2009 New Jersey Governor's Race

[Keystone Phil]

This has the potential for being a close race. The GOP candidate may only lose by six points this time!

[Keystone Phil]

Has the man I supported in 2005, Ed Furchione (or something similar to that) declared?

LOL

NJ Weedman? Funny you bring him up...I mentioned him at dinner a few hours ago. He has yet to declare.

[Keystone Phil]

Yeah, basically everyone dislikes Lonegan.

[Keystone Phil]

Christie 45%
Corzine 38%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1288

Christie continues to slip...

Watch as the next poll shows something like Christie - 43%  Corzine - 40%

[Keystone Phil]

Christie only leading Lonegan by seven points? Can you guys say "disaster?"

If Christie somehow loses the primary, it might be the most embarrassing defeat for the NJ GOP in modern times and Corzine will win the General by thirty points.

[Keystone Phil]

Christie only leading Lonegan by seven points? Can you guys say "disaster?"

If Christie somehow loses the primary, it might be the most embarrassing defeat for the NJ GOP in modern times and Corzine will win the General by thirty points.

Nine points, not seven, and fifteen without leaners.

Ah, ok. My friend texted me about it and said seven. Either way, horrible news for Christie.

[Keystone Phil]

That's true, unless it drags him to the right and forces him to advertise how conservative he is.

That's the reason Christie is basically trying to pretend Lonegan doesn't even exist. He doesn't even refer to him by name.

That backfires sometimes and clearly isn't working now.

Last I checked, Christie only needs to win the primary by 1 vote. And by beating a hard line conservative in the primary it will bolster his moderate credentials to Independents and soft Dems.

Interesting spin but if he keeps diving in the polls, he might not be able to claim victory over that hard liner.

[Keystone Phil]

I've been mentally thinking Corzeen.

Fairly common error by people outside of the area.

[Keystone Phil]

Lonegan internal polling shows a dead heat. LOL

http://www.politickernj.com/wallye/29272/lonegan-has-poll-showing-dead-heat-christie

Why is that funny? The Quinnipiac poll showed him within single digits.

[Keystone Phil]

Lonegan internal polling shows a dead heat. LOL

http://www.politickernj.com/wallye/29272/lonegan-has-poll-showing-dead-heat-christie

Why is that funny? The Quinnipiac poll showed him within single digits.

He went Zogby-like with the decimals. Lonegan's campaign manager owns the company that conducted the poll. And 70% of New Jersey Republicans don't identify as conservative(54% according to exit polls). Do I need to keep going?

So that poll is ridiculous but that doesn't mean they aren't close to a dead heat (again, based off of what another poll has shown).

[Keystone Phil]

Lonegan internal polling shows a dead heat. LOL

http://www.politickernj.com/wallye/29272/lonegan-has-poll-showing-dead-heat-christie

Why is that funny? The Quinnipiac poll showed him within single digits.

He went Zogby-like with the decimals. Lonegan's campaign manager owns the company that conducted the poll. And 70% of New Jersey Republicans don't identify as conservative(54% according to exit polls). Do I need to keep going?

So that poll is ridiculous but that doesn't mean they aren't close to a dead heat (again, based off of what another poll has shown).

Or you can go with Strategic Vision that shows 40-15 among Likely voters(and more realistic).

And why is that more realistic? Just because you want it to be?

[Keystone Phil]

Lonegan internal polling shows a dead heat. LOL

http://www.politickernj.com/wallye/29272/lonegan-has-poll-showing-dead-heat-christie

Why is that funny? The Quinnipiac poll showed him within single digits.

He went Zogby-like with the decimals. Lonegan's campaign manager owns the company that conducted the poll. And 70% of New Jersey Republicans don't identify as conservative(54% according to exit polls). Do I need to keep going?

So that poll is ridiculous but that doesn't mean they aren't close to a dead heat (again, based off of what another poll has shown).

Or you can go with Strategic Vision that shows 40-15 among Likely voters(and more realistic).

And why is that more realistic? Just because you want it to be?

For plenty of reasons, Christie has been endorsed by every single county Republican party in the state. He has also been endorsed by all the Republican house members(even the super-conservative Chris Smith). He has outraised Lonegan by a long shot, and Lonegan ran for Governor in 2005 and got 8% of the vote in the primary. Lonegan has lost every race he has run in(except for mayor of a small town).

None of that is a reason why he would be polling so terribly (especially the fact that Lonegan has lost every race he has ever run for besides Mayor. Spare us the talking points. Those are reasons he shouldn't be supported, not necessarily why he isn't being supported).

People don't tell pollsters who they want based on who has their county line or who has the bigger/better/most endorsements.

Fundraising matters when you put the funds you've raised to good use.

[Keystone Phil]

What's your obsession of having the most conservative candidate as possible win the primary in order to lose the general election? Your thought process is frankly dumb.

...

Is this serious? I wanted to give you a chance to redeem yourself but I'll just embarrass you instead...

I've said several times here that I do not want Lonegan and that he is a nutcase. I've said several times here that I want Christie. Just because I want someone doesn't mean that they're running a great campaign or that I can't acknowledge when they're faltering/the other guy is gaining.

