PA-06: Safe GOP?

[Keystone Phil]

As long as he's guaranteed 51%, he's always safe. 

Anyway, PA 6 has been a major failure for the DCCC. Gerlach will never be completely safe but this is as lucky as he'll get. I'm happy for him. 

[Keystone Phil]

As someone who is right on the border of PA-6, I assure you: The two major guys running are COMPLETE nobodies. One of them ran the Casey campaign in 06, and the other has never held any elected office. Its bad gang, its bad. Ive talked to them both and they seem personable and determined, but they are both gonna be weak.

For the record, Leibowitz is an attorney who actually ran in the 2006 primary against Lois and got about 25% of the vote. I have a feeling he'll win the nomination even though the Casey guy may have the establishment backing. It would be great to see a Casey guy go down and then Gerlach win fairly easily over Leibowitz.

[Keystone Phil]

As long as he's guaranteed 51%, he's always safe. 

Anyway, PA 6 has been a major failure for the DCCC. Gerlach will never be completely safe but this is as lucky as he'll get. I'm happy for him. 

Personally, I always preferred Mike Fitzgerald to Jim Gerlach, but I guess it's helpful (for ideological reasons) that the GOP has at least one Rep. from the Philly suburbs.

Oh, I love Fitz. He definitley is far better than Gerlach, in my opinion. They just don't compare (partly because I had personal interaction with Fitz during and after the 2006 campaign as opposed to Gerlach whom I have never met).

Yeah. Unlike Lois Murphy, they lack money and connection. My bet is Gerlach will break 60%.

Eh, 60% is pushing it. I say 55%.

[Keystone Phil]

You accusing me of overestimating Gerlach's vote share? What has happened to this world?

I know. 

[Keystone Phil]

My bet is Gerlach will break 60%.

Not when Hillary/Obama wins the district solidly.

I don't know about solidly...

[Keystone Phil]

Do you agree with me that Chris Carney has a surprisingly strong chance of being reelected? If he can win in November, he only has to survive one more election until he gets a safer district.

No. I think he has a less than 50% chance of being re-elected actually. I'd like to see some fundraising and see how large Meuser's primary win is first however. I don't see him winning this district in 2008, not with the partisanship, not with the GOP nominee getting in the upper 50s-60%, not with a mildly favorable Democratic year rather than an awesome Democratic year + scandal tarred incumbent, etc.

I think Carney is actually going to be favored. The GOP field is full of weak unknowns (unless Vince Sweeney gets in). You think Meuser will win the primary? I think that's who I'll end up backing.

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Are you kidding? 

I really hope you are. The Dems won the House 102-101. That's the way it was. Voting for Perzel as Speaker wouldn't have changed the make up of the House. I don't know why people don't see that.

Anyway, word is that we're getting the State House back even though we have quite a few retirements on our side that will result in Dem pickups.

[Keystone Phil]

Who cares about the will of the voters or election dynamics, when we can take solace in the "word" of pundits.

Uh, I'm simply saying what people expect to happen. I'm not saying the voice of the people means any less. 

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Do you have access to that information? If so, how in the world did you get it? Are you on the inside or something?

[Keystone Phil]

Who cares about the will of the voters or election dynamics, when we can take solace in the "word" of pundits.

Uh, I'm simply saying what people expect to happen. I'm not saying the voice of the people means any less. 

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Do you have access to that information? If so, how in the world did you get it? Are you on the inside or something?

The DLCC had several operatives on the ground in Pennsylvania in 2006 and they expect to have more in 2008. The DLCC has worked in conjunction with the Democratic Party of Pennsylvania to identify and target winnable GOP House seats. There's nothing sinister or secretive about this...

Well, it seemed secretive because you said they have a "plan." Do you work with the DLCC? If so, what did they say about PA that makes you so sure? Start talking about certain seats, boy (though if you'd like, we can speak about that privately since it doesn't belong here). I'm interested since I am heavily involved in the SE.