AP/GfK National: Clinton +6/+6 (and at 50 in the 2-way)

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Leading indicators???

We'll need to see if lagging indicators follow suit, considering the state numbers have been mixed for Clinton over the past few days.

She has always led in the 272.  I'm confident that any consistent lead outside the MoE will mean almost certain victory on Nov 8.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

If Hillary actually wins by 6, she'll get more than 272 EV. I'm very confident about that.

Yeah... From a tied race (freiwal only), I see NC flipping at 0.5, NV and FL around 1.5, OH and ME-02 around 3, Iowa and NE-02 following at 5, then AZ/GA a bit later (7-8 or so) and MO/SC around 10. So by that estimate, she'd win Obama 2008-IN if she were up 6, which actually makes perfect sense given that the margin was around 7 that election

In a tied race up to Clinton +1, VA, NH, CO, PA, NH, MI, and WI go to Clinton, but most <5%, and some will be razor-thin margins for Clinton.  FL, NV, and NC could go either way. 

I think we're headed for Clinton +4 when all is said and done, probably something like 48%-44%.  The 272 will be a foregone conclusion, probably NV, too.  FL/NC/OH/ME-2 will be your pure tossups.  They could go either way.  IA and NE-2 will look like pretty certain Trump victories, and AZ/GA will be out of the conversation.

Clinton +4% Confidence Map:

Now, if you're talking about +6 Clinton (which at this point is a rather distant probability):

Clinton +6% Confidence Map: