We have an interesting special State House election tomorrow...

[Keystone Phil]

February special elections are very rare, making things pretty interesting but there's plenty more that makes this worthy of attention.

One week after winning his fifteenth term, State Representative Rob Donatucci passed away. Donatucci was part of one of Philly's many political dynasties. His brother is Philadelphia's Register of Wills and the Dems decided to run his widow in the special election. Donatucci's 185th district spans Southwest Philly into parts of Delaware county. It is overwhelmingly Democratic though has some Republican pockets in South Philly. Donatucci won re-election in 2010 with 84% of the vote. Donatucci's widow should have no problem winning the seat except for a few interesting factors: a February special, a snow and ice storm about to hit Philly and a "stealth" Republican campaign.

We're running Lew Harris, a neighborhood activist. Harris is actually a political acquaintance of mine. He's a good guy. That's as far as my editorializing will go.    Lew is campaigning but he isn't as visible as Donatucci has been (which isn't saying much anyway). I think it's fair to say that he's trying to make a big impact with an Election day operation. Lew is aligned with one of the two main factions within our party here and our guys will be helping him out. No one is naive though. This is one of the toughest districts in the state for us. In a regular General election, I'd give our nominee a 0.5% chance of winning but this is different. I'm not saying we'll win but we could see a surprisingly close margin.

The last February special election for a State House seat in Pennsylvania was in 2005. It was a competitive race in a competitive district and turnout was barely over 6,000 voters. This special will be in February during a storm and in Philadelphia. Turnout will be much, much lower. We're expecting two inches of snow on the ground by 10 AM then freezing rain/ice. We're under a Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM Wednesday. Even the South Philly Dem machine will admit that we're looking at turnout so low that the GOP should easily break the 16% we got in 2010.

Another wildcard: Lew is black in what is either almost or already a minority majority district. If any of our demographic nerds (Lewis, Al, etc.) have the exact breakdown, I'd appreciate it. He's known in the community and hasn't always been a Republican.

At the very least, this will give you something to follow if you're bored tomorrow night.  

[Keystone Phil]

    So the PA Republicans are looking to pull a miniature Scott Brown, eh?

This isn't even on the radar. This would be bigger than Brown's win. Of course, our nominee would almost certainly be doomed to a fate similar to Cao's.

[Keystone Phil]

     So the PA Republicans are looking to pull a miniature Scott Brown, eh?

This isn't even on the radar. This would be bigger than Brown's win. Of course, our nominee would almost certainly be doomed to a fate similar to Cao's.

     It would definitely be more unlikely than Brown's win, but it would also receive much less play, which is what I meant when I described it as miniature. Folks care a lot more about a U.S. Senate seat than a State House seat.

Oh, well, obviously.    This would be microscopic in comparison but it would give us plenty to gloat/laugh about at the Philly Dems' expense. 

Like I said, we won't win it but the margin could be a real victory. I heard that they expect turnout to be between 1 and 2% and that was before the storm was forecasted.

[Keystone Phil]

It might have happened a little over seven years ago but Lew actually made news during the 2003 Philadelphia Mayoral election. He was Sam Katz's North Philadelphia campaign co-ordinator and the campaign office which he ran (and I believe he personally owned) was the site of an infamous attempted firebombing two months before the General election.

[Keystone Phil]

We have a thread for these sorts of things, you know.

Yeah, but that's for generic stuff.    It seems like it's just an update on when a special is called, held and who wins. I figured this could generate more attention and discussion on its own since it's an especially unique race even for a special. No disrespect intended. 

[Keystone Phil]

I might be able to check in throughout the day but the updates won't mean much ("Oh, another voter just showed up. They're up to five total voters." ). I have some other campaign business to get done early in the day and then I'm going to either work a polling place or go door to door.

[Keystone Phil]

53% White, 42% Black, 2% Asian, 2% Hispanic. 69% Owner occupied - I suppose it has some Black suburbia?

Yeah, parts of Delaware county.

[Keystone Phil]

I'm heading down now to help with GOTV. I heard that some polling places had a whopping two people turn out so far. The good news for the Dems is that the snow/ice missed us...for now. It might be starting up soon though.

[Keystone Phil]

Well, I was right: the margin was surprising...but in the other extreme.  

You have to hand it to the South Philly Dem machine: when their back is against the wall, they deliver. They lucked out that the snow and ice was almost no existent today but even still, the turnout was surprisingly stronger later in the day. They knew the weather and timing of this special wasn't a positive so they had their committee people out in force. It also didn't help that we ended up doing less than what I thought we were going to do.

