike any other (he used to be Hoeffel's chief of staff, by the way, so he's used to political battles). He's a fundraising machine. Now turnout would favor the GOP in a midterm election but if some third party candidate came along and/or Republicans just don't care to rally behind Specter (which is likely going to be the case), Shapiro could be very dangerous. He's totally out of touch with the state as a whole but if things line up for him, we could have a real problem.

If things are still good for Obama and Wagner is the Dem nominee then, yeah, Specter is most likely done. I would be for Wagner, too.

[Keystone Phil]

I have to agree with Phil.  Specter is indeed done.  Even if he wins the primary (doubtful), he will still lose to a Democrat.

If people who had a stake in the system believed that (some of the most informed people), then a top tier Democratic candidate with something to lose, like Schwartz, would have declared by now.

Many of us have been puzzled by Schwartz's reluctance. A Schwartz for Senate 2010 campaign seemed like the safest bet around here for years. However, Specter can still be seen as a goner (in the primary and even in the General) and top tier candidates might still stay away. Schwartz has a good thing going with her House seat. Imagine if she was to leave it to run for the Democratic nomination and lose (which is certainly possible with the number of SE PA candidates running and Wagner possibly jumping in to gobble up the moderate to conservative Dems/western and central PA vote).

[Keystone Phil]

I mean, we'll see someone more credible emerge eventually, but if it was obvious as Tweed implies...

Well, first of all, that wasn't Tweed. 

But, yeah, I understand what you're saying but please realize that even if Specter was very likely finished, there are still reasons to stay away.

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Torsella is a very interesting candidate. As was mentioned, he barely lost to Schwartz in 2004 but that was a race he was supposed to win. He's been somewhat of a force on the local scene but he doesn't have much of a base. If it's Schwartz vs. Torsella vs. Shapiro, Torsella will likely be the Philly machine candidate (but, as I have learned in this city, the insane number of factions and petty feuds that start up within the blink of an eye may change that). He also appeals to Dems in my area (the more populist types though he really isn't a populist) which would get him strong support in NE Philly, South Philly (the Italian thing would be huge down there, too. I'd love to see the results afterwards) and lower Bucks.

If it's just those three, Torsella also runs well out west, in NE PA and in the center of the state. His problem is that that's not where these primaries are won. He'd need insane numbers out of NE Philly and South Philly to compete with Schwartz (who will also have pull in NE Philly especially the Jewish areas and the more progressive areas of the city) and Shapiro (who will basically split Montco and others of the SE with Schwartz).

What Torsella would need to hope for is Schwartz and Shapiro splitting the vote to a great enough extent. There's a chance that they split the same base and still beat Torsella's numbers elsewhere. We'll have to see though. Torsella also really needs to hope that Wagner stays out. It also needs to be mentioned that Torsella is from Flourtown in Montco - an affluent community not far from the city. He, too, will get support from areas that would traditionally go for a Schwartz or Shapiro type candidate.

 

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Just a reminder: the chances of Specter retiring are literally below 0.5%. 

[Keystone Phil]

I think that in the ensuing general the Republican will most likely be beaten by a moderate Democrat. :-D  And yes those are high hopes lol

Nominate Wagner and even in a good year for the GOP, I'll likely give the race to the Dems against a conservative or even against Specter. That being said, Wagner keeps saying he's leaning more towards the Gubernatorial race.

[Keystone Phil]

Christ, that's nearly two years away.  Nobody will care - a, if the economy's doing well, or b, if it is doing badly we'll have had more stimulus bills anyway (next year spring/summer). 

People just don't care that much about these silly little spending bills.

Specter barely squeaked by 51%-49% in 2004, thanks largely to two big conservatives, Santorum and Bush, strongly endorsing him. 

...with Specter's RINO base (mostly in the Philly suburbs) still registered Republican. That's certainly changed.

[Keystone Phil]

I hate to sound cocky, but look at the Obama results.  We did it while losing the West, some counties we NEVER lost until now. 

Yeah, well, not every election is going to be like 2008. Wake up.

[Keystone Phil]

As was stated, Specter has been disliked by conservatives in this state for years. This isn't just about the Stimulus vote. He's had this coming for a long time. He was very lucky to get by in 2004. Hopefully, we won't let it happen again.

[Keystone Phil]

And it's not like Specter didn't endorse McCain either, unlike alot of other Republicans who took the chance to do so.

