Would Hoeffel beat Santorum?

[Keystone Phil]

I suppose he could but the race would still be a tossup. Hoeffel should really have run since most people know him from 2004.

I don't think so. Hoeffel had poor ID throughout the whole campaign.

I think Santorum would have a slight edge.  Hoeffel wouldn't have the same problem with the pro-abortion vote in the Philly burbs, but on the other hand, he'd have no appeal in the "T" whatsoever, so that'd be safe for Santorum.  Plus he bombed in Western Pennsylvania, barely winning Allegheny County even while Kerry carried it handily against Bush.  Even his own victories in his congressional district were hardly landslides, Alyson Schwartz did better than he ever did when she won his seat.  The fact that Hoeffel could only manage 42% against a Republican and a right-wing independent even while Kerry won the state, I think, pretty much was the reason that Dems disqualified him from another run.   I think Hoeffel would pick off Montgomery County, maybe Delaware, but he wouldn't get much further than that.

I agree, for the most part. Hoeffel would have no western/T appeal at all. The SE would be totally behind him but the national party was smarter than that. They went for someone with broader appeal. I also believe Hoeffel's 42% was not that hot. Sure, Specter carries more moderate voters and even Dems in the SE but Hoeffel ran a campaign that tied Specter to Bush every chance it got. Clymer couldn't even help Hoeffel out enough. Bottom line - Joe Hoeffel is a bad candidate. That didn't disqualify him from this race, though. It was the national party going with the best option. Hoeffel could have been a very good candidate who gained 47% of the vote against Specter and Casey still would have got the backing.

I think so.  Let's no forget that Santorum's approval-disapproval is something like 36% approve - 56% disapprove.  He'd need alot of anti-Hoeffel sentiment to pull a win out, and I don't see it.  Clearly it would be closer; Casey's likely going to win by 10%, while Hoeffel would win by less; but Hoeffel would be a solid favorite.

Hoeffel would have very little appeal. Sure, he'd be up in the polls now but no solid favorite. Santorum would most certainly be able to tear into Hoeffel more easily than he would for Casey and people wouldn't care. They don't no or like Hoeffel so I doubt they'd be rushing to his defense.

[Keystone Phil]

I agree that Hoeffel is a weak candidate. In the House, he ran behind Gore in his congressional district. That said, he would still beat Santorum because the race would be about party and ideology, not Hoeffel.

And in terms of ideology and how much each has done while in office, Santorum wins. The race is never always about party, nclib, so stop living in your fantasy world.

[Keystone Phil]

I do think however Allyson Schwartz would do better than Joe Hoeffel in a matchup against Santorum.  Allyson is a better speaker and fundraiser than Hoeffel and did much better against Melissa Brown while Hoeffel almost blew 2002.  Women would turn out more for her and this is part of my concern with Casey.

And the rest of PA would turn out completely against her. Things were messed up for the GOP in PA 13 two years ago but no way would she have such an advantage statewide.

[Keystone Phil]

See 1992- Lynn Yeakel almost beating the much more moderate and popular Arlen Specter.  I definitely think Allyson would do better against Santorum than Yeakel against Specter.

Yeakel was helped out big time since with Clinton sweeping into office and the focus on the "Year of the Woman" in Congressional races.

Allyson Schwartz could easily be portrayed as a Philadelphia elitist liberal. In a race between Santorum and Schwartz, abortion would be huge and the fact that she ran an abortion clinic would not go over well with the rest of the state. The T and the west (especially the SW) would turn out strongly against her.

[Keystone Phil]

You just love bashing the city you grew up in and live in.  "Elitist Philadelphia Liberal".  Wow!  Just wow!  The AFL-CIO also endorsed Specter that year while I know for a fact Santorum would surely not get it.

How am I bashing the city I grew up and live in? I told you how she'd be portrayed. I don't care if you like it or not; that's how she'd be portrayed. Please don't lecture me about how I view the city either. I criticize the city just as you do but I will very likely choose to remain here so keep your "wow!" to yourself.

While the AFL-CIO wouldn't endorse Santorum, he does have the backing of several unions but I guess they aren't "real" to you. 

You must be logged in to read this quote.

What the hell? This is a prime example of how you just make stuff up. I know many Dems aren't elitist and that's really my point. Many Dems out west would be turned off by Schwartz. You know that would be the case, too, since you have admitted that she is even a bit too elitist for your tastes. She's a Chestnut Hill Democrat and that would not be embraced in SW PA where people like Casey has appeal.

 

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Uh, good for you?