Pennsylvania 2012: Casey's Challenge

[Keystone Phil]

Tim Burns has dropped out.

I only have to choose between Welch and Smith now but I'm even more undecided than ever before.

[Keystone Phil]

Quinnipiac - Casey has a 46% to 27% approval rating. He has a surprising high 31% approval rating amongst Republicans (there's that Casey name!) but only 8% would vote for him. He leads a hypothetical Republican by twelve - 46% to 34%. 48% say he deserves re-election. In other news, Toomey has a 42% to 28% approval rating.

[Keystone Phil]

PPP showing the typical Casey lukewarm ratings (especially with Dems) as well. Rohrer leading in the primary with about half undecided. I'll post the poll in the poll board...until noticing that Inks did it.

[Keystone Phil]

Welch incorporates Santorum in his first TV ad - http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3Di34-wlq4TB0&v=i34-wlq4TB0&gl=US


Very wise strategic move for a candidate with problems with most of the base. I guess it also helps that Welch's media consultant is also Santorum's but I believe Welch's people also have ties to the Romney campaign.

[Keystone Phil]

Do you know why Welch became a Republican? I read that he was formerly a Democrat.

He was a Republican then switched to Dem in 2008 to vote for Obama in the primary (says he became disillusioned with the GOP on spending matters). He switched back to Republican and voted for McCain but the Obama vote is obviously pissing a lot of people off. Also, while still a Republican, he helped Sestak in 2006.

Welch ran into even more trouble when the Governor claimed that Welch switched as part of Operation Chaos. The problem? Operation Chaos was for people to vote for Hillary, not Obama. This gaffe has hurt Welch even more.

I'm thrilled to be going to the Senate debate next week here in Philly. It's the first time I'll be hearing from the candidates in a debate. Here's hoping I'll decide on a candidate by this time next week.

[Keystone Phil]

Debate tonight at the Union League. I serve on the board of one of the groups that is hosting so I'll be there and hope to finally get a good idea as to whom I'll be supporting. If you're a Pennsylvanian and watch to watch, tune into PCN at 6:30.

[Keystone Phil]

Rohrer has a Perry-esque moment. Freezes for awhile when asked to name a time when Casey was socially liberal, then mentions Obamacare, then freezes again and admits he was caught off guard. Ouch.

[Keystone Phil]

Smith: "...Specter ran in 2010?"

Wow. Rohrer didn't have the biggest gaffe tonight. This is horrible. He doesn't remember candidates he voted for and then asked what Welch had for breakfast three weeks ago. Terrible attempt at a save. Your votes are a little more important, Tom.

[Keystone Phil]

Smith: "...Specter ran in 2010?"

Wow. Rohrer didn't have the biggest gaffe tonight. This is horrible. He doesn't remember candidates he voted for and then asked what Welch had for breakfast three weeks ago. Terrible attempt at a save. Your votes are a little more important, Tom.

I don't trust Welch or his reasons for changing his voter registration. And Rohrer seems to much in the mold of the Buck and Angle, and we all know how their races went. Is there anyone remotely electable even running? What about that former Santorum aide?

Rohrer is a very intelligent and articulate man. That said, I fear a very easy Casey win if he was the nominee. Scaringi - the former Santorum aide - isn't going to come close to winning the primary.

[Keystone Phil]

Smith: "...Specter ran in 2010?"

Wow. Rohrer didn't have the biggest gaffe tonight. This is horrible. He doesn't remember candidates he voted for and then asked what Welch had for breakfast three weeks ago. Terrible attempt at a save. Your votes are a little more important, Tom.

I don't trust Welch or his reasons for changing his voter registration. And Rohrer seems to much in the mold of the Buck and Angle, and we all know how their races went. Is there anyone remotely electable even running? What about that former Santorum aide?

Rohrer is a very intelligent and articulate man. That said, I fear a very easy Casey win if he was the nominee. Scaringi - the former Santorum aide - isn't going to come close to winning the primary.

What makes him unelectable?

Scaringi? Doesn't have the funding, big resume or big backers, quite frankly.

[Keystone Phil]

Smith: "...Specter ran in 2010?"

Wow. Rohrer didn't have the biggest gaffe tonight. This is horrible. He doesn't remember candidates he voted for and then asked what Welch had for breakfast three weeks ago. Terrible attempt at a save. Your votes are a little more important, Tom.

I don't trust Welch or his reasons for changing his voter registration. And Rohrer seems to much in the mold of the Buck and Angle, and we all know how their races went. Is there anyone remotely electable even running? What about that former Santorum aide?

Rohrer is a very intelligent and articulate man. That said, I fear a very easy Casey win if he was the nominee. Scaringi - the former Santorum aide - isn't going to come close to winning the primary.

What makes him unelectable?

Scaringi? Doesn't have the funding, big resume or big backers, quite frankly.

I mean Rohrer.

Comes across as too stiff and far right. His style would kill him in the suburbs. As for his electability in the primary, he has a chance because he probably has the most motivated group of supporters, is more known and is closer to the base but he and Smith are taking from the same group.

[Keystone Phil]

Between Rohrer, Smith, and Welch, who do you like the most, Phil?

Well, I've said for months that I'm undecided between Welch and Smith...

