Pennsylvania Congressional Races

[Keystone Phil]

Not if they lose PA-06. Not all that likely, but nor are most of the races you point out.

PA 4 is definitley more competitive than PA 6.

We don't really have a shot at PA 8. Murphy has it. PA 11 is a strange one. It could be competitive but expect Kanjorski to win by a few points.

[Keystone Phil]

I would currently agree that PA-04 is really the only seat that Republicans have a real shot at picking up in PA.  Carney seems to be doing much better in PA-10 than anyone predicted a year ago. 

We still have a good shot at the 10th but, as I feared, Carney is on his way to becoming another Holden if we let him win this time.

[Keystone Phil]

What about PA-03?

It's a weird seat with a weird incumbent. The Dems are playing up their chances but English will win in the end.

[Keystone Phil]

I don't know why so many people around here love Melissa Hart so much. She lost in 2006 despite a 2-1 fundraising advantage, and now her fundraising is in the toilet. Altmire has built a moderate voting record in Congress, and besides, it's not like "OMG NANCY PELOSI SAN FRANCISCO LIBERAL!!!" has been working very well for the Republicans.

So she blew her race in 2006. I can't like her now?

[Keystone Phil]

Why did Mike Fitzpatrick not run a rematch?  I think he could have won

He wouldn't have. Murphy is too strong now. Plus, Fitz has some family health issues. He was going to run for State Representative this year but dropped out.

I don't know why so many people around here love Melissa Hart so much. She lost in 2006 despite a 2-1 fundraising advantage, and now her fundraising is in the toilet. Altmire has built a moderate voting record in Congress, and besides, it's not like "OMG NANCY PELOSI SAN FRANCISCO LIBERAL!!!" has been working very well for the Republicans.

So she blew her race in 2006. I can't like her now?

If that's the kind of campaign instincts you want, you're welcome to her.

I think she's learned her lesson. Plus, you still don't give me a reason to not like her record (to generally like her) just because she ran a poor campaign one time.

[Keystone Phil]

I was speaking from an electoral standpoint.

Well, then you'd realize how she's by far our best shot at the seat. Do a little more research on her electoral history (2006 aside).

[Keystone Phil]

And despite his popularity he couldnt get his side a win in his district in April.

And apparently his base in lower Bucks was really unhappy about that move on his part.

[Keystone Phil]

I don't see why that would hurt Murphy anymore than it would hurt Nutter (who also backed the "wrong side" for his constituency.) I wish it would hurt that piece of trash though (Nutter, not Murphy.)

Because the machine unites more easily. I wouldn't say it didn't hurt Nutter a little though.