Uh...I'm glad you're picking and choosing (or you're just totally ignorant of the situation here which is likely the case) what makes Specter loyal. He's screwed with plenty of other Republicans and Bush when he was the President. Finding some reasons why he supported McCain doesn't make up for it. And if we're just going to use one example to prove how Specter is loyal and Lieberman is a "traitor," please recall the year 2000 and Lieberman's role with the Dems. Thanks.

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Specter has done more in his career to undermine the goals of this party than any of the people that you mentioned.

[Keystone Phil]

I'm not sure how pointing out his voting record and his past endorsements is picking and choosing, but alrighty.

But, as Lunar said, he screws us when we really need him and he's still fairly liberal.

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Specter has been bomb throwing in the direction of conservatives within my party for years. Just because it hasn't been nationally known/didn't happen during a Presidential campaign doesn't mean it's any better.

[Keystone Phil]

Specter isn't fairly liberal outside of less than a handful of social issues (abortion, affirmative action, and amnesty pretty much). On taxes, privatization, guns, school choice, foreign policy, etc. he's consistently toed the party line. Considering where he's from, he's probably the best 'conservatives' can really hope for unless they want to focus solely on goober social issues... And in many cases that's a clear losing proposition in the long term.

Specter hasn't been completely in touch with the party on taxes or spending. As 2004 proved, Specter really doesn't have a problem basically admitting that he doesn't care about wasteful spending.

I think Specter just likes power.  

No! You're kidding me!

I don't want to jinx it just yet because Specter has a habit of surviving but...

Adios, Arlen!

Who's coming to beat him?

Why Pat Toomey of course!

Oh, the arrogance.

Yep, every election in PA will be just like 2006 and 2008. For the rest of time.

[Keystone Phil]

Can Democrats vote in the GOP primary?  I can't remember in PA.

No, we have a normal system. Independents rightfully can't vote in our primaries either.

WARNING! Potential thread hijack in progress!
It may be normal, but it ain't right.  Not that I disagree with the idea of party-only primaries, I just disagree with the idea of party-only primaries paid for and run the state government.  We need to get the government out of the business of supporting the party duopoly by having the government pay for party activities such as primaries.
WARNING! Potential thread hijack in progress!

Fair enough but I support the government paying for third party primaries as well as funding the GOP and Dem primaries.

[Keystone Phil]

Fair enough but I support the government paying for third party primaries as well as funding the GOP and Dem primaries.

Problem is, third parties generally have a hard enough time attracting one candidate for most offices, so even so-called parity in primary financing is still an advantage for the duopoly as they would still get a disproportionate benefit in government sponsored publicity.

...then that's their problem. Sorry.

[Keystone Phil]

Fair enough but I support the government paying for third party primaries as well as funding the GOP and Dem primaries.

Problem is, third parties generally have a hard enough time attracting one candidate for most offices, so even so-called parity in primary financing is still an advantage for the duopoly as they would still get a disproportionate benefit in government sponsored publicity.

...then that's their problem. Sorry.

And what about the taxpayers who don't belong to any political party?  Why should they have to pay for what should be party expenses?

I'm sorry if this sounds nasty and simplistic but that's the breaks.

I understand that parties are private organizations but having to choose between not funding them (which would be a disaster for many state parties) and having people that aren't even members help decide the nominee is awfully unfair.

it is only fair that independents should be able to participate in how they are governed.

I guess we have to apply that to Dems and Republicans as well.

Great time to discuss this..

Here in Philly, we're going to have a very interesting DA primary. Five Dems are running and no Republican (so far...but we're probably not running anyone for strategic purposes). Even with a Republican running, the chances of a Dem victory are insanely in their favor. I attended a forum last night in which four of the five candidates exchanged ideas. I sat there thinking to myself how this has an impact on my life as a Philadelphian but I don't even get a say besides possibly volunteering for one of them. At the same time that I thought about that, I realized that I wasn't all that upset. I'm a Republican and I ought to have a say in the voting booth in my party's process. Using your argument, we'd basically have to let anyone vote in any primary and I think that's probably worse than letting Independents pick and choose what primary to vote in.

If you care that much about a race, change your party a couple times a year. It's happened enough times here. If I cared that much about my vote in the DA's primary, I would be able to leave the party. As you all know, that's not happening.

[Keystone Phil]

If you were a Dem, would you vote for Abraham?  Just curious.  Wouldn't it be funny if a very liberal Dem won the nomination and Lynne Abraham was written in as the Rep nominee.  I could feasibly see that happen in this case.

Oh, boy. Now you're going to get me going. I'm starting to follow this race a bit and I attended a forum at Temple where four of the five candidates participated.

