PA Gubernatorial Race 2006

[Keystone Phil]

It's never to early to think of 2010. Check out PoliticsPA's rather interesting look at potential candidates.

http://politicspa.com/FEATURES/05longlist2010.htm

Interesting list, and I have heard of a majority of those listed. But one I could not find. Who is this Jim Panyard
charecter?

The list is nutty. John Street for Governor? There was a rumor of him running for Senate awhile back but that was the biggest political joke for awhile. Now after his scandals, his chances of running are way, way down (not like they were that high anyway) and chances of winning go from 1% to 0.5%.

Charlie Dent, Congressman from the Lehigh Valley, should be up there. He's one of the main potential candidates but they have Schwartz up there when we all know she wants Senate in 2010. It's crazy.

Anyway, Panyard is the CEO of the Pennsylvania Manufacturers Association who is apparently running this year (except no one considers him a candidate, not even a minor candidate).

[Keystone Phil]

Street certianly has the ego to run, but I highly doubt (and highly hope) he doesn't win.

The only way Street is going to win another office is if he makes a deal with Fattah, endorses him in 2007 and takes his House seat. There is no way he's that crazy to pursue statewide office especially after the corruption hearings. If he did run, he would have to rely just on Philly in the primary. That's it. Just the city of Philadelphia. More specifically, west Philly, North Philly and parts of Center City. He'd be wasting his time going anywhere outside of Philadelphia (even if he went to downtown Pittsburgh).

[Keystone Phil]

Street certianly has the ego to run, but I highly doubt (and highly hope) he doesn't win.

The only way Street is going to win another office is if he makes a deal with Fattah, endorses him in 2007 and takes his House seat. There is no way he's that crazy to pursue statewide office especially after the corruption hearings. If he did run, he would have to rely just on Philly in the primary. That's it. Just the city of Philadelphia. More specifically, west Philly, North Philly and parts of Center City. He'd be wasting his time going anywhere outside of Philadelphia (even if he went to downtown Pittsburgh).

I never said Street would win, just that he would possibly run.

You said you highly hope that he doesn't win.

[Keystone Phil]

Potential?  Yes, but just that.  I'd say it's more likely that Rendell to win by 10-12 points, and that's not biased, since I'm not that much of a Rendell fan.

Rendell wins by 10-12 points against Swann? How about Castor? I can totally understand that view in a Rendell-Piccola race or even Rendell-Scranton race but I think Rendell vs. either Swann or Castor would have a difference in the single digits.

[Keystone Phil]

Rendell vs. Castor, I'd give around a ten-point win to Rendell, Castor is from the wrong part of the state and won't signifcantly cut down on Rendell's margins (we've discussed that before).

Once again, Rendell's key to victory (and very big victory in Montco) was because of the Rendell Republicans. With Castor as the nominee, there is no way Rendell wins Montco by more than ten points. The committeepeople love Castor there. They didn't care for Fisher. If Castor was the nominee, they'd be working very hard to see him victorious.

He'd also cut into Rendell's big margins in Bucks, Chester and Delaware.

Castor would probably be weaker out west but I have a feeling that Rendell is not well liked across the state. Rendell had that amazing appeal in 2002 and was able to carry some western counties (Allegheny, Greene, Beaver, etc) but it was not by much. Pair Castor with Swann or Pippy and I think he can win them over fairly easily.

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I don't see how the moderation helps. Rendell vs. anybody but Castor means Rendell wins the SE easily and that is where moderation (though Castor is not actually a moderate. Weird situation there.) would be helpful.

If Swann tries to run based mainly on name ID and if he is weak on the issues, Rendell wins. A twenty point Rendell win is absurd, though.

In all these cases, a Rendell win is more likely and if Swann or Castor were to win (they're the only two candidates I really can see winning this thing) I doubt it will be by more than three points.

[Keystone Phil]

The Rendell Republicans are still here, and I think most of them would vote for Rendell over Castor.  Plus some of them are still mad over the attorney general flop.  Yes, Rendell's margins in the suburbs would be down but I would say:
Bucks Rendell by 21
Chester Rendell by 10
Delaware Rendell by 22
Montgomery Rendell by 16
Philadelphia

Those margins plus Castor's weakness out west would lead to Rendell's victory.

As I said in the past, Castor has a lot of power over Montco Republicans. I've seen it first hand. I don't think they're really mad over the AG thing. While I believe Castor was in the wrong with some things concerning his candidacy, his supporters are very loyal.

Montco, which re-elected Castor with about 75% of the vote, would not go for Rendell by sixteen points. No more than ten could Eddie win by.

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Swann vs. Rendell in the Lehigh Valley - Rendell keeps the Lehigh Valley. That area doesn't have the strong union presence it had before. If anything, it's quickly becoming an economically conservative area. I agree that it would help in SWPA.

