Biden gets mixed welcome in Philly.. Good read from Philadelphia Daily News

[Keystone Phil]

Being from the area this article refers to I can say this.  Yeah, a lot of older Democrats won't vote for Obama based on race.  However, I don't think it'll be as bad as people think because well... McCain's policies just plain suck plus the fact that a black candidate, Michael Nutter, actually beat a Northeast Philly white Republican by a margin greater than John Kerry beat George Bush even here.  I'm thinking Obama won't pull Kerry's numbers here, especially amongst the older voters, but there are some younger voters going for Obama even though they voted for Bush in 2004.  Unfortunately for the Dems, a lot of people here are old and yes a bit racist, but I still think McCain will pull off the 66th Ward as described in the article and definitely the 55th and 64th as well, but it won't be a landslide.  Kerry won all Philly wards.

Except this isn't a Mayoral race. People have come to accept a black man being Mayor here. This is different. Plus, our Republican candidate was...uh...yeah.

Obama losing any NE wards hurts badly. He's going to lose a few. He's going to come out of Philly weaker than Kerry and Gore. He's going to lose the state.

This is exactly what I have been talking about and people have laughed it off. Maybe some people will think twice next time.

[Keystone Phil]

Mike McAleer, the veteran Democratic ward leader of the 66th ward in the far Northeast, said Obama and Biden haven't closed the deal yet.

"The Dunkin' Donut crowd tells me that we've got everything going for us but Obama," McAleer said. "They can't give me a direct answer. Do I have them right now in the 66th ward? No. But I got 60 days to get them."

Asked what the problem is with Obama, McAleer paused and said: "It's his color . . . I tell them he's half white and half black. He's got a better perspective for everything in this country."

And this is huge.

Mike McAleer is the Democratic ward leader for the major NE ward that borders mine. I don't know McAleer personally but I work/know plenty of people that do know him. I see what he does and doesn't do in the community.

These are the people I am talking about. When I mention that so and so doesn't have a yard sign up or seems hesitant, it means something. McAleer won't have his people pushing Obama on Election day. He has better things to do. McAleer, along with being a ward leader, is part of my State Senator's staff. My State Senator is up for re-election this year. His people will be pushing him.

Several Democratic candidates in the NE are refusing to use the official Democratic sample ballot in November because Obama is at the top of the ticket. I bet McAleer tells his people not to push it either. My State Senator is going to win rather easily but they aren't going to risk it.

Another ward leader in the area (I won't mention who he is...not like that matters to anyone here) was asked by a friend of mine, "What are you going to do now that you guys have Obama?" The ward leader shrugged it off and said, "I focus on the local guys. They get us what we need."

Just remember this, guys. It's so cool that this is getting coverage in my neighborhood, discussing people that I know. It gives me faith that I'm not crazy when I say this stuff. 

[Keystone Phil]

If Obama doesn't carry PA, I'll eat my shoe. Seriously.

Instead of addressing what your own leaders in the state say, you continue to dismiss the idea of him losing the state.

[Keystone Phil]

If Obama doesn't carry PA, I'll eat my shoe. Seriously.

Instead of addressing what your own leaders in the state say, you continue to dismiss the idea of him losing the state.

Almost as bad as continually dismissing every single poll taken in the state since April.

Because I'm actually discussing real factors instead of polls taken months before the election?

I haven't continued to dismiss them. I just refuse to believe that that defines this race.

[Keystone Phil]

I will continue to trust the polls. I never thought Philly was going to give the same margin for Obama as it did for Kerry or Gore. It could still happen depending on how blacks voted in 2004, because we know they will give 95%+ to Obama and they will turn out heavily. But he will lose ground in NE philly and Bucks which he must make up somewhere else in the state. I would guess it is in Amish country and the phila burbs. I want to see some poll where they break down their results by area and compare it to Kerry. Has anyone seen anything like that for PA?

Obama is going to make up his loses in NE Philly and Bucks county in...Amish Country? Seriously?

Uh...yeah...

[Keystone Phil]

I will continue to trust the polls. I never thought Philly was going to give the same margin for Obama as it did for Kerry or Gore. It could still happen depending on how blacks voted in 2004, because we know they will give 95%+ to Obama and they will turn out heavily. But he will lose ground in NE philly and Bucks which he must make up somewhere else in the state. I would guess it is in Amish country and the phila burbs. I want to see some poll where they break down their results by area and compare it to Kerry. Has anyone seen anything like that for PA?

