Will UKIP get more votes than the Lib Dems in 2015?

[Leftbehind]

Also, the areas Liberals are winning tend to be straight Con-Lib fights.

I don't expect UKIP to get >10% at the 2015 GE, so no.

[Leftbehind]

It's a posibility, if crisis gets worse and election gets to be seen as only a formality towards a Labour landslide.

It's just as likely the inevitability of a Labour win would more than likely persuade newly-gained UKIP support back into the Tory fold to stop it. Even though Labour hold substantial leads and enjoy election victories, our Rightist press never fail in the scepticism, influencing the general outlook for Labour, and Tories and other right-wingers are rather complacent, utterly convinced that Ed Miliband's unelectable and that it's only a matter of time (perhaps under the glare of an election battle) he's found out and it all comes crumbling down upon Labour.

[Leftbehind]

Funny that you mention 1983, as that has had a tremendous impact on thinking here in the UK regarding split votes, in a way I don't really believe is reflected in Canada - Canada's parliament seems to have been able to better represent multi-party politics, whereas the Alliance venture just gave Thatcher whopping majorities, and no real opposition to speak of.

[Leftbehind]

I think that difference is crucial, though. The fact that Canada's parliament is much more responsive means that a vote elsewhere isn't seen as as handing the election to the opposition in the way it is in the UK. Just like the Alliance before them, all that will happen is UKIP will get a tonne of votes with very few seats (if any) to show for it, and repeated Labour landslides. Of course if it all depends on how resolved they are - I personally don't see a Labour victory offering much of a threat to them, and perhaps they're thinking that too.

[Leftbehind]

Oh yeah, that's definitely in UKIPs interest, it's when you consider their voter's interest it becomes much less so. The sort of defeat whereby UKIP could overtake them is not at all realistic: UKIP on 15% support would still struggle to win seats (their evenly spread support hinders them as much as it did the Alliance), so they'd need to surpass the Alliance's 25% and achieve a far greater split than 1983, lest by left with a tiny rump (like '83 Alliance's 3.5% of seats, up from 1.7% despite an almost doubling of vote!).

[Leftbehind]

285k

And i've got that scouse UKIP bloke who's name escapes me.

He's their only other (relatively) high-profile face. Token Scouser to sell their bourgeois politics.

[Leftbehind]

I'm working off Wikipedia, admittedly. Greens on 265,243.

Yeah that's the E&W Greens. The UK figure, including their Scot & NI counterparts is 285k.

[Leftbehind]

I know, but it's a fairer comparison to UKIP's total. Although the BBC did state it as one, which is where the initial confusion lied.