Wisconsin Megathread

[TJ in Oregon]

So are Dems in Wisconsin just complacent losers? I'm at a loss for words.

This sounds like something that would happen in Alabama.

Hard to find candidates willing to throw themselves into the Priebus/Walker machine's way. The whole state Dem party looks and acts completely spineless. It's not going to take long before moderates/swing voters start getting used to voting R by default.

Looks like Wisconsin Democrats are becoming more and more like Florida Democrats.

The WI Dems have been between a rock and a hard place in the gubernatorial races because a majority of their base wanted to refight Act 10 (the union thing) but the swing voters were/are tired of it. Therefore they've had to either make everything about Act 10 (Barrett) or vapidly pretend it doesn't exist (Burke). If they do the former, they'd tick off swing voters and if they do the latter their base wouldn't be enthusiastic. Thus, the predicament.

[TJ in Oregon]

Burke was actually considered a pretty good candidate for Ds in 2014, IIRC. IMO, this race is Leans R until proven otherwise. I don't see Walker losing unless it's an absolute Democratic wave year.

Burke is a walking example of a candidate pundits think is great because she would have a moderate PM score and say things the media likes (ie. a socially liberal fiscally conservative bent) without offending anyone. The problem for her is that she didn't really project a vision for the state. In the nine months she spent running for governor just about the only issues she gave clear answers on were her support for abortion and gay marriage. So there wasn't any real energy for her.

[TJ in Oregon]

The same people predicting this race and other Wisconsin races as Democrat pickups are those who pronounced Ron Johnson dead on arrival. I just thought I better mention that.

Nah, of course not, but WI tends to be very favorable to Democrats in off-year elections, especially when a Republican is president. I still think Walker's race is Lean R for sure, but the Supreme Court race and the Senate race are probably Lean D at this point, unfortunately. Still, I'm definitely not making any confident predictions at this point, I'll leave that to other users.

But I don't think Republicans should get their hopes up here, honestly.

The State Supreme Court race is an outright toss-up at this point. I don't even think we know who the candidates are yet, and the race is an officially non-partisan spring election. How people claim to know which party will win that is beyond me.

[TJ in Oregon]

The same people predicting this race and other Wisconsin races as Democrat pickups are those who pronounced Ron Johnson dead on arrival. I just thought I better mention that.

Nah, of course not, but WI tends to be very favorable to Democrats in off-year elections, especially when a Republican is president. I still think Walker's race is Lean R for sure, but the Supreme Court race and the Senate race are probably Lean D at this point, unfortunately. Still, I'm definitely not making any confident predictions at this point, I'll leave that to other users.

But I don't think Republicans should get their hopes up here, honestly.

The State Supreme Court race is an outright toss-up at this point. I don't even think we know who the candidates are yet, and the race is an officially non-partisan spring election. How people claim to know which party will win that is beyond me.

Partisan redistricting Crt fight in WI and PA will influence the outcomes of these elections in the Democrats favor. The GOP has maxed many of its gains.  Don't forget the Trump GOP bill that gets rid of medicaid expansion, is the same bill Walker championed(Expanding Obamacare) in his reelection fight.  Dems have reason to believe they will win in 2018.

Oh, I think Tammy Baldwin will win. But the Supreme Court is a non-partisan spring election often done by itself. Its dynamics could be very isolated from the larger context.

[TJ in Oregon]

This kind of stuff is the reason why I always vote for Soglin. He's sorta crazy and hackish in many ways but he'll ensure the hedonists don't totally run amok. I think a helpful comparison is Soglin as the Madison version of Jerry Brown.

That being said, his vision for State Street as primarily a shopping district rather than an entertainment district is silly. There's no way he can fill the place with shops selling knick knacks and incense.

[TJ in Oregon]

Someone was asking about the Minneapolis burbs.

Polk county went from 61-33 Trump to 51-49 Screnock
Saint Croix went from 55-37 Trump to 52-48 Liberals.
Pierce went from 53-39 Trump to 55-45 Liberals.
Dunn went from 52-41 Trump to 57-43 Liberals.

 

What the hell is going on in St. Croix county and surrounding areas? The special election was a huge trend left and now tonight. This place region withstood the Obama Badger state sweep of '08. Hudson just doesn't seem like a place that would be open to voting Dem downballot. It's not known for manufacturing tendencies, wealthy champagne liberalism, and it's mostly white flight from the Twin Cities.

New trends and shifts arise as new voting constituencies form. In this case, it's likely a hard swing against the brand of politics Trump has championed into the Republican party and to the "conservative" brand as a result.

Most likely there is simply a turnout difference between the two parties as far as who would bother showing up for a (nominally) nonpartisan spring primary election.

These numbers look vaguely good for the Democrats but I wouldn't read much into it. The real election is in a couple months. I'm not saying Dallet won't win, but it isn't as simple as adding the two Dems' percentages together and comparing to Screnock.

[TJ in Oregon]

Horrid numbers for the Dems in this poll. Walker treading even with all his struggles means he can only improve in his numbers from here.

Not with a 12% gap in voter enthusiasm.

It will be hard for him, but he's in a better position right now than I thought he would be by the end of his presidential run. Being back to 47/47 really does mean he has a fighting chance to get a third term, especially considering that no one knows the people running against him! Sure, he'll need to find a way to get Republicans to turn out and vote for him, which is easier said than done, but if anyone can find a way, my money would be on Scott Walker.

[TJ in Oregon]

Horrid numbers for the Dems in this poll. Walker treading even with all his struggles means he can only improve in his numbers from here.

Not with a 12% gap in voter enthusiasm.

It will be hard for him, but he's in a better position right now than I thought he would be by the end of his presidential run. Being back to 47/47 really does mean he has a fighting chance to get a third term, especially considering that no one knows the people running against him! Sure, he'll need to find a way to get Republicans to turn out and vote for him, which is easier said than done, but if anyone can find a way, my money would be on Scott Walker.

He's doing his usual run fast to the middle in the second half of the term, after going hard right during the first half and sadly it works. I agree no one knows who he's running against and if it keeps up into the Summer it really does make Evers the best choice as at least he's been on a statewide ballot multiple times.

I doubt that really matters much, considering 66% still don't know who he is. Whomever the Democrats nominate will more or less have a fresh chance to define themselves (or fail to do so) in the general election.

[TJ in Oregon]

Assuming Ryan’s retirement leads to a closer WI-01 race, and reduced morale, how much should Walker worry?

I can't imagine this has much bearing on Walker's chances. If anything, Walker's performance is more likely to have an effect on WI-1.