538 Model Megathread (user search)
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Author Topic: 538 Model Megathread  (Read 85957 times)
Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78
« Reply #50 on: October 26, 2016, 09:34:38 AM »

Take away Nate's "unskewing" and the race is almost back to pre-pussygate levels (2-way):
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78
« Reply #51 on: November 01, 2016, 02:04:06 PM »
Quote from: Happy Sad Trumpista on November 01, 2016, 01:59:33 PM
Poll-plus model.






Quote from: Old Europe on November 01, 2016, 10:13:41 AM
Last Friday, Nate Silver estimated/predicted that Hillary could drop to 68% in the polls-only model due to Comey-gate. We're at 74% now.

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So Comey [or not] almost cost Clinton 2% points. So far. Smiley

Polls-plus is garbage.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78
« Reply #52 on: November 02, 2016, 01:35:29 PM »
What the bloody hell?  How does the Marquette poll showing Clinton holding Wisconsin by early-October margins cause her chances to tick downward?
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