The polling place I worked had three precincts voting out of there. One had over forty voters, another had about thirty and the Judge of Elections for the last precinct refused to give me the count because he "didn't know" me after admitting that he could tell me but wouldn't. Have to love that South Philly charm. Anyway, once I heard those numbers, I was worried that we wouldn't surpass our 2010 General result. We saw what happened. Oh well.

[Keystone Phil]

ahahahaha

Don't be a douche, dude. You weren't even part of the discussion so to post that "response" just shows that you only wish to be an asshole.

[Keystone Phil]

ahahahaha

Don't be a douche, dude. You weren't even part of the discussion so to post that "response" just shows that you only wish to be an asshole.

Merely because it's a narrative you hear all the time from GOPhers:  "Usually, we have no shot at this inner-city district, but this time it's different!  The seat is vulnerable this time because of inane reason y.  We've nominated a community faith leader, who's black!  We're really excited and energized, and we think we have a great shot at winning!"

Point out where I said that the seat is vulnerable and I'll leave the forum. Point out where I said he has a great shot at winning and not only will I leave but I'll send you a check for $100.

I posted this because of the factors surrounding the special election. February special elections are rare. We were expecting a storm. If this was a special held any other time of year, I never would have posted this.

[Keystone Phil]

Actually agree with wormyguy for once.

On what? I never said this seat was vulnerable. He's just being a douchebag...oh...wait. Yeah, I understand why you agree with him now.

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It was definitely a lot closer since McCain won the 26th Ward (the only Ward in Philly that he won).

[Keystone Phil]

Real swing district.

Please, find where I ever tried to argue that. You have a real incentive to do so, too. If you find it, I'll leave the forum.

42% McCain. This is the best I could do:

Wow, not totally unreasonable! I should take this to someone handling redistricting.

[Keystone Phil]

I would be interested in how the Negro did in the Philadelphia Republican pockets included in the seat.

We won't get Ward and Division breakdowns for awhile since our grand City Commissioners (please note the heavy sarcasm) don't have the information online. They set up a temporary page for the total results coming out of Philly.

Lew probably didn't do well in the Republican pockets since that is where Donatucci lives and her Brother-in-law is the Dem Ward Leader. Like I said, their back was against the wall to perform in a not-so-ideal special election environment and they proved that they thrive in those situations.

Phil nails another PA election.

Do you ever have anything to add aside from trolling? What was your take on the race a few days ago and why didn't you post it here? Didn't know or care what was happening? Great, that's what I thought. So don't troll.

[Keystone Phil]

The local Dems would consider it surprising, too. She won't do that well in a General (which obviously favors the Dems because of turnout) unless she is unopposed and it was a special election in Philly in February while people were worried about a storm. Turnout was higher than expected.

But, of course, the usual trolls will surface to laugh about this despite putting their two cents in before the voting took place. They'll twist my words by saying I said this was a vulnerable seat or that the Republicans are on the rise in urban America because we ran a black candidate. I didn't say either of those things; I commented on the interesting circumstances surrounding this special. I'll take the heat for the margin but it was surprising to most.

[Keystone Phil]

I think the issue is more that there wasn't anything notable about this that required a new thread instead of the one we already have. Strong Democratic seat, Democrat wins. Not interesting. I didn't make a new thread about our special election which is another strong Democratic seat that should be easily held.

No, the issue was trying to make it seem like I said we'd win here, which I didn't. There were circumstances surrounding this specific election that set it apart from your special. Plus, that wasn't even a special, right? Wasn't it a primary? Totally not the same.

[Keystone Phil]

I think the issue is more that there wasn't anything notable about this that required a new thread instead of the one we already have. Strong Democratic seat, Democrat wins. Not interesting. I didn't make a new thread about our special election which is another strong Democratic seat that should be easily held.

No, the issue was trying to make it seem like I said we'd win here, which I didn't. There were circumstances surrounding this specific election that set it apart from your special. Plus, that wasn't even a special, right? Wasn't it a primary? Totally not the same.

And I won't be making a new thread for the special in two weeks which is also a special election in February.

How common are special elections in February there? Are you expecting a snow and ice storm? Even so, that's not as big of a deal there as it is here.