Yes, I would. I like Abraham. I'm leaning towards Grady and McElhattan in this one. I felt that way before the forum anyway. I have to admit that my problem with McCaffery is that he's a McCaffery. His brother, Seamus, is seen as a very conservative Democrat but my problem isn't with policy positions of the family; it's that they're trying to become another Philly dynasty. So many white Dems will be voting for McCaffery just because he's a McCaffery. I'm sure my Dad will want McCaffery mainly because he's a McCaffery (Seamus was my one of my Dad's superiors in the Air Force and my Dad, like many others, can't tell you enough how "tough on crime" Seamus is) but he doesn't get to vote since he's a Republican as well. McCaffery is going to be the candidate for the leadership here in the NE. The NE and white areas of South Philly will be McCaffery's strongholds and only shot at winning this.

McElhattan arrived at the forum with probably ten minutes left due to a prior committment but his answer to the last question and his closing statement were powerful. Grady was pretty awesome. He's definitely competing with McCaffery to be the "no nonsense, straight talking" candidate in this race. He comes across as your average guy but you can tell that he's very smart. I think I'm going to end up wanting Grady but the problem is that he's one of three - that's one of three white candidates in a five candidate race. Grady won't last because he's coming in fourth in the money race and that probably won't change. McCaffery and McElhattan have all the white, machine support. It won't really matter for them anyway. Unless Turner becomes a serious challenger for Williams among black voters, no white candidate is winning this primary (especially when there is more than one white in the race). Sorry but that's just the way it works.

By the way, McElhattan is a former City Councilman. He beat Jack Kelly in a close race in 1991 which is a plus in my book but lost to the infamous Rick Mariano in the 1995 primary. That is one insane Council district with some very unique former Councilmen.

The two black candidates - Seth Williams and Mike Turner - are both too liberal for me though I'll give credit to Turner (who is probably more liberal) for coming across as possibly the most educated candidate. I think he'll be the guy who appeals to the fringe left in the primary. I don't see him doing well with blacks in general since he's not as well known as Williams and he doesn't have the money to compete with these guys.

Basically, unless something big happens (two of the white candidates drop out), Seth Williams is our next DA. I'm not thrilled.

Interesting fact: At least four of the five candidates for DA are Roman Catholic. I don't know Turner's religious affiliation. Yes, that includes Williams. In fact, Williams makes it a point to stress his Catholic background/activities on his literature! He states how he's a Eucharistic Minister and a member of the Board at Catholic Social Services. Grady also puts a lot of emphasis on his Catholic background on his website biography and on his issues page. He's a big believer in faith based initiatives to work with those who committ misdemeanors.

I might post a seperate topic on this if the race really heats up. I know Williams received a lot of attention in 2005 among the national progressive "netroots." If it gets interesting and the thread will be more than just me and you going back and forth, I'll start it up. Otherwise, well, we don't need another PA 13 thread. 

[Keystone Phil]

By the way, I failed to mention that Grady is from Roxborough. I always found that to be an interesting political question mark area. I'm sure Grady will run up some good numbers there if he stays in the race. Other than that, he'll need some miracle like McCaffery and McElhattan dropping out (don't bet any amount of money on the former ending his bid).

[Keystone Phil]

Wow, you know a lot about this race.  All I'll say is I'm surprised none of the more conservative ones run as Republicans.  Philadelphia Democratic primaries are absolute bloodbaths, but the General is always.. Meh, Dem wins..  It's amazing someone could theoretically only pull a 20ish percent of the vote in the primary and could eventually be elected.  If anything, that would give conservatives hope in the city, but could make elections like Europe with coalition-type primaries.         

We have strategic reasons with other races for not running anyone.

[Keystone Phil]

Wow, you know a lot about this race.  All I'll say is I'm surprised none of the more conservative ones run as Republicans.  Philadelphia Democratic primaries are absolute bloodbaths, but the General is always.. Meh, Dem wins..  It's amazing someone could theoretically only pull a 20ish percent of the vote in the primary and could eventually be elected.  If anything, that would give conservatives hope in the city, but could make elections like Europe with coalition-type primaries.         

We have strategic reasons with other races for not running anyone.

...or not.

I just got word that we're running Michael Untermeyer for DA. Never heard of him? Well, he's a former Democrat. He ran against Sheriff John Green in the 2007 primary. Untermeyer received about 33% of the vote. This is beyond stupid. Sure, Untermeyer has a background as a prosecutor but I remember this guy at a civic group's candidates' forum. He seemed a little...goofy. Once again, I'm not pleased with the decision by our party to endorse this guy. Oh well.