WI-Marquette: Biden +8 (user search)
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  WI-Marquette: Biden +8 (search mode)
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Author Topic: WI-Marquette: Biden +8  (Read 1016 times)
Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

« on: August 06, 2020, 11:01:56 AM »

I hate to be that guy, but these are Marquette's numbers for 2016:

June 6-9: Clinton +9 (46-37)
July 7-10: Clinton +4 (45-41)
August 4-7: Clinton +15 (52-37)
August 25-28: Clinton +3 (45-42)
September 15-18: Clinton +2 (44-42)
October 6-9: Clinton +4 (46-42)
October 26-31: Clinton +6 (46-40)

It's worth noting, however, that except for that weird +15 outlier, all of these polls underestimated Clinton's vote total. The undecideds broke for Trump in ridiculous numbers.

So, I feel a lot better about MU's polls that have Biden above 50%, but like a lot of people, I still have post-2016 stress syndrome.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

« Reply #1 on: August 06, 2020, 11:34:07 AM »

I hate to be that guy, but these are Marquette's numbers for 2016:

June 6-9: Clinton +9 (46-37)
July 7-10: Clinton +4 (45-41)
August 4-7: Clinton +15 (52-37)
August 25-28: Clinton +3 (45-42)
September 15-18: Clinton +2 (44-42)
October 6-9: Clinton +4 (46-42)
October 26-31: Clinton +6 (46-40)

It's worth noting, however, that except for that weird +15 outlier, all of these polls underestimated Clinton's vote total. The undecideds broke for Trump in ridiculous numbers.

So, I feel a lot better about MU's polls that have Biden above 50%, but like a lot of people, I still have post-2016 stress syndrome.

Their final poll in 2018 nailed it. Why do people keep on ignoring 2018 like it didn't exist?

I don't think anyone is ignoring 2018, but midterm elections are a different beast from Presidential elections.

The much lower numbers of undecided voters gives me confidence, however. I don't think you'll have 10% of voters making up their mind in the final week like in 2016. I suspect there are very few people out there who haven't decided at this point.
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