CO looks ok so far for Obama.
Remember that the final early vote in 2010 was R+6 and Bennet won by 1.
In 2008, the final early vote was D+1.5 and Obama won by 9.
Currently it's R+3 in the early vote. Which would point to a Obama 3-4% winning margin.
Remember that CO Indies are an Obama-leaning folk.
I'd just made my own thread before noticing this...why do Colorado Republicans vote early so much more than their counterparts in other states?
They don't. Republicans are outperforming voter registration in Nevada, Florida, and North Carolina.
Colorado is such that it has more Republicans than Democrats and they are soaring to the polls this time.
Tender Branson is saying in 2010, the early voting was R+6 but ultimately Bennet won by 1%...nobody's disputing right now it's R+3, which seems to imply a narrow Obama victory. I'm listening very intently, krazen.
Of course. He and you both presume that independents will vote the same in this election as they did in those. Why would that be so?
In that same 2010 election Republicans won 3 statewide offices and the aggregate house vote by 5 points. Of course they had better candidates in those races than Mr. Buck.
I'll give you that Romney is an infinitely better candidate than Buck, I don't think anyone would deny that, but I also think that people underestimate the extent to which Obama is a better candidate than Bennett was. Lets not forget, Obama has actually won a state wide election in this state, where as in 2010, Bennett had not, and was appointed by an unpopular governor to fill a vacant senate seat. In addition, Bennett was the superintendent of the Denver public schools, not a well known figure in CO, until he was appointed to the senate, and really, until the 2010 campaign began. My point is, when we are comparing states like Nevada and Colorado which elected Democratic senators in 2010 because of flawed republican nominees, it is easy to over look the fact that the Democrats that won were extremely flawed as well, and Obama, like Romney, may to some extent be a better candidate. I will also concede that the 2012 early voting certainly makes Colorado look more favorable to the Republicans than it did 2008, but I also don't think that anyone can say with confidence that this race is anything more than a tossup right now.
