Toss Ups1. Maine: Toss up for now-- if Collins throws her hat in AND wins the GOP primary, I think this becomes safe R. If not, I think this becomes a Tilt/ Lean D race unless we see a redux of 2010/2014 with a really strong left leaning independent in the race.
2. Michigan: I think that the GOP got lucky and has a strong candidate in AG Bill Schuette, however, I do think Snyder and Trump's unpopularity in the state, along with the flint crisis will help the Dems here. Gretchen Whitmer is a formidable candidate and I think this race becomes lean D with her. If Geoffrey Fieger or Abdul El-Sayed get the Dem nod, it becomes a toss up/lean R race.
3. Wisconsin: For a long time I had the rated as lean/likely R and just moved it to toss up/tilt R. I think there is a very good chance Scott Walker wins re-election, however, the Democrats have formidable candidates in Tony Evers, the Wisconsin State Superintendent of Public Instruction and State Senator Kathleen Vinehout. Given Trump's current approval ratings and polls recently showing Walker underwater, I moved this to toss up.
4. Florida: As with MI, I think the GOP got lucky here with a very strong candidate in Adam Putnam. The Democrats also have some candidates who have
potential to be strong candidates, but are relatively unproven, including Tallahassee mayor, Andrew Gillum, former Congresswoman Gwen Graham, and (who I like to call the wild card) John Morgan, a personal injury lawyer and medical marijuana advocate. I think the rating of this race will largely depend on the outcome of the Dem primary and how the Democrat defines themselves and the race. This is one I could see slipping easily away from the Dems as a result of a divided primary, poor state party structure, and a unified/strong GOP.
5. Alaska: I will be honest that I don't know much about this race, but it seems that Walker has middling approvals and an unstable base of supporters, thus my rating as toss up. We will see if Walker is able to pull a redux of 2014.
6. Nevada: It seems that this is another race where the GOP likely got a top recruit in Adam Laxalt, the Nevada Attorney General. On the Dem side, the likely nominee is Steve Sisolak, Chair of the Clark County Commission, also a decent recruit. Although Nevada seems to have taken a turn to the left lately, it still has shown a strong propensity to elect the GOP state wide (i.e. Heller, Sandoval). Given Laxalt's name ID and position, I certainly would not count him out. Sisolak, however, has proven to be a formidable fundraiser, and given the leftward tilt of the state as of recent and an expensive Senate race that the Dem's are sure to be heavily investing in, I think he has a good chance to reclaim the governor's mansion for the Dems.
Other Notable Races 1. Minnesota: Likely D-- This is a race that the Dem's have gotten lucky in as they have not just 1, but multiple top tier candidates including Congressman Tim Walz, St. Paul Mayor Chris Coleman, and potentially Lori Swanson, the Minnesota Attorney General. All three of these candidates are top tier. Out of these, Tim Walz would likely be the strongest, having represented a rural part of the state (MN-01), having a miliatary background, and having earned the endorsement of multiple key figures in MN politics including Walter Mondale, R.T. Rybak, Colin Peterson, and the son of Paul Wellstone. However, Lori Swanson is well regarded and a very popular AG who would be a strong nominee and Chris Coleman has proven to be a popular and effective mayor in St. Paul. On the other hand the GOP hasn't been able to come up with a top tier candidate and seems to have settled on Jeff Johnson, the Hennepin County Commissioner and losing nominee for governor in 2014. Now, there obviously is still time for someone else to declare (i.e. Tim Pawlenty or his wife) on the GOP side who could change the dynamics of this race.
2. Illinois: Tilt D for now-- this is a race that has been painful to watch as a Democrat. It seems as though every Dem in the primary has either shot themselves in the foot or stuck their foot in their mouth with the exception of Pritzker, who is far from the perfect candidate. All that being said, Rauner is still a weak incumbent in a state with a massive budget crisis (whether that's his fault or not is an issue separate from electoral discussions). In addition, Pritzker will be able to match Rauner dollar for dollar in the general election. Given these factors, plus the solid blue status if IL in a Trump midterm, I have this race as tilt D.
3. Colorado: Although I don't think that Representative Jared Polis is the strongest candidate that the Dems could find for this race, I do think that he is a formidable candidate, is able to self fund, and proven campaigner/fundraiser. On the GOP side no top-tier candidates have emerged yet. Given this and the leftward trend of CO politics recently, I have this as tilt D for now, which could obviously change if we see a new GOP candidate emerge.
More Updates To Come
