Weird 538 maps

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I've said this before, but I have a strong suspicion that 538 has some demographic variables in the mix. Natural disasters could depress turnout in key areas, maybe? Or either Trump or Biden dies suddenly?

I'm not sure why their model is spitting out these strange maps, but my guess would be slim probabilities of some massive event that shakes everything up.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Some combination of a Yellowstone caldera eruption and COVID mutates to become 75% lethal to people of European descent? The USPS "misplaces" several million mail-in ballots?

I'm trying to figure out how CO and OR go Trump in this scenario.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Georgia sticks out like a sore thumb here.

1. Trump dominates white voters without a college degree.
2. Biden dominates white voters with a college degree.
3. Every single eligible black voter turns out.
4. Trump does better than expected with Hispanics.
5. Brian Kemp shuts down all polling places accessible by pedestrians.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I wouldn't complain about this one, and the order the states flip in at least makes sense, but wow is that a lot of blue.

This is actually a pretty decent Biden 65% Trump 30% map.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Some gems from a twitter thread a few weeks ago

This is my favorite Yellowstone Caldera scenario yet.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Go home, 538. You're drunk.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I envision Fivey Fox coming into the room with a dead bird, dropping it at your feet proudly, and looking expectantly like he wants praise.

This is a pretty decent 1992 Al Gore / Paul Tsongas victory map.

(Edit: Except for Virginia. I can't think of a year or circumstance where VA turns blue on this map.)

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Here's a compilation of every Trump victory map right now:

Red = Biden in all scenarios
Blue = Trump in all scenarios
Gray = States that differ between scenarios

Even in the wildest of outliers, VA and OR are now gone. That sounds like it should be obvious, but there are still outliers on Biden's end that have MS, TN, KS, IN, and LA going to Biden. Yes, the model is still spitting out results with those states going to Biden, but none at all with VA going to Trump. That's remarkable.

The other notable thing about this is that among the Trump states in EVERY Trump victory, including the ridiculous outliers, we have:

Florida (Biden leads by 4.4%)
North Carolina (Biden leads by 2.7%)
Ohio (Biden leads by 0.9%)
Iowa (Biden leads by 1.1%)
Georgia (Biden leads by 1.4%)

Trump victory maps are as much outliers as maps where Biden wins 430+ EVs. That's where the race is, according to 538.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Right now there are no maps that have Trump winning with Oregon, but there is a map with Biden winning WITHOUT Oregon, thanks to tipping point Mississippi.

I really want to see a trace of what path in their model led to this map.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

weird maps:

https://www.270towin.com/2020-simulation/

really weird maps:

http://presidentelect.us/2012/

Go to 1) maps 2)make your own map and then 3) randomize map

Here's a nice 270 simulation:



This would give me a bit of a sad, because of Indiana.

I have yet to run one where WI was not a bellwether, interestingly enough.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

winning the EC with the least amount of states carried


11 states, 1 EV from Maine

It's theoretically possible for Biden to win every state with a population larger than Tennessee's.