Rohrer is a very nice and sincere guy. I like him for other reasons, too, but I fear that he isn't electable. As for Smith and Welch, I think the debate the other night allowed me to finally make up my mind on this one. Barring a major screw up, I'm going with Welch. I have concerns with all of them but I think Welch is extremely intelligent, acceptable ideologically and stands the best chance at giving Casey a real challenge. His aggressiveness against Smith the other night proves to me that he's ready for primetime.

[Keystone Phil]

Keep in mind that it's an internal - http://www.politicspa.com/smith-poll-smith-leads-senate-race/33955/

Smith - 29%
Rohrer - 14%
Welch - 9%
Christian - 7%
Scaringi - 2%
Undecided - 39%

Not surprised at all at the undecided number even though we are just twelve days away from the Primary. I believe Smith is ahead because of his ads and mail (he is the only Senate candidate I've gotten mail from so far) but I imagine Welch is doing better than 9%.

[Keystone Phil]

I've heard many things about Welch. I've never heard that he was Pro Choice. Are you sure you aren't just saying that because he seems to fit the bill (SE PA Republican supported by the establishment, not the most conservative candidate in the race, left the party at one point, etc.).

[Keystone Phil]

Well, it might not have been from a reputable source because he has yet to be hit on his views on abortion and, believe me, they aren't holding back their attacks on Welch.

As for a maverick from PA, I'm sure Specter or Casey, Sr. are the most interesting. Or are you looking for someone currently in office?

[Keystone Phil]

Richard Schweiker was a moderate to liberal Republican U.S. Senator during the 1970s. You may recognize the name because Reagan tapped him as his running mate ahead of the 1976 convention for ideological and geographical balance and as an attempt to win over PA's delegates.

If you want someone from the state legislature, look into former State Representative John Lawless from Montgomery county. He switched his party several times and ran for Lt. Governor as a Dem in 2002. Also, former Auditor General and State Treasurer Barbara Hafer would be up your alley. She was a Dem then became a Republican elected official (but was always more moderate to liberal) then switched back to the Dems in 2003. She was the frontrunner to take on Santorum in 2006 before Casey was recruited. She was the GOP nominee for Governor against Casey, Sr. in 1990 and lost in one of the biggest landslides in PA history (she only won Montgomery county and her margin of victory was miniscule. This was at the time when the Montco GOP won everything. Reagan refered to it as the best county GOP organization in the country). That was a great race because you had two individuals that didn't fit their respective parties that well. Hafer wanted to run for Governor again in 2002 but claims she was forced out by party leaders for then Attorney General (and now federal judge) Mike Fisher. That helped push her out of the party.

[Keystone Phil]

Wow. You seem to know a decent amount already if you can spout their names like that. I don't think Milne is liberal (though I read yesterday about his connections to the teachers union) but McIlhinney and Greenleaf (who actually ran for President this year in New Hampshire to "prove a point" but had many of his fans scratching their heads) are worth a look.

[Keystone Phil]

I'm involved in one race in particular (not the Senate race) and have said from day one that Santorum's candidacy was a big help to us for turnout. That big advantage isn't there anymore. I don't think it's that horrible because Republicans still have more reason to turn out than Dems (they only have a sort of competitive AG primary) but we obviously won't see the numbers we would have seen if the Presidential primary carried on.

The specific effect it has on the Senate primary is a little complex. PoliticsPA did a "Winners and Losers of Santorum's Withdraw" and listed Smith and Welch as winners while Rohrer was a loser. I mostly agree. The lower turnout typically favors the establishment pick (Welch) while Rohrer and his side clearly had ties to Santorum. With fewer Santorum fans turning out, it could be fatal for Rohrer. However, Welch's supporters are more likely to be Romney supporters and with Mitt not having to compete here/taking a much needed break, turn out among Welch sympathizes could be down, too.

Smith could be the big winner with this because, as PoliticsPA points out, he gets to continue dominate the air with his ads. Smith could really capitalize on Rohrer-Santorum voters not being as motivated in the T. He may also benefit from his hard hitting ads against Rohrer but he has a target on his back, too: Welch and Rohrer are really stepping up the attacks on Smith's history as a Democrat.

[Keystone Phil]

Smith sent out a misleading mailer, saying "liberal" Steve Welch voted for Obama "even after Obama said we cling to our guns and religion and even after government took over healthcare." It has a black and white photo of Welch and Obama above the giant caption "It's true."

Welch didn't vote for Obama in the General and to say he voted for him even after the government took over healthcare is even more of a blatant lie. Disgusting.

[Keystone Phil]

What is the difference between Rohrer and Smith?

Rohrer at least has a record of being conservative and I think he's far more articulate. A lot of questions remain about Smith.

[Keystone Phil]

And Smith was the only candidate to skip today's Inside Story (a Sunday round table debate program on Philly's ABC affiliate for those that aren't familiar) debate.

[Keystone Phil]

Smith's latest internal: Smith 35%  Rohrer 16%  Welch 10%

31% of likely voters are undecided.

[Keystone Phil]

Smith's latest internal: Smith 35%  Rohrer 16%  Welch 10%

31% of likely voters are undecided.

Yeah, word is spreading in GOP circles that state leaders think Smith will win.

[Keystone Phil]

Smith can't win against Casey though. And why isn't Welch on the air anymore in Philly?

Not sure if he'll go back up starting to today but he doesn't have the kind of money many thought and doesn't even come close to what Smith is willing to spend.

[Keystone Phil]

Word from higher ups is that Welch is done/Smith has this.