Foreign Trump Effect? Duterte officially breaks up with US, allies with China (user search)
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  Foreign Trump Effect? Duterte officially breaks up with US, allies with China (search mode)
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Author Topic: Foreign Trump Effect? Duterte officially breaks up with US, allies with China  (Read 1426 times)
Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

« on: October 20, 2016, 02:32:41 PM »

What other American allies must we worry would depart for Russia or China? South Korea? Japan? Taiwan? Any country in Eastern Europe? I highly doubt that. The only reason the Philippines has shifted towards China is because their little demagogic dictator doesn't like being condemned for the Hitler fanboy that he is.

Although I'd really like us to enforce the upholding of democracy and human rights on all of our allies, the fact remains that Philippines did relatively acceptable in this area and is now speeding into dictatorship, so of course they'll be exceptionally criticized. If Duterte or any other tyrant doesn't like that, then let them go be with China and Russia. We'll always welcome them back if they're willing to change their ways.

You are right.  No one else is in the region is going to change alignment.  A Russian alliance with South Korea or Japan would be extraordinarily provocative to North Korea, and by proxy, the DRK's big brother, China.  China has enough problems trying to keep North Korea from self-destructing without the specter of encirclement.

Taiwan is absolutely dependent on its security partnership with the USA.  They gain nothing and lose everything by buddying up to Russia.  And I doubt Russia wants to stick its nose in that mess.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

« Reply #1 on: October 20, 2016, 04:29:28 PM »

China is a different matter. Although its regional rivals dislike the Chinese, it's nothing compared to the resentment felt by Poland or the Baltic or Georgia towards Mother Russia. I don't think it's hyperbole to say that (aside from when DPP controls Taiwan) Washington is far more distrusting of Beijing than any other relevant power. There is no equivalent of Poland for example. Perhaps one can argue that recent conflict between Pakistan and India will bring New Delhi into diplomatic conflict with Islamabad's supposed sponsors but I'm sceptical (even if Modi's government has behaved characteristicly thuggishnessly in Nepal recently). Same with SE Asian powers like Indonesia and Vietnam. Even Korea is ambivalent, considering China's recent freezing of relations with DPRK and the fact that a large amount of Koreans loathe Japan and Abe far more than the behemoth to their West.

Japan is quite Sino-skeptic.  But China and Russia are very different beasts.  The PRC is no longer a state regime in the traditional sense.  They are a giant corporation with an army.  They don't form alliances, they engage in business ventures.

No one has a problem with China as long as business is good.  The USA and Russia are still living in the Cold War, however, and haven't awoken to this reality.
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