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I think Rendell would have a lot of fun with that comment and it would probably hurt Swann a great deal but Swann could hit back with stuff about Philadelphia. It doesn't do much in the experience area but focus so much on Philly and people will think (as I'm sure many think now) "He really has been all about Philly, hasn't he?" I think this race could be the east vs. west race we've been waiting for and if Swann can energize the west, he can pull this thing off.

[Keystone Phil]

Expect a Quinnipiac poll for this race tomorrow or sometime very soon. In April, Quinnipiac released their Senate poll on the 21st and their Governor poll on the 22nd. Stay tuned.

[Keystone Phil]

Expect a Quinnipiac poll for this race tomorrow or sometime very soon. In April, Quinnipiac released their Senate poll on the 21st and their Governor poll on the 22nd. Stay tuned.

Castor will not be beating Rendell!  I repeat Castor won't beat Rendell!  Swann won't beat Rendell!  I repeat Swann will not beat Rendell!

Stupid hack. I repeat: Stupid hack.

Rendell is still a lock, huh Flyers? Polls keep showing his approval dropping and disapproval is rising but he's still assured a win, right?

Winfield, I agree with Jake. Scranton is loony but Piccola is the bigger joke.

Scranton actually came close to winning the 1986 Gubernatorial race but if he is our nominee in 2006, he will probably lose by about six to ten points.

[Keystone Phil]

Ratings are out.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11379.xml?ReleaseID=811


Rendell vs. Scranton - 47% - 37%
Rendell vs. Swann - 48% - 36%
Rendell vs. Piccola - 54% - 27%

Republican Primary - Swann - 32%  Scranton - 21%  Piccola - 6%  Undecided - 36%  (Time to jump into the race, Castor!)


1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor?

Approve                 47%
Disapprove              39%
DK/NA                   14 %   



This is the lowest approval rating Rendell has received since April 22, 2004

                      Apr 21   Feb 17  Sep 16  Jul 13  Apr 22
                      2005      2005    2004   2004*   2004**

Approve            49      51         52      54            46
Disapprove        34      33        30      30            33
DK/NA               18      16         17      15             22


This is also one of the highest disapproval ratings Rendell has had on record.


72% of voters believe Rendell has "a lot" or "some" of the responsibility for failing to reduce property taxes.


Finally, 46% believe that Rendell deserves re-election while 41% do not. This is also another low for Rendell since February.

[Keystone Phil]

Looks as if Swann is the best candidate unless someone bigger, Castor or Toomey!!!!, jumps into the race.

Toomey won't. He's staying with the Club until 2010 (Senate race). Email, call, do whatever you can to get Castor in this race! "Unbeatable Eddie" is beatable!

[Keystone Phil]

Question - Will Flyers, Smash and danwxman still insist Eddie is a lock?

[Keystone Phil]

Question - Will Flyers, Smash and danwxman still insist Eddie is a lock?

*yawn*

I'll say it again as I've said it before...Rendell is beatable with a strong challenger and that person has yet to come forward.

The campaign hasn't really even started. All Lynn Swann would have to do is a) win the primary and b) not make himself look like a complete fool.

[Keystone Phil]

I don't think people in Pennsylvania care anymore. They just don't expect relief...ever. If the Republican nominee promises property tax relief, they are going to look like an idiot and nobody will take him seriously.

They don't care? Look at the poll. It's one of the top issues right now and people believe Rendell was the failure.

You really hurt yourself with this. The analysts and the Dems on this board (even some Republicans) went on and on about how strong Eddie is. The fact of the matter is that he is not. People don't like him. He'll have his cash but he's dead out west (no Lt. Gov. candidate can save him) and if the west is energized enough to remove him (I think they're realizing they fell for the superstar in 2002 but it really wasn't worth it at all), then the west can beat the east in this one.

[Keystone Phil]

I think his numbers look rather solid.  If he runs a good campaign he should be alright.  None of his possible opponents are breaking 40%.

None of his opponents are breaking 40% because the campaign hasn't even begun!

Look at his re-elect numbers in general. 46% want him while 41% are opposed. High disapprovals. Lowest approval rating in over a year.

September - 52%
February - 51%
April - 49%
July - 47%

What's next? What will we see come September or October of this year? Remember that that will be the time when his opponents will really start campaigning. What happens if he drops to 45%? Then 43%? When will he not look solid? When will the Rendell supporters realize that he's dead in an area he look rather easily in 2002?

He's in trouble.

[Keystone Phil]

i agree. he has to really work his butt of if he wants to stay Governor.  if he keeps voters the way he is, it could end with a tragic landslide victory for his opponent

I'm not calling for a landslide but I'd be thrilled to see one. 

However, I do see this as possibly Georgia 2002 in the making. Rendell will probably be the favorite throughout the race or maybe it will go tossup but if he loses, it will catch many by surprise. If Democrats in this state keep acting like they have this thing won already, they have a very good chance of seeing a Rendell concession speech.

