Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread

[Keystone Phil]

While we're speaking about that Harper Poll, here are the results concerning the state's most respected politicians.

http://www.harperpolling.com/polls/pennsylvania-statewide-poll-38065980#respect

Governor Tom Ridge - 24%
Governor Ed Rendell - 22%
Senator Rick Santorum - 21%
Governor Robert Casey Sr. - 18%
Senator Arlen Specter - 15%

Santorum doing that well and above Casey, Sr.? I'd love to believe it but...uh...

Also, Santorum beats Ridge among seniors but loses to Ridge among Republicans?

[Keystone Phil]

PPP claims Corbett's numbers have gotten worse. He now trails every possible Dem opponent.

[Keystone Phil]

Corbett leads Castor 43% to 23% in the latest PPP poll. That's down from 51%-11%. 49% of Republicans want someone else as the nominee. In a match up (which will never happen) between Corbett and Tom Smith, the Governor is only up by four.

Corbett's approval rating is 33%. Disapproval at 58%.

[Keystone Phil]

Yeah, I think this confirms that he's getting a serious primary challenge either from Castor or someone else. At this point, I think retirement is very possible, too.

[Keystone Phil]

By the way, 45% of Republicans disapprove of his job performance. Only 43% approve.

[Keystone Phil]

Corbett is basically coming to a point where, unless he starts recovering right now (like Snyder has), he will lose the primary. His lead over Castor seems to be purely name rec.

Castor himself, as (if I understand this correctly), a conservative but from and liked in Montco, seems to be a pretty strong candidate. Phil?

Castor is generally liked in Montco. He was a very popular District Attorney and top vote getter for Commissioner in 2007 but has hit some speed bumps over the years with people inside the state and local party. In 2011, the GOP lost control of the board for the first time since the 1800s and Castor came in behind both Shapiro and Richards so he got the third of three seats. The divisions within the Montco GOP and a stellar Shapiro campaign are the reasons why that happened. Since then though Castor and the Dems have governed in a very cooperative way, with several publications running stories focusing on the bipartisanship, calling it a model for governance.

I'd say Castor is conservative but he doesn't have the reputation as a saber rattler. So much talk about Castor is about his time as DA, Commissioner and his personality so you don't get too much insight into his ideology. I think most people would say he's a moderate just because of where he's from and his success there. Plus, his very loyal personal following is within a county party known for having been dominated by moderates so that plays a role, too.

Bottom line: we'll have to see if/when he runs just how conservative he really is but don't expect him to be some conservative icon.

[Keystone Phil]

Quinnipiac's findings...

53% of registered voters oppose Corbett's re-election. Approval rating at 39%/disapprove at 49%.

59% of Republicans say he deserves another term but 33% say he does not. He trails all Dems except Knox, Wolf and McCord (surprising) but almost all head-to-head match ups are within three points.

In other news, Casey has a 48%-34% approval rating. Toomey is at 43%-32%.

[Keystone Phil]

For the record, Tom Smith officially announced that he is not running.

[Keystone Phil]

Schwartz is in. She has hired a former Obama operative to handle communications. McCord is also signaling that he's running so this should be fun.

On the GOP side, this has appeared - http://castorwatch.com/

[Keystone Phil]

Toomey considering a primary to Corbet - http://www.politicspa.com/exclusive-toomey-considering-guv-primary-with-video/47009/


An elaborate April Fool's joke by PoliticsPA.

[Keystone Phil]

Aside from the Schwartz-McCord drama, former Revenue Secretary Tom Wolf has jumped in and is pledging to spend $10 million. That will certainly buy some attention for the least known candidate.

[Keystone Phil]

See the 2010 Dem Lt. Gubernatorial primary for the most similar situation. I agree though that it is unlikely in a more high profile race with heavier hitters.

[Keystone Phil]

Schwartz makes it official (Part VIII) - files her PAC today.

[Keystone Phil]

In what is being deemed big breaking news, Joe Sestak's first quarter report shows he raised $460,000. Curiously, most of it came from maxed out individuals on one date - Sunday, March 31st (Easter).

 While his committee is still designated as a U.S. Senate campaign committee, the name has been changed to "Friends of Joe Sestak" and money could be transferred to a Gubernatorial campaign account.

http://www.politicspa.com/breaking-hes-back-sestak-raises-460k-in-q1/47539/

[Keystone Phil]

Making things even more interesting, Chairman Brady said he likes my State Senator - Mike Stack - for Governor. If he actually does this, he's instantly legitimate because of Brady's blessing.

[Keystone Phil]

Latest Quinnipiac headline: Schwartz, Sestak and McCord up 9+ points on Corbett. I'll browse the details later.

[Keystone Phil]

The Governor's approval rating is 38% with 47% disapproving. 50% say he doesn't deserve re-election. Favorability is at 29%.

The Democratic primary numbers: 59% undecided, 15% for Schwartz, 15% for Sestak. No one else is above 3% (which is pretty embarrassing for McCord).

[Keystone Phil]

Castor literally just announced that he is not running for Governor. No surprise.

[Keystone Phil]

Is Sestak running?

He hasn't said.

 

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Castor was the only major official floating a primary challenge. Now that he's out, Corbett doesn't have any major opposition...as of now.

[Keystone Phil]

Sestak is officially out per an e-mail and is said to be considering a rematch against Toomey.

[Keystone Phil]

McCord has formed his committee.

[Keystone Phil]

Talk of Corbett stepping aside or getting a primary has started up again but Castor has emphasized that he isn't going to run.

If Corbett does step aside, look for our Lt. Governor to run. He's a former Bucks county Commissioner who would do well in the SE. He has been a very loyal soldier for Corbett and conservative causes despite a more moderate background. He's also very passionate. Not sure if any other top tier candidates would jump in. Gerlach was interested in it in 2010 but now has a safe seat in the House and is the type that respects the party's wishes if the powers that be unite behind a candidate (in this case, probably Lt. Governor Cawley). Lower tier candidates would obviously run as well.

[Keystone Phil]

Yeah, Voter ID isn't a losing issue for the GOP here. Whatever the case, I don't know where this talk about Turzai for Governor is coming from. He hasn't hinted at it and I highly doubt he'd do it.

Someone like Daryl Metcalfe - the firebrand far right wing State Representative from out west who ran for Lt. Governor in 2010 - might do it. He wouldn't win the primary and would still run for his House seat (as he did in 2010) but he does have a following. In a one-on-one with a total establishment type, he absolutely could make it interesting. The General with Metcalfe as the nominee would be...well...very good for one side and very bad for the other.

[Keystone Phil]

A new poll from Harper Polling shows a generic Republican trailing a general Dem by only one point but when asked about Corbett specifically, only 24% said he deserves re-election. A whopping 56% want someone else.

http://harperpolling.com/polls/pa-poll-state-budget-corbett-reelection#corbett

[Keystone Phil]

A new poll from Harper Polling shows a generic Republican trailing a general Dem by only one point but when asked about Corbett specifically, only 24% said he deserves re-election. A whopping 56% want someone else.

http://harperpolling.com/polls/pa-poll-state-budget-corbett-reelection#corbett

So a pure toss up if Corbett is retiring?

If you just take the generic R vs. generic D numbers, sure. But if that was to happen, we'd see some stronger players on our bench stepping up and I think they'd be more appealing than McCord or Schwartz in a General.