It's probably not a good idea to get so absolutist over trends.
^^^^^^^^^^
Each election brings with it a unique set of issues, a unique set of circumstances, and a unique set of candidates. Democrat candidates have been getting progressively taller since 1988. Does that mean Bill Bradley will get the nomination in 2008?
Had 9/11 happened in 2004 instead of 2001, Bush would have won 48 states. Circumstances change from year to year, independent of trends and demographics.
That's not to say that trends aren't useful to follow, but their predictive capacity is limited.
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