[Keystone Phil]

As Jake said, the property tax issue and the failure of Act 72 will fade from voter's radar screens by the time the election comes around.

And if the Republican promises relief, it will be seen as a joke. How many times have Pennsylvanians been promised tax relief, without any results?

Act 72 has been out of the picture (for the most part) for about a month and he's still going down.

Ed Rendell is the most overrated elected official in Pennsylvania.

[Keystone Phil]

Not looking good with Castor. I received a reply to an email I sent last night and it looks unlikely that he'll run. I'll share with you two things from the email:

1) He points out the trouble Santorum is in. When I responded, I didn't even bother to point out that he might help Santorum in this area by being on the top of the ballot. This reason alone seems to be enough to end his thoughts of running. If a party is so concerned with one race, it's not worth it to run in another (basically his view).

2) Party leadership. They don't like him. It's that simple. He's the best candidate that we could put up but because he messed around in the '04 AG primary, they can't stomach him. He does, however, point out that things may change between now and Labor Day (I'm guessing that's when he'll make some sort of statement or if he's not running by then, it's over) but points out that someday pigs might fly.  He might run again if his chances get better. We Pennsylvania Republicans can only hope.

It will take his announcement that he won't be running for me to go against what I've been saying all along but in the meantime...

Castor-Swann - The Winning Team for Pennsylvania!

[Keystone Phil]

Is it possible that Castor runs as an independent/ third-party candidate because, as you said, the Republican leadership doesn't like him?

If so, how do you think he'd do?

He wouldn't do that. Unfortunately, when he was acting very foolish, he actually hinted to some of his aides (leaked to the public) that he could run for AG as a Democrat. The idea was shot down and I think he knows to never do that again. He seemed very concerned about advancing the party in his email. Could it be him being a phony? Possibly. However, I really feel he wants a future beyond being Montco DA so he wouldn't bolt.

If he did, though, I'm sure he'd be able to break into single digits in some SE counties, taking away some votes from the GOP nominee. He has a loyal following in Montco.

If the GOP was to nominate a more liberal candidate (Bill Scranton) and Castor was to run, Castor could be the Peg Luksik of '06. Castor is a voiceful conservative and very proud of it (even in liberal Montco). I could see him taking a good amount in the more conservative counties, possibly ending up with a good 12% of the statewide vote. It would also wrap up the election for Rendell. Good thing this won't happen.

[Keystone Phil]

Upon hearing from a family friend, Bruce Castor is not running for Governor next year. My family friend who is related to an elected official from Montco informed me of this news just yesterday. As many may already know, Castor is now looking into a run in PA 13.

[Keystone Phil]

Schwartz will beat him!

Even is she does, it'll be a much close race than you guys would like. You'd have to take some money away from Murphy and the PA 8 Dem candidate.

[Keystone Phil]

Schwartz will beat him!

Even is she does, it'll be a much close race than you guys would like. You'd have to take some money away from Murphy and the PA 8 Dem candidate.

Ever think of this concept- RENDELL AT THE TOP OF THE TICKET!  And no Castor except for the PA 13- HMMM?? 

Rendell at the top of the ticket? Ok? Last year was a Presidential election which means much higher turnout. Eddie isn't going to have a high turnout or even the same turnout as 2004. Hate to break that to you.

[Keystone Phil]

And the Republican nominee will?

The turnout will favor the GOP nominee. And if we nominate Swann (looking like that's what will happen), he might be able to turn out the west for us and as I said before, in a battle of east vs. west, the west can win and I think this time they will. They really don't like Rendell. Could you imagine a Keystone Bowl (Eagles vs. Steelers) next year? The state would be completely divided! (Though I'd side with Eddie when it comes to football    )

[Keystone Phil]

And the Republican nominee will?

The turnout will favor the GOP nominee. And if we nominate Swann (looking like that's what will happen), he might be able to turn out the west for us and as I said before, in a battle of east vs. west, the west can win and I think this time they will. They really don't like Rendell. Could you imagine a Keystone Bowl (Eagles vs. Steelers) next year? The state would be completely divided! (Though I'd side with Eddie when it comes to football    )

If its a Steelers v. Eagles Super Bowl, you can expect to see the Governor LIVE ON COMCAST SPORTSNET!

Comcast SportNet is what's actually going to hurt him the most out west. If there is a Keystone Bowl, he'll really be hurting.

[Keystone Phil]

The poll seems about right though I honestly believe Swann would do better than Scranton.

[Keystone Phil]

http://rasmussenreports.com/2005/Pennsylvania%20Governor.htm

Rasmussen points out that PA might have some of the most interesting races next year, including the Governor race.

Swann's getting 26% of the black vote while splitting the white vote with Rendell.

Scranton beats Rendell when it comes to the white vote but is drawing little support from the black community.