I point out that a respectable polling firm (a firm with way more respect than SV) shows Lonegan gaining and that suddenly means I want Lonegan? You're a joke poster, dude. Get your damn facts straight about who I support and why I support them. I don't always support the most conservative candidate and I never just support someone because they're more conservative than their opponent(s).

Know what you're talking about before you post.

[Keystone Phil]

For Rowan:

Yeah, basically everyone dislikes Lonegan.

[Keystone Phil]

A few more ringing endorsements for Lonegan from your's truly...

If the voters knew how Pro Life Lonegan is, Corzine would lead by forty.

Steve Lonegan (high name recognition)

High nutjob recognition also.

And DWTL, Steven Lonegan will never be a strong candidate for statewide office in NJ. Ever. Don't ever suggest that.

[Keystone Phil]

You seriously think that Lonegan is gaining based off one poll? Lonegan still has little name-recognition in the state(less than Christie) and has lower favorables among Republicans in that Quinnipiac poll(Christie is at 56-4, Lonegan is at 35-4). If that many Republicans still don't know who you are, I would be hesistant to call that "gaining ground". Also, who's to say that Quinnipiac even has a realistic likely voter model?

I notice no acknowledgment on your part that the idea that I ever supported Lonegan is insane. Not surprising.

How does Lonegan have lower name recognition in NJ? He ran in 2005 and has been heavily involved ever since. The base knows and, sadly, likes the guy.

As for your last point, I don't know what you're trying to say. Whose to say that SV has a realistic likely voter model? Do you want to keep trying to poke holes in the reputation of Quinnipiac just because you don't like their results? If so, we can keep doing the same for SV (whose reputation is actually fairly poor).

[Keystone Phil]

I just showed you the poll that showed that Lonegan had lower name recognition, it was in the same poll that you are touting.

Ok so, at the same time, I can ask why you're touting their favorable ratings (showing Christie higher than Lonegan). 

[Keystone Phil]

LOL @ Lonegan leading Corzine.

The Dem vs. Republican poll is the most telling, of course. Same old New Jersey...

[Keystone Phil]

I'm going to say this now, if Lonegan wins the nomination, I am done with the GOP.

Uh, why? I'll never understand how suddenly people are not members of their respective party just because their candidate loses a primary/the person they dislike wins.

If you're hinging you're party registration on a single primary, you're not really a member of that party anyway. That being said, you never really were a Republican anyway (you told me you only registered that way recently for this primary).

I think you mean you're done with the NJ GOP and I wouldn't blame you. If I was an NJ Republican and that happened, I wouldn't leave the party but I'd distance myself when it comes to involvement. Letting that joke win would be an absolute disgrace.

[Keystone Phil]

I'm actually halfway Republican and halfway Libertarian. I've been that way since 2005.

A Lonegan primary win could put me over into the Libertarian Party.

Uh...why?

Why would Lonegan - a libertarian Republican - winning the GOP primary push you - a libertarian - away from the GOP to the Libertarian party?

[Keystone Phil]

I'm actually halfway Republican and halfway Libertarian. I've been that way since 2005.

A Lonegan primary win could put me over into the Libertarian Party.

Uh...why?

Why would Lonegan - a libertarian Republican - winning the GOP primary push you - a libertarian - away from the GOP to the Libertarian party?

Lonegan is not a libertarian.

He is also a 'holier than thou' type.

How is he not a libertarian? The only social conservative viewpoint he has (to my knowledge) is that he's opposed to abortion.

[Keystone Phil]

I'm actually halfway Republican and halfway Libertarian. I've been that way since 2005.

A Lonegan primary win could put me over into the Libertarian Party.

Uh...why?

Why would Lonegan - a libertarian Republican - winning the GOP primary push you - a libertarian - away from the GOP to the Libertarian party?

Lonegan is not a libertarian.

He is also a 'holier than thou' type.

How is he not a libertarian? The only social conservative viewpoint he has (to my knowledge) is that he's opposed to abortion.

He's pro-death penalty and really, really, REALLY against "fag marriage," too.  And he's opposed to euthanasia and drug legalization.  I'm kinda wondering what libertarian social views he has.

I didn't know about his positions on gay marriage, euthanasia and drug legalization. Interesting.

[Keystone Phil]

So there's still a glimmer of hope for the NJ GOP.

[Keystone Phil]

I know the yard sign wars are pretty meaningless but if they did mean anything, the presence I've seen in South Jersey (on properties, too, by the way) is alarmingly positive for Lonegan.

I saw one Christie sign on a property (it was in Sea Isle City - where I vacation). One. Compare that to about twenty I saw on properties for Lonegan.

Turnout better not be pathetically low because Lonegan could eek out a narrow win. I was told that the polls in 2001 had Franks destroying Schundler and we know how that turned out...

[Keystone Phil]

Here in Ohio I've seen one Lonegan bumper sticker, and none for Christie or Corzine so far.  I think it's pretty clear which way the wind is blowing.

I love this guy.