BRTD, frankly, I don't care what the hell you find worthy to be a thread but it would be nice if you would take the attitude here and apply it every time you have the urge to post stimulating topics like "Post your zip code" or "Do you know anyone in the city from the suburbs whose parents are from the city?" Seriously, dude, don't lecture anyone about what thread topics. It's like Jamespol complaining about trolls.

[Keystone Phil]

Of course we don't know if this is a case of South Philly Republicans voting Democratic out of racism or simply not bothering to show up while Dem machine hacks did.

They didn't show up while the Dems did. It wasn't a well publicized race. Few people even knew the Republican was black or that a Republican was running but that's another discussion entirely.

[Keystone Phil]

Republicans loathe a high turnout. The fewer the people voting the better. A good election day is one of gale force winds and 12 inch snow.

It's fascinating the a political party's fortune is defined not be who's voting but by who's not.

The more informed the voter, the better.

40% turnout and more infomed > 70% and uninformed

[Keystone Phil]

I think the issue is more that there wasn't anything notable about this that required a new thread instead of the one we already have. Strong Democratic seat, Democrat wins. Not interesting. I didn't make a new thread about our special election which is another strong Democratic seat that should be easily held.

No, the issue was trying to make it seem like I said we'd win here, which I didn't. There were circumstances surrounding this specific election that set it apart from your special. Plus, that wasn't even a special, right? Wasn't it a primary? Totally not the same.

And I won't be making a new thread for the special in two weeks which is also a special election in February.

How common are special elections in February there? Are you expecting a snow and ice storm? Even so, that's not as big of a deal there as it is here.

BRTD, frankly, I don't care what the hell you find worthy to be a thread but it would be nice if you would take the attitude here and apply it every time you have the urge to post stimulating topics like "Post your zip code" or "Do you know anyone in the city from the suburbs whose parents are from the city?" Seriously, dude, don't lecture anyone about what thread topics. It's like Jamespol complaining about trolls.

Phil, you went on about how while the race wouldn't be won the GOP candidate "would do surprisingly well", and "the margin might be a real vicotry". And then your guy got about a quarter of the McCain vote. And now you're lashing out at people giving you a hard time? And in nasty bitter ways to boot??

Have you bothered to read the responses? Yeah, I'm lashing out at people that had no opinion or feelings about the race suddenly coming in when I was proven wrong to rub it in.

What the hell is your deal with me, dude? You will troll me on any topic. This is a perfect example. You had nothing to say earlier but now want to get on my case not only because my friend lost badly but because I'm pissed at how immature posters responded.

Yes, I was wrong about turnout. I was wrong about the result. Many others felt the same way I did but they don't post here. No one here challenged me on my analysis because they didn't follow it but have the guts to mock me after the fact. Now that takes guts!

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Yes, it was because of me, Badger. They were totally turned off by me. I expect a thank you call from Representative Donatucci any day now. I won this race for her by working for her opponent.

I didn't personally canvass anything. I worked a polling place for two hours and spoke to a grand total of ten voters.

My tone is because I have to deal with responses like "Hahahahaha" and "Phil nails another PA election" from certain assholes here. You'd have the same reaction after simply trying to discuss unique circumstances around a special election. Then there's the fact that my words were blatantly twisted but that's ok. Keep trolling me.

[Keystone Phil]

Get over yourself. I reply to stupid wherever on the forum I find it. Some just produce it in greater quantity....

Just find the humor in it. Laugh at yourself before anyone else does.

I have no problem with finding humor in situations. I don't find humor in certain people that only posted here to mock me. They had no take on the race beforehand but they have no problem rushing to tell me how wrong I was. And I certainly won't find humor in people blatantly twisting my words.

Don't come in here, quote a random post, totally ignore what others say and lecture me about my response when you have no place in the conversation. I'll "get over" myself when you get over trolling me.

[Keystone Phil]

And if you're so interested in replying to stupidity especially when it is so frequently spewed by certain posters, you might want to screen your remarks before pressing "post."

[Keystone Phil]

K. Since discussing the special is only making you angrier: Got any predictions for the general?

The standard 85% to 15%...if we even run someone (which we usually do).

[Keystone Phil]

K. Since discussing the special is only making you angrier: Got any predictions for the general?

The standard 85% to 15%...if we even run someone (which we usually do).

What if there's low turnout?

Hmmmm. Good point.

84% to 16%

[Keystone Phil]

For the record, I wasn't even "working" on it. I was helping out a friend for a few hours at a polling place for one day.