2008: Edwards/Richardson vs Romney/McCain

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Gore is finishing his second term (16 years of Democratic rule) and John Edwards is the nominee, with the Great Recession ramping up and a disaster in Afghanistan. Edwards's infidelity comes out two weeks before the election.

What's your map for this scenario?  Here's mine:

Romney/McCain 387
Edwards/Richardson 151

I think this might be the absolute GOP ceiling in the current political alignment.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

If Romney is winning all of those states, then he's definitely winning NJ and NM.  RI and IL are possibilities too.  If Romney is having a most excellent night, then he also snags VT, in addition to the aforementioned states.

I gave NM to Edwards due to Bill Richardson being on the ticket, but that might not matter. That would be the closest state IMO. VT and CA are tough to crack, but they would also be close. Really there's no state other than DC that Edwards wins with anything close to comfort.

UT should probably be Romney >80%. It would be a blue bloodbath.

EDIT: There's also the fact that no one would campaign in NM at all except perhaps Richardson. A popular governor and Hispanic in a very Hispanic state. I see him just kind of owning the place to himself and the Romney campaign not even bothering.