Will PA be the next Nebraska/Maine?

[Keystone Phil]

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/05130/501761.stm

The task force is also expected to issue opinions on whether Pennsylvania should have "early voting," allowing residents to cast their votes one or two weeks before Election Day, as is done in Florida, and on whether to apportion Pennsylvania's 21 electoral votes to more than one presidential candidate based on the popular vote total rather than the current system of winner-take-all.

This would be great news for the GOP unless someone like Santorum or another favorable Republican runs (because it would then prevent the candidate from taking all 21 EVs).

[Keystone Phil]

Would it really be like Nebraska and Maine, or more like the proposed Colorado system?

I was confused with it at first to be honest. I just assumed they meant a Nebraska/Maine type deal.

[Keystone Phil]

How many Congressional districts in Pennsylvania did Bush carry in 2004?

Bush likely took the following:

PA 3
PA 4
PA 5
PA 9
PA 10
PA 15
PA 16
PA 17
PA 18
PA 19

That would be 10 for Bush, 11 for Kerry.

[Keystone Phil]

How many Congressional districts in Pennsylvania did Bush carry in 2004?

Bush likely took the following:

PA 3
PA 4
PA 5
PA 9
PA 10
PA 15
PA 16
PA 17
PA 18
PA 19

That would be 10 for Bush, 11 for Kerry.

So you think the Kerry carried 6,7, and 8, while Bush carried 17?

Yes. PA 6, 7 and 8 are held by moderate to conservative Republicans but they go Democrat on the national level. PA 17 is held by a conservative Democrat. The seat was originally a target in 2004 but Tim Holden (the Congressman) is just too popular. It will go GOP once he retires. The GOP pretty much dominates there when it comes to every other race.

[Keystone Phil]

Unlike Nebraska and Maine, Pennsylvania's congressional districts don't tend to vote unanimously for one candidate.  As Phil has said, it's about a 50:50 split, in fact. 

But the GOP dominated State Legislature might see this as the way to stop the Democrats from taking all 21 votes. It could backfire in certain situations (Ex: Santorum in '08) but they might look at this as the best option right now.

[Keystone Phil]

There would be, I imagine, swing districts that would get plenty of attention.

PA 7, 8 and 15 would be good examples.

[Keystone Phil]

There would be, I imagine, swing districts that would get plenty of attention.

Just think of the PA-13 thread!

PA 13 probably wouldn't be a swing unless someone like Tom Ridge decided to run. The district likely went around 55-57% for Kerry last year.

[Keystone Phil]

I thought I read somewhere 15 went for Kerry.  I also wouldn't be surprised if 7 went for Bush.  Bush won Delaware County, which contains a large portion of the 7th district.

Well I know that Lehigh (which makes up most of PA 15) went for Kerry but it was very close - 51%-49%. I was thinking that the Northhampton and very small Montco parts of PA 15 would have been enough for Bush to carry the CD.

[Keystone Phil]

Please no, we don't need a whole thread about the one EV in PA 13 on the forum.

Didn't I say that it probably wouldn't get as much attention as the Congressional race? Granted, in the end, the PA 13 CD race wasn't close but dealing with a Presidential race in this district would be a lot different. There would be discussion but not 70 pages worth of it.