Obama is going to make up his loses in NE Philly and Bucks county in...Amish Country? Seriously?

Uh...yeah...

I meant Lancaster and Chester counties. Those seem to be trending democrat. See the thing is that you guys keep saying Obama is losing everywhere in the state but the polls seem to indicate otherwise. Is there some huge bradley effect going on or something?

Obama will not make up a loss in NE Philly and Bucks with Lancaster and Chester. And, yes, Bradley Effect will be big here.

If Obama doesn't carry PA, I'll eat my shoe. Seriously.

Instead of addressing what your own leaders in the state say, you continue to dismiss the idea of him losing the state.

I trust the polling more than my so-called "leaders'.

...

Yeah, you're right. Don't trust the people that run the ground game. Don't trust the people that make up the Democratic machine and GOTV operations on Election day. The polls are enough to get your a victory.  

Real factors? The polling isn't real? It didn't lie to us in '06, Phil.

Polls don't give you votes. Just watch your GOTV effort. You can keep laughing at me all you want. We'll see what happens on November 4th. Just remember that saying, "The polls said we were winning!" doesn't turn out voters. Polling doesn't make the race; voters do.

[Keystone Phil]

I fail to see why these factors, if they are real, aren't being picked up on in any of the polls out there. You'd think there'd be at least one somewhere along the line that agreed with you.

So Obama will take PA by seven points, right?

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Uh...that's what I am arguing. I just don't think Obama is up by as much as the polls say.

[Keystone Phil]

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Uh...that's what I am arguing. I just don't think Obama is up by as much as the polls say.

Well that is reasonable I suppose. So perhaps the average of Obama +5 is closer to +2 or 3 because of Bradley? If the election is close I think that PA will very likely be close.

PA will definitely be close. This really shouldn't even be up for debate.

Obama is struggling with the base of the party here  - white, blue collar, Catholic voters - and your ground leaders are actually saying it! You can't win PA without them. Yet many here seem to believe that he'll win by more than Kerry did!

[Keystone Phil]

I think there's a pretty good chance of him winning it by 5-7 points. If he does 5 points better than Kerry nationally, which I think he will, he'll most likely see a 3-5 point improvement in PA also.

Now if McCain does 3 or more points better than Bush nationally, then yes he'll probably carry PA. So if you're predicting a 5 point McCain win, then a prediction of PA for McCain is reasonable.

Too bad elections don't always work based on the assinine averages theory.

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Uh...that's what I am arguing. I just don't think Obama is up by as much as the polls say.

Well that is reasonable I suppose. So perhaps the average of Obama +5 is closer to +2 or 3 because of Bradley? If the election is close I think that PA will very likely be close.

PA will definitely be close. This really shouldn't even be up for debate.

Obama is struggling with the base of the party here  - white, blue collar, Catholic voters - and your ground leaders are actually saying it! You can't win PA without them. Yet many here seem to believe that he'll win by more than Kerry did!

Yet I still haven't been told how/where exactly Obama can expand on previous Democratic victories. You can't just say, "It'll happen because it just will!"

[Keystone Phil]

Yeah, pretty laughable to think anyone could possibly do better than the colossus of a candidate that was John Kerry. He after all certainly had the pulse of white working class blue collar voters.

He wasn't George Bush. He had experience. He was white. He was Catholic. He didn't have a Rev. Wright scandal. He didn't make comments about guns and religion.

Sorry but those are huge factors here.

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And that's the problem. Everyone here feels justified in thinking that Obama will win easily because I am convinced that McCain will win. That's fine. I can take that. Just realize that this isn't Casey vs. Santorum.

Uh huh... well maybe Harry is really right about his latest MS race too. I hear they have a good ground game down there.

Not quite the same thing but we could debate that another time.  

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Uh, no, I wouldn't be because it isn't shocking. No one has laid out for me why it would be shocking.

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Uh...that's what I am arguing. I just don't think Obama is up by as much as the polls say.

Well that is reasonable I suppose. So perhaps the average of Obama +5 is closer to +2 or 3 because of Bradley? If the election is close I think that PA will very likely be close.

PA will definitely be close. This really shouldn't even be up for debate.

Obama is struggling with the base of the party here  - white, blue collar, Catholic voters - and your ground leaders are actually saying it! You can't win PA without them. Yet many here seem to believe that he'll win by more than Kerry did!

Demographics change buddy. Democrats have such a huge registration advantage in both PA and OH that they can afford some leakage. How much that leakage is, is of course the most important question. Every poll today will show you that somewhere near 92% of republicans are supporting Mccain while around 80% of democrats are supporting Obama. That is why the polls are close.

