Which Potential Dem Primary candidates Do you give a >5% chance?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Harris, Warren, Biden, Beto, Gillibrand, Bernie, Klobuchar.

> 50% chance it's either Harris, Warren, Biden, or Beto.

> 80% chance it's any one of the above.

< 20% chance it's someone in the field outside the 5% margin (Booker, Brown, Delany, Kaine, Cuomo, a celebrity, or someone coming out of nowhere).

That 20% chance will tick down with each passing month, as the window to start a campaign closes.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Harris, Warren, Biden, Beto, Gillibrand, Bernie, Klobuchar.

> 50% chance it's either Harris, Warren, Biden, or Beto.

> 80% chance it's any one of the above.

< 20% chance it's someone in the field outside the 5% margin (Booker, Brown, Delany, Kaine, Cuomo, a celebrity, or someone coming out of nowhere).

That 20% chance will tick down with each passing month, as the window to start a campaign closes.

There can't be a >50% chance that more than two candidates win.

Anyway, I'd say the answers are Biden, Harris, Booker, Sanders, Warren, or O'Rourke.

If there's a 20% chance of Harris, a 15% chance of Warren, a 10% chance of Biden, and a 6% chance of Beto, given that they are mutually exclusive events, the chance that one of those four wins is 51%.

If it's even money to bet that one of those four will win vs someone else winning, I would bet on one of those four winning.