What state will be the biggest surprise on election night?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Since most of us seem to look for and slice any poll we can what state could be the surprise Bush or Kerry that was not expected by the polls for Bush or Kerry??  There are quite a few here and I don't discount the possibility of my own being one of them. 

NH, ME, PA, NJ, OH, DE, WV, VA, NC, FL, AR, TN, MN, IA, WI, MO, NM, CO, NV, AZ, WA, OR??? 

Hell, I am will to listen to anything somewhat reasonable.

The biggest surprise outcomes that are within the realm of possibility are Kerry in AR, AZ, CO, or VA, or Bush in PA or WA (OR, MN, NH, and ME would not be shockers).

But I don't think any of those are going to happen.

I think the surprise of the night is that Bush will win big (around +7) in Florida.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I'll go away from the normal states and pick a weird one:

I don't think it'll change status, but it will be much closer than people are looking at and is one of the few places that historically has what I call "incumbent bias".

Hawaii

Oh, that reminds me of my outrageous prediction: Kerry gets within 15 of Bush in Idaho. :-)

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Michigan for Bush

Ooooh, good one!  I forgot about that.  It's polling tantalizingly close.

If all the stuffy western MI folks come out, they could certainly win it for Bush.

Do hardcore Calvinists believe in voting, since the outcome is predestined anyway?