Can we put the kibosh on the Bradley effect?

[Keystone Phil]

And there's also the fact it was no problem for Obama in the primaries.

Democratic primary

Welcome to the other 60% of the electorate.

[Keystone Phil]

why did Obama lose NH?  (serious question, not rhetorical)

That wasn't the Bradley Effect. Obama didn't underpoll there.

[Keystone Phil]

And there's also the fact it was no problem for Obama in the primaries.

Democratic primary

Welcome to the other 60% of the electorate.

Gross generalization there, pal.

It's not. I'm definitely not saying that race is the only reason why Hillary did so well in the primaries.

[Keystone Phil]

And there's also the fact it was no problem for Obama in the primaries.

Democratic primary

Welcome to the other 60% of the electorate.

why would Republicans need to hide behind the Bradley Effect when wouldn't be voting for a white candidate with similar views?

I was mainly talking about Independents but I think it applies to Republicans as well this year. There's a lot of pressure to at least consider Obama.

And there's also the fact it was no problem for Obama in the primaries.

Democratic primary

Welcome to the other 60% of the electorate.

so you think that Republicans and Independants are more likely to lie to pollsters and say they are voting for a black guy, but then vote against him?  why?

whole theory's never made sense to me.

Why is anyone lying about voting for the black guy? Guilt, pressure to support the "Change" guy this time, etc.

[Keystone Phil]

Race as a political issue was most salient to a small sliver of the electorate. It may have been decisive in NH, but Hillary likely would've won Ohio and PA without the racial vote.

I'm disagreeing that race was the decisive issue in NH but I've been saying what you're saying about OH and PA for awhile now. I don't know why you're repeating it.

[Keystone Phil]

uh, way to miss the point.

1.  if it's not about race, but about change, then why is the Bradley effect only discussed relative to black candidates?

I'm not saying that it's not about race. I think race is part of it.

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I'm just saying that this is a bigger picture now. You have to deal with way more people. You can't just say that because it wasn't present in Democratic primaries that it won't be present in the General.

[Keystone Phil]

I want to agree with that Phil, I just want to understand it.  I would assume that it would be DEMOCRATS who might feel guilty about voting against Barack and not admit it to a pollster, as opposed to Republicans or Independants.  I could be wrong, but I'm having a hard time being convinced I'm wrong since I've yet to really hear an argument that makes sense for why it would be occurring in the general, rather than the primary.

Your comment of "welcome to the other 60% of the electorate" indicated to me you had a sense that there was good reason to suspect this impact would be greater among Republicans and Independants.  I've yet to hear an explanation.

Ok then let's be honest - the very liberal people that tend to make up most of the Democratic base are going to have less of a problem voting for a black person. I think that's obvious. You just wanted me to say it.

[Keystone Phil]

But why would a voter tell a pollster they are voting for obama or are undecided and then wind up voting against him (as opposed to any other candidate who isn't black)?  I had thought that some moderate dems with some sense of guilt that they SHOULD vote Obama might be unlikely to want to tell a pollster otherwise. 

...

Now we're just arguing in circles. The whole point of the Bradley Effect is that people say they want the black guy so that they don't get portrayed or thought of as racists.

It goes back to my little ancedote about my Mom's feelings when Quinnipiac polling called here. My Mom thought the pollster (a black woman) seemed irritated/forceful, kept repeating questions (I guess to get a different answer), etc. Truth be told, I think my Mom was blowing it out of proportion but it got to the point where my Mom felt uncomfortable about giving the pollster certain information and was convinced that there was a bias. My Mom said that she was strongly for McCain and Palin and disliked Obama and Biden but then again my Mom is a strong, partisan (though apparently "moderate") Republican yet she still was hesitant to answer some questions. Now imagine people that aren't as set in their beliefs and think of how they'll respond in this polling.