NH-PPP: Obama up by 12

[TJ in Oregon]

The biggest problem with calling it a 1/64 chance is that you're treating these states' voting as independent events when they are clearly related to each other. A candidate is more likely to carry one swing state if he's already carrying others. There is a good chance one candidate, whether it is Obama or Romney, wins all of those states. That is one of the most likely outcomes.