OH: Quinnipiac University: Obama slightly ahead of Romney/Perry

[TJ in Oregon]

One of the things I like about Quinnipiac is that they break down their polling by region of the state so I can see more of what is happening than from other polling companies. A large part of the reason why Obama won Ohio in 2008 was because he overperformed in NW Ohio by a lot.

This poll shows Romney leading Obama 42-35 in NW Ohio while trailing 42-45 in SW Ohio of all places. The NW also has roughly twice the undecided percentage of anywhere else. Obama's approval/disapproval in NW Ohio is 32/64(!). To compare, Sherrod Brown leads Josh Mandel 50-36 in NW Ohio, compared to 49-36 overall, so the sample seems to be right. NW respondants also said Obama does not deserve to be re-elected by a 62-33 margin, so I'd venture a guess as to how those undecideds will break...

Obama also only leads 53-36 among union households, so I'm guessing the Kasich backlash will be mostly forgotten by 2012.

[TJ in Oregon]

Here’s a little look at the poll by region against some ’08 numbers. The table is organized such that the areas Obama performed better in ’08 in are toward the top.

Region	08’ 2-Party Prez	Obama Approval	Obama/Romney/Und.	Obama/Perry/Und	Does Obama deserve re-election?
NE	58.56-41.44	44-51	49-38-8	47-38-9	47-47-6
NW	54.62-45.38	32-64(!)	35-42-16	39-40-14	33-62-5 (!)
Central	50.70-49.30	48-50	46-44-8	46-41-9	46-49-5
SW	43.70-56.30	45-50	45-42-8	46-40-10	47-46-7
W-Cent	43.65-56.35	41-54	38-50-10	36-49-9	37-55-8