UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread

[Leftbehind]

I also don't think a 3rd way person will support such an extreme right wing Tory government.

Depends entirely which Blairite you ask: I believe John Rentoul for instance has said exactly that.

[Leftbehind]

South East added:

https://imgur.com/a/ZoPHE

[Leftbehind]

South West added:

https://imgur.com/a/0WQx9

[Leftbehind]

All of England done:

[Leftbehind]

[Leftbehind]

Huh, I would have thought the North had a swing to labour. Wasn't the only region to swing Conservative the North East?

Thanks for the correction - I'd mixed the 2017 Tory & Labour figures for Y&H up in that tab. The image posted above has been replaced.

[Leftbehind]

Lib Dem strength at 2017 GE (the borders were distinguishable in Inkscape, so I didn't think black fills would be too problematic; it doesn't really concern me still because the entire exercise was to show where they weren't a write-off):-



(click to enlarge).

[Leftbehind]

Here is a hypothetic and yet intriguing question: Suppose the UK has a similiar system as France - only candidates with an overall majority would secure their seat in the first ballot, while for every other race there would be a run-off with the two leading candidates. How would the votes of the other candidates have split?

How would LibDem, UKIP and Green voters have voted in a Tory/Labour run-off?
My presumption (completely out of the blue) is as follows: LibDems would have voted 40% Tory/45% Labour/15% abstain; UKIPpers would have voted 55% Tories/20% Labour/25 % abstain; Greens would have voted 10% Tories/80% Labour/10% abstain.

Also, how would Labour voters have split in a Con/LD run-off? My guess is 65% LD/20% Con/15% abstain

And what about Tory voters in a Lab/LD race? I'd say 55% LD/35% Lab/10% abstain. The LD number would of course be higher if it weren't for Brexit.

Of course I'm just an observer from outside - does anybody with more insight in English politics think this could be accurate?

I think Labour voters in most Con/Lib run-offs would be even more generous to Liberals, and vice versa with Conservative voters in Lab/Lib run-offs than your predictions - a Liberal in parliament is one less MP for their opposition to form a government with. In an election defined by hard-Brexit most Liberals will be breaking to Labour.

UKIP breaks about 50% Tory, 25% Labour and 25% abstain from what I've seen and heard - but there's huge difference depending on the seat. Look at Stockton South in the N/E - UKIP collapse but of zero benefit to the Tories, so it doesn't lend itself to simplistic predictions unfortunately.

[Leftbehind]

2010-2014 stands out in just how many polls were commissioned.

[Leftbehind]

Opinion poll graph since 1943 I made.

Beware if you open it if you have a slug computer like mine. The file is moderately large.

http://orig01.deviantart.net/a05d/f/2017/190/3/1/1943_2017_graph_of_uk_polls_by_thumboy21-dbfnp07.png

Source:
https://www.markpack.org.uk/opinion-polls/

Awesome!  I'm intrigued by the period in 1981 when the Liberals were actually ahead in the polls.  Wow.

Brought about by the creation of, and alliance with, the SDP. High profile former cabinet ministers from Labour who were 'moderates' and therefore able to win votes from all parties (although inevitably hit Labour vote hardest - interesting to note Labour under Foot were leading in the polls until the arrival of the SDP).

[Leftbehind]

It's debatable whether LD should be included in the left but I felt under Farron they were left of centre. I wouldn't have included them as left under Clegg.

But this ignores that despite the Lib Dems positioning back to the social liberal wing, they still remain toxic to the broader left following the coalition. That isn't to say they haven't won some left-wing votes back in the minority of seats where they're the only show in town, but that their voter composition is/was likely no more left-wing than it was in the 2015 GE despite the change of leadership.