VA, CO (Fox): Clinton +7 (VA), +10 (CO) (user search)
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  VA, CO (Fox): Clinton +7 (VA), +10 (CO) (search mode)
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Author Topic: VA, CO (Fox): Clinton +7 (VA), +10 (CO)  (Read 4032 times)
Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

« on: July 14, 2016, 12:33:53 AM »

Trump can't even win a poll from FOX?! Sad!

Another double digit lead in Colorado. So where is everybody who was concern trolling about how she would lose the state by 90+ points? (I know, polls four months before actual election don't matter, but she seems to be cleaning house in a state where some Atlasians thought she would lose by double digits.)

So if you put these together:
1. A Clinton national lead of 5%
2. Clinton tied or falling behind in OH/PA/FL
3. Clinton ahead by double digits in CO (Fox, Monmouth)

Does the battleground map now look like this?



Because as weird as that looks, that's what polling is telling me.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

« Reply #1 on: July 14, 2016, 08:04:21 AM »

Trump can't even win a poll from FOX?! Sad!

Another double digit lead in Colorado. So where is everybody who was concern trolling about how she would lose the state by 90+ points? (I know, polls four months before actual election don't matter, but she seems to be cleaning house in a state where some Atlasians thought she would lose by double digits.)

So if you put these together:
1. A Clinton national lead of 5%
2. Clinton tied or falling behind in OH/PA/FL
3. Clinton ahead by double digits in CO (Fox, Monmouth)

Does the battleground map now look like this?



Because as weird as that looks, that's what polling is telling me.


Is Georgia really a toss-up? The RCP map has it that way, but the poll-average has Trump +4. I dont think Georgia is in play (i would put in lean trump for now untill beter polls for Clinton will show up) and I doubt Arizona is. That said: these polls are far off from where Trump has to be. He's got to improve his overall numbers. Maybe a shift in Obama's approval ratings will help, i've noticed they are trending down for the last two weeks.

My main point is these polls are ridiculous.  If Clinton is up that much nationally, but even in FL/OH/PA, she must be gaining elsewhere, which actually is reflected in the CO/AZ polls.  I mean, it's feasible there is a northeast-southwest shift, but I'm not putting much stock into it until we see September polls that say the same thing.

GA is probably lean R; Clinton hasn't been ahead in any poll I can remember, but there have been a whole bunch of close ones.
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