PA: CNN/Time: Toomey up 4

[Keystone Phil]

New Poll: Pennsylvania Senator by CNN/Time on 2010-10-27

Summary: D: 45%, R: 49%, Undecided/Neither/"Other": 6%

Poll source URL: Full Poll Details

[Keystone Phil]

Again, this seems about right. I'll feel very confident about this one if Rasmussen and PPP put him up by the same amount.

[Keystone Phil]

Who has the momentum?

Honestly, I think it's with Toomey. Sestak got the coverage he needed out of those two or three polls to make it seem like this was going to be a nail biter. A good amount of Dems "came home" to Sestak but I think he has hit his high water mark.

[Keystone Phil]

Sestak needs far more than 75% in Philly (especially in this type of year with such low turnout). The Dems need to break 80%. There's no question about that. As for raw turnout numbers, take a look at the absentee ballot returns in the city. I mentioned the other day that only 8,000 were returned. That's not good for the Dems.

I think Toomey will break 20% or get very, very close. You can continue to label him as an "ultra conservative" but that's not resinating. There are pockets of this city where Toomey will do well. His emphasis on fiscal issues plays far better with moderate Republicans in the downtown areas compared to someone like Santorum. Toomey will also get considerable support in the working/middle class areas of Northeast and South Philly because of anger with Obama/Pelosi/Dems in general.

Just for the record, Santorum did well here in 2000. I think he was around 25%. If a Republican nominee can hit that in Philly, they are on track to win comfortably (see Santorum's six point win in 2000).

[Keystone Phil]

Sestak isn't winning here with 500,000 votes and only get 75% of the vote.

Toomey was born in Rhode Island, and resides in Lehigh Co.

Yes, I know. Relevance?

[Keystone Phil]

Yes, our Republican nominees have been from the two heaviest Dem counties in the state. Not relevant at all. Toomey will do very well in the Lehigh Valley.

Anyway, Sestak isn't winning by ten in all of the suburban counties. As we've seen in a recent poll, Sestak barely leads in his home Congressional district. He might not even win Bucks.

[Keystone Phil]

Yes, our Republican nominees have been from the two heaviest Dem counties in the state. Not relevant at all. Toomey will do very well in the Lehigh Valley.

Anyway, Sestak isn't winning by ten in all of the suburban counties. As we've seen in a recent poll, Sestak barely leads in his home Congressional district. He might not even win Bucks.

?

He led by almost 10 in his district before the Sestak surge happened.

Wrong. A poll out showed him ahead by two or three. The poll I'm citing is on the forum. Which poll are you referring to?

[Keystone Phil]

Just keep in mind that Dan Onorato, a big name in the Pittsburgh area, should help a lot out there.  People are quick to say "oh, well Western PA is becoming more conservative blah blah".  The last time a Pittsburgh native was on the ballot (Klink circa 2000) the vote totals were run through the roof in Allegheny and surrounding counties (Allegheny vote total surpassed the Philadelphia vote total that year).  So I personally feel that Onorato's name will help Sestak's vote total out there...so Allegheny should not be any of any Democrat's concern on November 2nd.  The votes and the margin will be there for Sestak.  The question just becomes how well will he do in Philadelphia, the surrounding Philly burbs and the number of non-Philly-or-Pittsburgh counties in PA can he pick off?

I hate to break it to you but Onorato is a big name but not popular in the Pittsburgh area. Not these days. He's lucky to help himself, let alone Sestak. There is no reason to believe Onorato's name will help Sestak out there. Sestak isn't going to do well out west.

This F&M one which is also on the forum: http://graphics8.nytimes.com/projects/elections/fivethirtyeight/F&M_PA7_1014.pdf

Hmmm, didn't catch that one. Well, he led by only two in this poll taken just a week before the other - https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=125547.0