Which states will shift Republican over the next few decades?

[Heimdal]

It will probably be states in the Rust Belt, with populations more older and whiter than the national average. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania will be the first to go, probably followed by Michigan. Maybe Minnesota.

[Heimdal]

What makes Jim Webb so appealing to the white working class? I never perceived him that way, especially given his 2006 campaign. Additionally, what about Mitch Daniels could possibly be socially liberal, or even moderate?

No urban areas will be turning Republican. I'd be far less surprised if they were actually trending more Democratic.

Mitch Daniels doesn't need to be socially liberal to be a successfull candidate. What crushed the GOP in the suburbs (outside of th South) in 2008 and 2006 was that George W Bush and the party seemed incompetent, and too focused on social issues.
Mitch Daniels is obviously a social conservative, but he doesn't let him define him the way it defines Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum. To me it looks like he is defined by managerial competence, that he knows how to run the executive government in his State. I believe that will make him more competitive in the suburbs than any other Republican candidate as of today.

[Heimdal]

For the GOP to become competitive statewide outside of the South and the Midwest several things need to occur.

1. First of all they need to focus on rebuilding the state parties in the Northeast and on the West Coast. Take for example my own state, Connecticut. The state party almost doesn't excist outside of the areas in and around CT-4 and CT-5. That might net you a few Congressional seast in a wave year (although it didn't in 2010), but you wont win in a Presidential election.
They need to bring forth candidates that can apeal to middle-of-the-road voters, which means easing down on social issues and rather stressing fiscal policy.

2. Second of all. The party can't allow itself to be dominated by people like Sarah Palin, Michelle Bachman and Glenn Beck. They might stimulate the Conservative base in places like Texas and Oklahoma, but they are killing us in the Northeast.

3. The third issue is that the party needs to become more tolerant of different opinions. You should be able to be a pro-choice moderate like Olympia Snowe without having people call on you to leave the ancestral party.
Somewhere here we shoud probably reform the primary process. Make it more open to independent voters as well as the Conservatives.

I think these steps wouldn't just help us in Maine, Connecticut and Upstate New York, but also places we have lost ground in recently, like North-Virginia, the Research-triangle in North Carolina and the Los Angeles suburbs.