Italy Local Elections May 2012

[Keystone Phil]

We won Parma? Wow.

So Genoa could be a Right pick up and Palermo should stay put. The rest seem like snooze fests.

I read two weeks ago that PdL and Lega will be running separately in some places. So glad to hear.

[Keystone Phil]

Yes, PdL and Lega are running sperately in quite a few places (especially main towns)

[Keystone Phil]

Any word on how these went on Day One?

[Keystone Phil]

It's definitely time for FLI to lead the Italian Center-Right.   Can some of our Italian friends speak to what, if any, serious benefit Fini and Co. will get from this or will they still get blamed?

These results are damning for PdL. Lega is gobbling up everything in the north. I don't know how to explain places like Palermo. And not making it to other runoffs while 5 Star does? Mind blowing.

[Keystone Phil]

5 Stelle?

Doesn't they usually come last in elections, with small results?

Yep. The fact that they are in runoffs is crazy. Absolutely crazy.

[Keystone Phil]

Of course FLI is doing worse than PdL. It's still a fairly new party but events like this should allow it to emerge as the Center-Right alternative.

[Keystone Phil]

For a party that was about to perform so terribly and assumed to be very unpopular, recent polling nationwide shows PdL only down about six points. In fact, the most recent poll - released May 3rd - has them down by only two points. Of the four most recent polls released in late April, two had them down five and the other two had them down six. I assume it will get worse with the narrative being "PdL collapses!" but I expected worse.

[Keystone Phil]

I'm a fan of the guy that basically runs FLI's youth movement on Facebook. He just posted a status about Terzo Polo being dead. Did something big happen in the wake of the elections?

[Keystone Phil]

Care to elaborate on the scandal?

[Keystone Phil]

Surprised that PdL still trails by only five to six points.

[Keystone Phil]

Surprised that PdL still trails by only five to six points.

Silver lining to the fact that the PdL is polling like 19-22%?

I know the Left has sucked over the past few cycles but their 26% is way down from their usual, too.

By 2013 we'll be like Greece politically.

"We?"

[Keystone Phil]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

"We?"

Italy.
[/quote]

Right...and you live in France and identify as French.   I'm American and follow this stuff but I wouldn't say "we."

[Keystone Phil]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

"We?"

Italy.

Right...and you live in France and identify as French.   I'm American and follow this stuff but I wouldn't say "we."

so I consider myself as a full italian citizen.
[/quote]

Yeah, when elections roll around.

For the record, I've always been vocally supportive of dual citizenship so don't think that I'm taking a shot at that.

[Keystone Phil]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

"We?"

Italy.

Right...and you live in France and identify as French.   I'm American and follow this stuff but I wouldn't say "we."

so I consider myself as a full italian citizen.

Yeah, when elections roll around.

For the record, I've always been vocally supportive of dual citizenship so don't think that I'm taking a shot at that.

Is dual citizenship illegal for US citizens ? If it is, that's a shame.
[/quote]

No, it's not. I wasn't implying that it is.

[Keystone Phil]

No, I'm 100% Italian by heritage and visit basically every other year but I wouldn't get dual citizenship unless I actually lived there.

[Keystone Phil]

Who is next in line if Alfano fails (which, at this point, seems likely)? Is Gasparri in line or how about some younger leaders?

[Keystone Phil]

The idea that the PdL would collapse after Berlusconi is nothing new. Maybe the next elections will kill it. The question, which I asked before, is what replaces it? I hope FLI would rise but I'd guess that a new and weaker center-right party would form.

[Keystone Phil]

Is the M5S even right, left, centrist, or even vagueishly leaning one way, or is it just "we hate all politicians, end of story?"

Definitely the latter.

But leans more to the left, as far as I know.

[Keystone Phil]

Whatever happened in Como?

Yeah, what the...

[Keystone Phil]

Gosh, I really didn't see Parma coming. This is getting really worrying.

Otherwise, though, it was a great day. Fun to see the utter demise of the whole right...

Utter demise? You won local elections in some small towns. That doesn't translate into "utter" demise. You know the next general will be closer and even now, the Left advantage over the Right isn't massive.

[Keystone Phil]

Got "wiped out in all cities in play." I know. I acknowledged that. However, these are mostly small towns and there weren't that many up for grabs.

Gosh, I really didn't see Parma coming. This is getting really worrying.

Otherwise, though, it was a great day. Fun to see the utter demise of the whole right...

Utter demise? You won local elections in some small towns. That doesn't translate into "utter" demise. You know the next general will be closer and even now, the Left advantage over the Right isn't massive.

Phil,I hope you aren't serious,and try to understand that there is no such thing as "The Right".
PdL and Lega will not go together. PdL might not even exist anymore by then,and at this rate whatever party is created in its place might well be overtaken by the M5S.

So,for your mental health's sake,stop dreaming of a "Right-resurrection". The "Left" might not have won massive victories in these elections,but the numbers are pretty clear. Around 60 gains from the center-right out of 140 cities over 15,000 inhabitants.

Just trying to be clear.

"The Right" means whatever major center-right party emerges whether it is PdL or something else. Please don't tell me you think a major right leaning alternative won't even be present. If you don't think there will be a "Right resurrection" by the next general, that's cool. I'm not saying there necessarily will be. However, I think talk of an elimination of right leaning major parties (which is what I understand your posts to be saying) is silly. Wasn't the Left supposedly done after 2008's horrific performance?

[Keystone Phil]

Fini has been a "complete failure" because PdL and Lega were still dominating. If PdL totally collapses, you don't think there's a chance that center-right voters turn to Fini again?

If Italy "isn't the same place it was two years ago," then I'd think both major parties would have disappeared. In reality, PdL is obviously much weaker but still polls within five points of PD!

You guys obviously have a better understanding of this than I do. I'm more than happy to concede that. However, I think too rosy of a picture is being painted for the Left based on some local elections. It looks like both major parties are unpopular (PdL more so, I'll admit) but only PdL is supposedly collapsing. They might take a real beating next time around but I still don't see how the center-right just vanishes. I know it was built mostly around a personality cult but I find it hard to believe that without that personality, center-right voters simply won't exist and/or won't have another major party to which to turn.

[Keystone Phil]

Well,for the moment the PdL voters switched to the M5S...

Dude, in a handful of towns in local elections which had the lowest turnout in memory. Come on.

And I was definitely reading the comments from both of you to mean that the center-right was going to be totally dead.

[Keystone Phil]

Then we aren't really in disagreement on anything here.

By the way, I just read in the Financial Times that while Berlusconi insists he won't run for public office again, there are rumors he might comeback of Alfano can't lead the party to victory next year. Any truth to this?

[Keystone Phil]

Oh great. Well, 2013 will be fun then especially since there's virtually nothing else to follow politically.