Demographics changed that much since 2004. Wow. Interesting.

[Keystone Phil]

Phil, it would be shocking because he has trailed in every single poll since God knows when...

...in polls taken three months before the election.

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Yes because the factors aren't there.

[Keystone Phil]

Phil, it would be shocking because he has trailed in every single poll since God knows when...

...in polls taken three months before the election.

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Yes because the factors aren't there.

lol

Good argument.

[Keystone Phil]

Phil, it would be shocking because he has trailed in every single poll since God knows when...

...in polls taken three months before the election.

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Yes because the factors aren't there.

lol

Good argument.

There isn't one to be had here, I don't think. You seem to be in the same mental state that you were in circa 2006. I guess we'll have to agree to disagree and wait for the election results... again.

And in 2006, one could argue that Casey was a much stronger candidate in PA and I'd concede that point. You have the same mental state that you had in 2006 and guess what? It's not 2006 anymore.

What if there was someone who said the factors were there, said Obama had great organization and ability to turn out voters?

He will have that but that doesn't affect the voters that he needs. You don't win PA by just taking the progressives in Philly and the suburbs.

Where was this almighty Bradley effect in the primary?

What was the RCP average before the vote?

...

That was the primary which only Dems could vote in. Welcome to the other 60% of the electorate.

Phil, it would be shocking because he has trailed in every single poll since God knows when...

...in polls taken three months before the election.

So, these McCain-voting Democrats have been saying they support Obama in the polls because the election is so far away?

It's very weak support. I think many don't want to say that they're voting for the Republican but ultimately will for the number of reasons that I've mentioned.

[Keystone Phil]

I would use some quotes here, but I think I'll make some general comments. 

It's clear Obama will lose about 3 Wards in NE Philly- 55th, 64th, and 66th which he will have to make up for elsewhere along with the possibility of other Wards that were so heavily Democratic for Kerry being a lot closer this time including my own 56th along with a few others.

He's going to lose the 57th and very possibly the 65th (maybe not though since we do have a significant black population in the lower parts of the ward now). The 58th will be close.

 

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Ha. Yeah, exactly, a miracle is needed.

 

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And I can totally respect that argument but the problem is that they can't match the turnout of older voters in areas in the NE and Lower Bucks. If Obama loses the three wards that you mentioned, it's already very difficult for him to recover. I think he's going to lose more and run too close to McCain in others. Please remember that these are wards that Kerry won fairly easily.

Other wards to think about especially concerning the race/religion issues:

The 41st and 45th. How about dipping down into South Philly, too? Bush and Kerry were very close in the 26th. I believe it was the closest ward in the city in 2004! We're expecting to win there, too.

[Keystone Phil]

I'd suppose it's possible that some people in parts of Philly who are secretly opposing Obama might be indicative of a larger statewide trend that could doom Obama. But more likely, they're just one out of many minor independent trends or anamolies within a large, diverse state that probably won't be enough to tilt the outcome on their own. I mean, you can't possibly expect us to believe that you can gauge a state with millions of voters based on personal experience and anecdotal evidence unless there's some other concrete data to back it up. EVERY poll shows Obama up by 4-6%. This is a concrete, statewide trend. I don't deny that the Bradley Effect could come into play, but I find it hard to believe it could be on the scale required to influence the result when there are so many other factors working in the other direction (for Obama).

But this simply isn't anecdotal. I want explained to me how keeps his six point lead when those operating his ground game are conceding that he's very weak up here. This isn't just the PA posters saying it. Read the article. They're not going to push Obama as hard because they know that he's toxic up here. Without an area (heavily populated, too) that Kerry won with 60% of the vote, Obama is done.

[Keystone Phil]

I forgot about the 26th, but here's the thing- There are a lot of blacks in that Ward and the whites there are already pretty Republican.  I call tossup/tilts R.

Fair enough. Still...a loss is a loss. Obama can't afford to lose whole wards in his strongest part of the state.

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But there are also a lot of row home/single home Dems closer to me around Academy Road. Just remember that.

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Eh...I wouldn't say very liberal northern areas. I'll say that Obama wins it but...again...closer than 2004. More problems for Obama...

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41st isn't "too Democratic" when you consider the type of white voters there. You know what I'm talking about. They aren't going near Obama. I'll say that it might be a bit close because of black areas of the ward.

