Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread

[Keystone Phil]

Slight chance of the Senate coming to Democrats (about 20%), but the House? No way in hell.

Which is hilarious because no one would have seriously thought the reverse several years ago.

[Keystone Phil]

Correction: Corbett's first announcement location is in Allegheny county. Philly is just a stop on the kickoff tour. Kind of figured this was the case.

[Keystone Phil]

Democrats may have an interesting name for a run in PA-05 against Glenn Thompson



Jay Paterno, son of Joe

He'll get destroyed if he runs. One of Joe's other sons ran (as a Republican) for Congress in the old GOP friendly PA 17 in 2004. Tim Holden crushed him. Jay Paterno is running as a Dem in a safe GOP seat. It won't end well for him.

[Keystone Phil]

Corbett will definitely fire up Republicans against Schwartz but...

[Keystone Phil]

So much for all the talk about stepping aside.

Reported here over a week ago.

[Keystone Phil]

Corbett will kick off his re-election campaign next week.

I think this needs to be reported about three more times in this thread for people to get the point.

[Keystone Phil]

Wagner will decide by December whether he will run for Governor again - http://www.politicspa.com/wagner-to-decide-on-guv-bid-by-december/52825/

The former two term Auditor General ran in 2010 and ran for Lt. Governor in 2002 (as Casey's unofficial running mate) so he is no stranger to statewide contests. Wagner's entrance would be huge not only because of his deep connections and experience with the establishment but also because he will be the only candidate from the west.

[Keystone Phil]

Harper Polling is out with some interesting findings. In the Dem primary, Schwartz leads the pack with 22%. Former DEP Secretary Katie McGinty is in second with 15%. McCord takes 12%, Hanger is at 7%, Pawlowski has 6% and Wolf is in last with 5%. 34% are undecided.

44% say they would prefer a "moderate, more electable Dem" while 38% want a "liberal Democrat who champions progressive issues."

Interesting numbers on abortion: only 52% say it should be legal in most cases with 43% saying it should be illegal in most cases. That part isn't surprising (to me at least). What is: men took a more liberal stance on the issue than women. Younger people continue the recent trend of supporting more restrictions.

http://www.politicspa.com/harper-poll-pa-dems-split-on-abortion-more/52946/

[Keystone Phil]

Basically, Republicans outside of the SE hate it (not to say that there aren't Republicans here that don't like it).

[Keystone Phil]

J.J., didn't that transportation bill raise taxes?

They way they are doing it, it is basically a user fee and hidden:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2013/11/by_the_numbers_transportation.html

It is a nice chance to see people working on projects and saying, "See, Corbett is doing something."

Interesting. Do you think Republican anti-tax voters will be receptive to this argument?

"Conservatives vow to punish Pa. lawmakers who supported gas tax hike"

http://www.pottsmerc.com/government-and-politics/20131122/conservatives-vow-to-punish-pa-lawmakers-who-supported-gas-tax-hike

Some of it are user fees, and I doubt if we would see it coming in.

I basically saw Thornburgh do the same think in 1981-2, successfully.

Are you sticking to the idea that the transportation bill is a positive for Corbett's reelection?

I know I'm not being asked but I'll answer anyway: overall, yes. It will help his standing in the SE. He's getting a lot of praise from Dem leaders down here that were very worried about it not passing. Yeah, he's hitting a few bumps with the GOP but he's used to that now and, quite frankly, I think a large part of his strategy will be charging up the GOP against Schwartz.

[Keystone Phil]

Yeah, that's almost literally unbelievable.

[Keystone Phil]

24% approve, 65% disapprove. Dem primary is wide open with yet announced Wagner just four points behind Schwartz. 42% of Republicans want Corbett as the nominee while 47% want someone else. Several Dems already at 50% against Corbett.

http://t.co/4BFXEu9Okm

[Keystone Phil]

I liked this comment on PPP's PA poll:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

...except people have been saying that about Corbett for at least a year now so...

[Keystone Phil]

There's a significant segment that has been critiquing him for at least that period of time and weren't simply saying he wasn't conservative enough as a talking point. They're really battled him on a number of issues before the legislature. Also keep in mind that a third of Republicans didn't vote for him in the 2010 primary.

