Rothenberg Initial 2016 Senate ratings (user search)
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  Rothenberg Initial 2016 Senate ratings (search mode)
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Author Topic: Rothenberg Initial 2016 Senate ratings  (Read 6484 times)
Keystone Phil
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« on: January 13, 2015, 10:59:31 PM »

Pennsylvania tilting R in a presidential year with generic R Toomey? Right.

Santorum (R): wins by only two points in massive GOP wave. Up for re-election in a Presidential. Won the state by more than Gore (D) did at the same time. And no, the Dem wasn't some horribly weak candidate. This has been disproven enough times.

Oh and Santorum was more polarizing/less respected among Dems than Toomey. So yes, it's possible to be tilt R.

Please stop making me do this.
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Keystone Phil
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Posts: 52,607


« Reply #1 on: January 15, 2015, 08:24:53 AM »

Pennsylvania tilting R in a presidential year with generic R Toomey? Right.

Santorum (R): wins by only two points in massive GOP wave. Up for re-election in a Presidential. Won the state by more than Gore (D) did at the same time. And no, the Dem wasn't some horribly weak candidate. This has been disproven enough times.

He actually was though. He was a terrible fundraiser and got vastly outspent. He performed absolutely terribly in Eastern PA (he even lost Delco for god's sake!) and didn't exactly have an impressing showing in his home turf of Western PA either. I mean, good lord, the guy didn't run a single television ad in the Philadelphia media market! That's something you expect from a some dude perennial candidate, not a member of the House that was supposed to be in a competitive race. Klink was absolutely awful.

He didn't perform terribly in the east and a Dem losing Delco in those days wasn't uncommon. Remember how different the SE counties were back then. Many moderate and liberal Republicans still generally stuck with the GOP (yes, even for Santorum). 

He had a very good performance out west especially when you consider the incumbent Senator was from out there as well. Klink won most of the counties around Pittsburgh.

And I never, ever heard that Klink didn't run a single ad in the Philly market. I'm genuinely intrigued by that statement. I only vaguely remember the other/non-Presidential ads from that you. I distinctly recall a particular Santorum ad. But I find it hard to believe that Klink didn't run anything down here.
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Keystone Phil
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Posts: 52,607


« Reply #2 on: January 15, 2015, 05:38:04 PM »

And remember that this was before Santorum was known as being a bomb thrower. Everyone always knew he was very conservative, but it wasn't until the "man on dog" interview in 2003 that he became known as "that guy obsessed with gay people".

Does this not demonstrate Phil's point that Toomey has a better chance at reelection than he is given credit for?

Given credit for by who? Nobody is saying that Toomey is doomed or is even an underdog. People calling the race "lean R" like Charlie Cook are most certainly overrating him though (I could understand "tilt R" at this early stage, however).

And you can't just quote one part of my post and ignore the rest. Yes, that fact contributes to why Toomey is a better candidate than Santorum. I never denied this. But the main topic over the past few posts has been about how the Democrats will also have a much stronger candidate.

Right, I've never argued that Sestak would be anywhere near Klink territory. But my point is that Toomey is no Santorum who, while not making infamous comments in 2000, was still targeted by Dems and polarizing.

And don't be foolish, my friend: plenty of people say the Dem/Sestak will be favored because "Toomey only won by two in a GOP wave midterm." I'm demonstrating why it's still possible for him to win by a reasonably comfortable margin. Sure, his opponent won't be Klink-esque but he's personally better positioned than even pre-super controversial Santorum.

And your point about Klink not running a single ad here might not be totally accurate since it mentions he wasn't on air three weeks out, not that he never went on at all. Don't get me wrong, that's still horrible but it isn't exactly what you presented.
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Keystone Phil
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Posts: 52,607


« Reply #3 on: January 15, 2015, 07:21:29 PM »

Interesting fact about Klink's lack of ads in the SE. I'll take your word for it since I won't be scanning the entire "Pennsylvania Elections" book. Wink

You sure the DSCC didn't invest anything at all? Wink (They'd be very foolish to have within the final weeks but nothing at all earlier that Fall would be shocking. I don't think they conceded the race that early.)
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