The 45th is another area (John Taylor Country) where the white voters are not happy with the Obama type.

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Not race issues but Obama will struggle because of areas like Somerton and even in parts of Buselton.

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We more than make up for the apartments. I'll agree that that will help Obama but not nearly enough especially not in the 66th.

[Keystone Phil]

This article indicates that working class Dems who are voting against Obama because of his race are rather open about it: I would be surprised if they felt the need to lie to a pollster. I'd be surprised if there's a Bradley Effect; there wasn't one in the primaries.

That doesn't mean that they aren't lying to pollsters. Most people aren't talking to reporters on a daily basis. They're not as open to strangers about it.

[Keystone Phil]

Phil, just because Obama isn't going to perform that well in NE Philly as Kerry or Gore did (and I tend to agree) doesn't mean that Obama's dead in PA.  It's only one small section and might get outweighed by higher black turnout in the city (though black turnout has been pretty high to begin with).

When you're losing areas that Kerry and Gore won with over 60% of the vote, you're in some deep trouble. That's just in Philly. Wait until we get further out west (especially in the southwest).

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This isn't just personal anecdotes. I'm going to believe the Democratic leaders themselves when they say that they can't even connect with their voters on this one. When they can't have a successful GOTV effort like they did for Kerry, they have problems.

[Keystone Phil]

However, I bring up Nutter for this reason- Northeast whites aren't that adverse to voting for an African American which is why I only think Obama will surely lose only 1 Ward in NE Philly and probably 3 others- 2 NE, 1 South.  When it comes to the race issue, I have been pleasantly surprised in the past.  I thought Nutter was only going to get 75-77% because of race.  He got 85% and won handily a lot of the same Wards we've been talking about, even the most conservative.  Will Obama puil Nutter or even Kerry's numbers?  Probably not, but it will be nowhere near Street/Katz territory either.  Obama has cred amongst white voters even here and if he 1. Campaigns heavily with Biden and Rendell and 2. Shows his distance from the John Street, Jesse Jackson, and Al Sharpton types, which he has shown in the past, he has a good chance with a lot of white voters here.

You can't compare this to Nutter.

1) Turnout was much lower.
2) The Republicans ran a very weak candidate.
3) Whites in this city have pretty much resigned themselves to thinking that a black person will be Mayor of this city for the rest of time. That's not the case for the Presidency.

Obama is helped by the fact that he isn't like Street, Jackson and Sharpton. But then his wife makes a comment and then there's Rev. Wright and the Muslim issue...

They just refuse to believe you Phil.....I think a lot of posters don't live in areas where there  is
race tension..So they don't have first hand experience of someone who lives in a big city...

Here in cuyahoga county

Race and ethnicity always plays a huge part in elections..It isn't just race alone though

I remember  a big controversy of someone running for a county wide office changing his last name to Russo

An ethnic  last name Like Russo  or Dimora  is always worth a couple percentage points on election day

It's going to be like that in a lot of areas especially in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan. They refuse to believe me because I have been wrong about big races in the past. That's fine. They can beat up on me for that stuff all they want. Let's just wait until November 4th.

[Keystone Phil]

This article indicates that working class Dems who are voting against Obama because of his race are rather open about it: I would be surprised if they felt the need to lie to a pollster. I'd be surprised if there's a Bradley Effect; there wasn't one in the primaries.

That's why I think the Muslim smear was devised as a cover for racists to avoid having to admit they were voting against Obama because of his race. Saying "I'm not voting for that Muslim slime" is more socially acceptable than "I'm not voting for that n*****"

The are older white Dems who think he is actually Musllim.  I know it's a shame, but people really think that.  I hate to have to bring up race in this, but people here really think that way unfortunately. 

However, I bring up Nutter for this reason- Northeast whites aren't that adverse to voting for an African American which is why I only think Obama will surely lose only 1 Ward in NE Philly and probably 3 others- 2 NE, 1 South.  When it comes to the race issue, I have been pleasantly surprised in the past.  I thought Nutter was only going to get 75-77% because of race.  He got 85% and won handily a lot of the same Wards we've been talking about, even the most conservative.  Will Obama puil Nutter or even Kerry's numbers?  Probably not, but it will be nowhere near Street/Katz territory either.  Obama has cred amongst white voters even here and if he 1. Campaigns heavily with Biden and Rendell and 2. Shows his distance from the John Street, Jesse Jackson, and Al Sharpton types, which he has shown in the past, he has a good chance with a lot of white voters here.

