Rank reasons for R Senate Hold and general D disappointment despite winning POTUS

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

1. The center-right voters who tend to decide these elections were just as angry with how Democrats handled the Trump White House, impeachment, and SCOTUS confirmations as they were with Trump himself.

2. Pro-life moderates are elated with the new SCOTUS makeup, and don't want to place that in jeopardy by giving a Democratic President a Democratic Congress to work with.

3. White Americans surrounded by other white Americans in a bubble have bought into the idea that Democrats represent fringe ideas outside of the mainstream. This, in fact, is not the case, but Trump won white voters by 17 points. If the only people you interact with are other white people, this belief in the radical nature of Democratic politics gets constant reinforcement.

4. Getting committed Republicans to vote for a Democrat for President and Democrats for Congress is an uphill battle.

I think it's mostly about party identity and branding than it is about particular issues. There were probably Biden voters who were spooked by BLM protests and calls to "defund the police," but I have a feeling that if you're predisposed to being scared by this, you probably weren't voting for a Democratic trifecta in the first place.