Pennsylvania 2012: Casey's Challenge

[Keystone Phil]

Welch joins the race, addressing his recent party switch right off the bat - http://www.politico.com/blogs/davidcatanese/1011/Casey_rival_heads_off_Democrat_problem.html?showall#


Interesting tidbit from the article: Sam Rohrer is apparently expected to announce that he's running very soon even though I've heard from people close to Rohrer that he probably wasn't going to run.


Announced candidates so far:

Tim Burns
Steve Welch
Tom Smith
John Vernon
Marc Scaringi
David Christian
John Kesinger
Laureen Cummings

Burns and Welch start out as frontrunners in the primary with Smith as the dark horse. If Rohrer does get in, he'll be a favorite (possibly the favorite) thanks to his last statewide run and very dedicated following. Other than Rohrer, I don't see anyone else possibly getting in at this point.

[Keystone Phil]

Sam Rohrer strongly hinted today that he is running. A well placed source that I know said he's doing it.

[Keystone Phil]

Rohrer is officially getting in on Monday. His website is already up. He becomes the frontrunner but the real winner here is Welch as people like Burns, Smith, Scaringi and Vernon (not to mention a few others) split up Rohrer's vote.

[Keystone Phil]

A day after Rohrer's official announcement and he's already leading in a poll. PPP has him at 25% and Tim Burns is at 15% (surprisingly high). The rest of the field:

Tom Smith - 3%
Laureen Cummings - 2%
Steve Welch - 1%
John Vernon - 1%
Scraningi - 0%


51% are undecided or supporting "someone else."

[Keystone Phil]

Name recognition poll.

Of course but Rohrer really does have a very dedicated, sizable following. Despite being the candidate in the PA 12 Special and the General, Burns should not have name recognition that high so I think he ought to be the happiest with this.

This race becomes Welch's to lose if lesser candidates like Vernon, Smith, Scaringi and Christian (who was either not mentioned in the poll or registered worse than Scaringi) really pick up steam. That will split the true believer conservative vote. It won't be that easy for Welch though since I believe quite a few of these candidates will be out of the running by early next year.

[Keystone Phil]

This is the stuff that will make Welch a player in the primary - parody video of Obama and Casey - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eoF3-UemPWQ

I'm sure this will have gone viral within PA GOP political circles by the end of the day.

[Keystone Phil]

Fun fact: I saw a ton of signs supporting him in a write-in campaign for Governor last year. Mostly Amish people.

Many of his fans are very dedicated. If Burns and Smith don't emerge as strong candidates, he'll get the nomination. Otherwise, the three risk splitting up the same vote and Welch has a real shot at this.

[Keystone Phil]

These are actually some good numbers for us - http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/11/casey-continues-to-lead.html

[Keystone Phil]

The article put out an interesting possibility: Is there any chance of Santorum running for Senate after he drops out of the presidential race?

It has been mentioned before but Santorum is now registered to vote in Virginia, I believe.

[Keystone Phil]

Looks like we don't have enough candidates in the GOP primary and a big name might be getting in: State Senate Majority Leader Dominic Pileggi is considering a bid - http://www.politicspa.com/exclusive-pileggi-considering-u-s-senate-bid/29755/


Definitely surprising. He'd have all kinds of establishment support and would be a fundraising powerhouse. This could also seriously hurt Welch.

[Keystone Phil]

This is the stuff that will make Welch a player in the primary - parody video of Obama and Casey - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eoF3-UemPWQ

I'm sure this will have gone viral within PA GOP political circles by the end of the day.

...and now Casey is "unlikely" to appear with Obama at an event in his hometown - http://www.politico.com/politico44/perm/1111/keeping_a_distance_18419369-48a3-42e3-be18-08819a646320.html

[Keystone Phil]

I guess it can be mentioned here: PPP also polled ratings for Toomey. He's at 35% approval with 33% disapproving. 32% are undecided. Corbett's ratings at upside down: 37% approving and 43% disapproving.

[Keystone Phil]

Insiders are calling Pileggi's possible entrance a "game changer" in the primary and I agree. This would seriously hurt Welch but he's vowing to stay in the race - http://www.politicspa.com/?p=29847

Reading the article, the amount of praise being showered on Pileggi by the state GOP's big players makes it seem like he's definitely doing this.

[Keystone Phil]

Pileggi is announcing today that he will not run. Strange timing. I figured he'd allow his potential candidacy to be part of the buzz at this weekend's Pennsylvania Society.

[Keystone Phil]

John Vernon, one of the middle tier candidates, has dropped out. He will be endorsing a candidate in the coming weeks.

[Keystone Phil]

Phil might find this interesting (or not, since it is an internal):

http://www.politicspa.com/smith-internal-poll-smith-leads-senate-primary/30352/

I saw.    It's all over Facebook when you have political friends that are working for Smith's campaign.


I believe the numbers but they're probably a bit inflated for Smith. He's already running ads so that has helped build his name recognition. It looks like good news for everyone else especially Welch. This is a wide open race. Good to see my top three candidates polling within the top four spots.

[Keystone Phil]

Smith has a whopping $4.4 million on hand.

[Keystone Phil]

Tim Burns won the Central PA State Committee straw poll yesterday.


Burns - 32
Rohrer - 22
Welch - 22
Smith - 20
Christian - 2
Scaringi - 1


The "others" should be dropping out shortly with petition circulation season beginning in two weeks. This is clearly a four man race: Rohrer, Smith, Burns and Welch.

[Keystone Phil]

Cummings has dropped out and endorsed Burns. Not that it matters. She wasn't a factor anyway.

[Keystone Phil]

Welch won the Northeast PA State Committee Caucus straw poll with 44% of the vote. Not sure on the exact breakdown but Welch getting that much support in a crowded field is impressive. Kind of surprising that Rohrer didn't win there.

[Keystone Phil]

Continuing with the "Phil talks to himself" thread...

In a blow to Welch, the Southeast caucus voted tonight to not endorse in the Senate race. This is probably because of fellow SE PA candidate David Christian who, somewhat surprisingly, had a Super PAC swoop in to help him out by attacking Welch and Smith in a series of mailers to State Committee members.

[Keystone Phil]

The Governor apparently started calling party leaders yesterday, asking them to support Welch. It wasn't enough to sway the SE caucus but this is a big boost for Welch overall. This likely means an endorsement from State Committee.

[Keystone Phil]

State Committee is holding its endorsement vote right now. Welch is expected to get it thanks to some serious arm twisting by the Governor (I saw some of it first hand when I was up there last night). Not sure why Corbett is pushing so hard for it but he is. This will be a big boost to Welch but Smith will be staying in regardless. Same with Rohrer (but that's understood). Burns might be out.

[Keystone Phil]

Despite the best efforts of almost every candidate other than Welch, the motion to endorse has passed. Welch should have this locked up.

[Keystone Phil]

Welch officially endorsed. No word on whether or not Burns is out.

Which one is Welch? The one who made the aborted run for PA-06 in 2010?

He ran and dropped out in PA 6 and PA 7 in 2010.