Which Street-Katz.  If Obama only wins Phila as strongly as Street did in 1999, he is doomed statewide.  Even 2003 Street-Katz would be a serious problem.

LOL yeah!

If it's Katz vs. Street 1999 then Obama is getting destroyed across the state and the country. That was a two point race. If it's Katz vs. Street 2004 (58% - 42%) then Obama is also done.

[Keystone Phil]

I'm thinking it won't be even close to 2003 Katz-Street.  Obama has consistently polled in the 70s citywide the McCain in the high teens with the rest undecided.  Interestingly that's about what Kerry polled prior to the election.  Look, if it comes down to the economy and War, McCain has problems I don't care how much race i involved. 

Polling shows that McCain does better when the war/national security is the issue.

I don't remember ever seeing a citywide poll but Obama being in the 70s is just where I'd expect him to be. This thing will end 75% - 25% or maybe a bit more for McCain. Bush got about 19%.

I believe that Kerry probably polled in a similar range but he had room to expand. Obama doesn't. If anything, with the Bradley Effect in white areas of the city, we should be expecting worse for him.

[Keystone Phil]

J.J and Phil- You both are forgetting one thing and I know at least Phil will snicker- Biden.  He definitely gives Obama a boost in NE Philly/Lower Bucks whether you like to think so or not.  Might be a few points, but it could be enough to sway a Ward or 2 from going the other way. Palin would give McCain no such boost. 

Biden will not help much at all. Certainly not enough to sway a ward.

I would be amazed if Biden has any impact on Pennsylvania, except perhaps a generic one that is not about Pennsylvania qua Pennsylvania, i.e., with a few odd down market ethnic whites. Why on earth would he? Because he is from Scranton? Because he lives nearby? I ain't buying it. And if there is a God, maybe he will send a few odd Torie types who were going to vote for Obama to the exits. Yes, I find Biden quite repulsive.

Biden is basically in the Phila media market.  If there is a story about him, it's seen in SE PA.  It should help.

He's well known but not that big of a star. People identify with him but not as much as the media is hyping it to be.

J.J and Phil- You both are forgetting one thing and I know at least Phil will snicker- Biden.  He definitely gives Obama a boost in NE Philly/Lower Bucks whether you like to think so or not.  Might be a few points, but it could be enough to sway a Ward or 2 from going the other way. Palin would give McCain no such boost. 

It could, and Palin could boost numbers in the "T" just as well.

If Obama is in the mid 70's in just Philadelphia, he has a problem in Pennsylvania, not a friend.  With Biden on the ticket, low to mid 80's would be expected.

If Hillary Clinton were leading the ticket, she's have mid 80s regardless of VP choice.  If it were Biden, even the more conservative Wards would have 60-65 percent vote totals and possibly a citywide total of the high 80s.

My guess as of now 77.5-21.5-1.  Obama can win statewide with those numbers in Philly. 

No, he can't and Bob Brady disagrees with you. If he's not leaving Philly with a margin of 500,000, you're not taking the state. That's what Brady has said. You're not making up enough ground elsewhere.

However, to say that Obama would be finished by getting mid-70s in Philly is just ludicrous. 

His leaders in the city are basically saying it, not just some McCain supporters. If he's struggling in areas in Philly, you can bet that he's struggling with those same types of voters out west (especially in the southwest corner of the state).

[Keystone Phil]

You think better than 21.5% in Philly for McCain in the end?

For Obama.

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This is the first time a black man is the nominee of a major party so it's a whole new ball game.

[Keystone Phil]

"Do I have them right now in the 66th ward? No. But I got 60 days to get them."

Do we think this has something to do with it?:

http://articles.latimes.com/2008/apr/11/nation/na-streetmoney11

...

How would that have anything to do with it? They'll vote for Obama because their committeepeople will get paid?

The whole money game revolves around GOTV efforts. McAleer is saying that he'll "get" these people for Obama without mentioning the money aspect. In the end, it doesn't matter. McAleer has other races to worry about and he's not going to waste committeepeople (who need to work the polling place pushing other candidates) for Obama GOTV.

[Keystone Phil]

"Do I have them right now in the 66th ward? No. But I got 60 days to get them."

Do we think this has something to do with it?:

http://articles.latimes.com/2008/apr/11/nation/na-streetmoney11

Or...are you saying they won't be pushing Obama because they're not getting street money? That could be a factor but I don't know why you'd use that McAleer quote. He's saying he'll work on getting them (unless you think that's code for "Pay up, Barack.")