[Keystone Phil]

On a related note, Phil, can you explain to me again why Corbett doesn't have a serious primary challenger again? I've seen the polls showing him leading Meehan, Dent, Fitzgerald, etc., but not by that much. When only 42% of Republican voters want him to be their nominee for gov (granted, against that perinially overpolling candidate, "someone else"), you'd think there'd be sufficient grass roots AND establishment support to dump him (and possibly save the GOP's bacon in November by doing so).

Governors are very powerful in Pennsylvania and the Governor is the de facto head of his or her party in almost all states. Should tell you what you need to know.

[Keystone Phil]

Corbett is being challenges for the nomination by Bob Guzzardi - a longtime activist, businessman/attorney and major donor to grassroots conservative causes over the years - http://www.politicspa.com/conservative-activist-mounts-primary-challenge-to-corbett/53515/

Guzzardi is from Montco. He acknowledges he won't win but wants to send a message. Corbett's support for the transportation bill is what pushed Guzzardi into the race.

[Keystone Phil]

I think he stands a good chance at getting a significant percent just based on the protest vote. It's worth noting that Guzzardi has a lot of money but we'll see if he sticks with this.

[Keystone Phil]

Local 98 (the electricians union) endorsed and donated $100,000 to Schwartz. Huge primary endorsement.

[Keystone Phil]

Schwartz is a bad fit statewide for PA (heading an abortion clinic really?). I don't know Rob McCord why hasn't caught on yet, he's the most electable and viable candidate out of the bunch. He has business experience, has been elected statewide twice, and has a African-American wife.

Because being strongly pro-choice is a disqualifier in PA. Just ask Obama's 11 and 5 point wins, respectively.

It will be much more of an issue in a state race especially when Schwartz got her start in politics by opening an abortion clinic and refusing to say whether or not she referred women to "Doctor" Gosnell's house of horrors. That's a little more than being just "strongly Pro Choice."

[Keystone Phil]

Schwartz is a bad fit statewide for PA (heading an abortion clinic really?). I don't know Rob McCord why hasn't caught on yet, he's the most electable and viable candidate out of the bunch. He has business experience, has been elected statewide twice, and has a African-American wife.

Because being strongly pro-choice is a disqualifier in PA. Just ask Obama's 11 and 5 point wins, respectively.

It will be much more of an issue in a state race especially when Schwartz got her start in politics by opening an abortion clinic and refusing to say whether or not she referred women to "Doctor" Gosnell's house of horrors. That's a little more than being just "strongly Pro Choice."

I still remember when Obama's state senate vote on the partial birth abortion bill was supposed to cause his landslide defeat to McCain.

Ok, maybe you're still not getting the difference a) between starting an abortion clinic and possibly recommending women to Kermit Gosnell and voting against a partial birth ban and b) the importance of abortion in state elections compared to Presidential elections. And no one said Obama's State Senate vote on that or any other issue was going to trigger a landslide loss for him. Tone down the hyperbole and stop comparing apples and oranges.

[Keystone Phil]

Eh, I think some swing voters would have an issue with it. It will be seen as being far more than just vocally Pro Choice. And this is a state with many Pro Life Dems. Please don't think it would be a non-issue.

Also, if she has nothing to fear with Gosnell, she would have answered one way or the other on it, right? Well, she refuses to answer. And again, please stop with these idiotic comparisons. It's nothing like an oncologists "being secretly insane and murdering" a patient. There had been numerous complaints about Gosnell over the years.

[Keystone Phil]

Corbett approval up to 36% in latest Quinnipiac poll. Trails all Dems except Hanger. Trails Schwartz by eight and McCord by three.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=1991

Corbett also announced his support for legislation that would ban discrimination based on sexual orientation.

[Keystone Phil]

Hanger is unknown and probably the furthest left of the bunch. It makes plenty of sense.

[Keystone Phil]

McGinty probably benefits as a female candidate and Wolf might already be spending some of his millions with minor advertising. While I totally agree that it's way too early for the general public to know about these lesser known candidates' ideologies, you'll have to at least concede that Hanger must be lesser known than McGinty and Wolf. "Corbett can't possibly be leading any opponent. The poll must be flawed" isn't a good argument.

[Keystone Phil]

Ok so aside from saying they're equally unknown, I don't get your point. Are you arguing that the poll must be flawed because you don't like that Corbett is leading anyone or what?