Pennsylvania 2012: Casey's Challenge

[Keystone Phil]

No, I think that was a swipe at the establishment in the state that was opposed to him during his candidacy for President.

[Keystone Phil]

And Santorum wouldn't bash Welch. Brabender is consulting for Welch. 

[Keystone Phil]

Does Smith have any redeeming qualities other then his willingness to spend money? Does he have a lot more where that came from?

He has a lot more money.

[Keystone Phil]

I guess we have six more years of Bob Casey Jr. What a disgusting decision for Republicans to back Smith.

Dude, in all honesty, did you think we were favored to beat Casey with anyone else? I mean, I guess your point is that this guarantees it but it was always a steep uphill battle.

[Keystone Phil]

The freak snow storm could give life to Welch's chances - http://www.politicspa.com/campaigns-brace-for-snow-storm/34634/

[Keystone Phil]

Smith wins easily and Casey's nobody opponent gets 19%. The former? Expected. The latter? What the hell?

[Keystone Phil]

The Democrat bench in Pennsylvania looks cooked now, with Altmire, Holden, Sestak, and Murphy all now proven losers.

I wonder who they have left to run against Corbett and Toomey.

What about their Philadelphia Reps?

LOL! We could never get that lucky. I think Schwartz will be too old in 2016.

[Keystone Phil]

Casey leads Smith in the latest F&M poll - 42% to 21%

http://triblive.com/state/1921435-74/percent-casey-obama-smith-poll-voters-senate-campaign-race-republican

[Keystone Phil]

It's not that F&M isn't a good pollster (though Santorum feels differently ). It's just that they don't push leaners so they always have very high undecideds. Always. Other polling has Smith with surprisingly high name recognition but I don't buy that. He had a lot of TV ads and a few mailers before the primary but the race didn't get much coverage at all. I think he's only really known among the base.

[Keystone Phil]

Latest Rasmussen shows Casey up 49% to 38%. Seems dead on.

[Keystone Phil]

Phil, do you expect those undecideds will break any particular way, or are many of them low-information types who might not vote?

Probably a fairly even split with Casey getting a slight edge. If I had to put money on it, as of now, I see it ending 56-57% to 44-43%.

[Keystone Phil]

Casey is making news by refusing to say he won't run for Governor in 2014. When he was pressed for an answer, he said he'd serve out his full term if he wins but he has said that before.

I think 2018 is far more likely but with word that Corbett might not run again, Casey would have a great opportunity (with nothing to lose assuming he wins re-election to the Senate) by running in two years.

[Keystone Phil]

Casey is making a whisper campaign about 2014 governor. It is after all the job he wanted before Rendell stomped him in the 2002 primary.

Beat me by two minutes.

Everyone knows that's what he has always wanted. I don't doubt that he will run again but while 2014 really isn't a huge risk, 2018 is even less of a risk.

[Keystone Phil]

I don't think he wants to go for a third term in the Senate anyway so that negates the idea of a 2018 risk. It's also less of a risk because of the PA pattern: eight years in the Governor's Mansion for one party and then a flip. A lot of people take that pattern very seriously so Casey might fear going for it in 2014 and losing (again).

[Keystone Phil]

The Gubernatorial race is in 2014. The Senate race isn't until 2018 so Casey wouldn't be giving up his seat to run for Governor. That doesn't mean it isn't a risk though even with Corbett looking vulnerable.

[Keystone Phil]

Oh, I understand. I agree, Meehan or Gerlach could be very strong candidates.

[Keystone Phil]

The Tale of Two Smith's - Libertarian Rayburn Smith vs. Republican Tom Smith - http://www.politico.com/blogs/charlie-mahtesian/2012/08/the-third-party-challenge-from-hell-132066.html

Rayburn's signatures are being challenged.

As the article states, Casey, Sr. lost to a teacher and ice cream salesman with the same name (first and last) in his 1978 Dem primary for Lt. Governor. Casey, Sr. ran for Governor in 1986 as the "Real Bob Casey."

[Keystone Phil]

So we have some closer polls here now. As others have touched on, the narrowing is because of Smith’s aggressive ad campaign. He’s even hammering away in the SE. And it isn’t just because Smith is being seen and heard from more: the ads are actually pretty effective. Casey just started hitting the airwaves yesterday (and with two negative ads about “Tea Party Tom”) so he got the wake up call. Definitely spending earlier (and a lot more since Smith will dump a ton into this) than he imagined. It’s important to note though that Smith is still trailing.

[Keystone Phil]

Gerlach wouldn't have had tons upon tons of money to pour into this race. I think he's angling for something statewide down the road though.

[Keystone Phil]

Smith plays the empty chair card against Casey - http://www.politicspa.com/new-more-negative-smith-ad-hits-casey-watch-video/42270/

[Keystone Phil]

Still no debate set (notice the wording: the League of Women voters is trying to arrange something, not the candidates) - http://m.abc27.com/default.aspx?pid=2705&wnfeedurl=http%3a%2f%2fwww.abc27.com%2fstory%2f19784442%2fstill-no-debate-set-in-pas-race-for-us-senate%3fclienttype%3drssstory

[Keystone Phil]

Smith internal from McLaughlin & Associates has Casey only up two.

[Keystone Phil]

I honestly didn't expect this - http://www.politicspa.com/casey-smith-schedule-a-debate-finally/42543/

Turns out Smith's campaign pushed for it more. It will be October 26th in Philly at our ABC affiliate.

[Keystone Phil]

Phil, a while back, you expressed to me that Smith doesn't have much of a shot, that once Casey starts airing ads, it'll be over.

Do you think that's still the case, or does Smith have a legitimate shot at winning this race?

I think Casey is going to hit him a lot harder soon and it's going to be hard to keep this as close as it is now.

[Keystone Phil]

So with a non-GOP pollster finally saying this a close race (two point margin according to Muhlenberg), we should see some real fireworks very soon. Camp Casey must be going crazy.