Why Trump is - and always has been - the best hope for the GOP in November

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

There are three groups of voters who decide every Presidential election.

1. The Democratic coalition of urban minorities, progressives, and labor unions.
2. The GOP coalition of southern and western rural voters, white males, and conservative Christians
3. Suburban independent voters in swing states.

The first is ROCK SOLID.  This is the group responsible for overcoming the Sanders insurgency and seeing Clinton through to the nomination, and they will show up for Clinton in November.  They represent a solid 35% of the electorate.  Actually, they are growing, due to changing demographics.

The second group is in TOTAL DISARRAY.  Half of them hate Trump and want nothing to do with him, half of them see him as their personal savior.

The third group?  You really think they are going to look at Donald J. Trump and say, "him, he's our guy?"

The math doesn't add up for Trump.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

The first is ROCK SOLID.  This is the group responsible for overcoming the Sanders insurgency and seeing Clinton through to the nomination, and they will show up for Clinton in November.  They represent a solid 35% of the electorate.  Actually, they are growing, due to changing demographics.

Right, because blue-collar union members are so enthusiastic about Hillary Clinton... Clinton will win the upscale union vote like nurses, college faculty, government employees, pilots, etc. but Trump will win over plenty of truck drivers, steelworkers, auto workers, prison guards, etc. who are registered Democrats but not ideologically married to Democratic orthodoxy.

Unfortunately, free trade will hurt her.  This is why Trump has a fighting chance in Michigan.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

The first is ROCK SOLID.  This is the group responsible for overcoming the Sanders insurgency and seeing Clinton through to the nomination, and they will show up for Clinton in November.  They represent a solid 35% of the electorate.  Actually, they are growing, due to changing demographics.

Right, because blue-collar union members are so enthusiastic about Hillary Clinton... Clinton will win the upscale union vote like nurses, college faculty, government employees, pilots, etc. but Trump will win over plenty of truck drivers, steelworkers, auto workers, prison guards, etc. who are registered Democrats but not ideologically married to Democratic orthodoxy.

How do I put this nicely.  Uh, this is an oversold myth.  A really bad one.

Citing  Silver articles about Trump.  You're new here, aren't you .

I think he's right, though, and the Dem coalition will be MUCH more unified than the GOP one.