Ireland General Discussion

[ObserverIE]

"These are men and women who are going to have the opportunity to go to work and that means getting on the employment ladder, being able to buy the car, the boyfriend, the girlfriend, buy the boots or whatever. Live a life, as it were."

Enda Kenny, 2015

government sets target of full employment by 2018!

So Enda Kenny is in favour of human trafficking?

Enda thinks human trafficking is something to do with weekend parking in Castlebar.

[ObserverIE]

Leo comes out.

[ObserverIE]

Not particularly surprising (people make assumptions about single/unmarried politicians, even relatively young ones), but this exchange was amusing -

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There had been enough hints dropped in the media about his "unmarried" status being a complicating factor in the undeclared leadership race between himself and Coveney, I suppose. Although Oliver Callan, who frequently has gone close to the bone on these kinds of "well-known secrets", steered clear of it.

I think the effect on Labour's remaining middle-class secularist support might be devastating: all those barristers and NGO executives in Ranelagh and Killiney being able to vote "progressively" for a gay Taoiseach and get higher-rate tax cuts into the bargain. Too tempting.

And it couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of people.

[ObserverIE]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post (changes since the poll last week):

Ind/Oth 25 (-3)
FG 24 (-)
SF 20 (-1)
FF 19 (+1)
Lab 9 (+1)
GP 2 (+1)
SWP t/a PBP 1 (+1)

[ObserverIE]

Enda and Joan discover a world where everyone loves them.

[ObserverIE]

Fecking plagiarist...

[ObserverIE]

Millward Brown/IMS for the Sindo:

SF 26 (+5)
FG 25 (+3)
Ind/Oth 23 (-9)
FF 19 (+1)
Lab 6 (+1)
GP 1 (-1)

[ObserverIE]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

Ind/Oth 26 (-)
FG 24 (-)
SF 21 (+1)
FF 18 (-1)
Lab 7 (-2)
GP 3 (+1)
#Lucinda 1 (+1)

[ObserverIE]

...but?

(For the benefit of any non-Irish, grá means love.)

[ObserverIE]

RedC for Paddy Power:

FG 26 (+2)
Ind/Oth 25 (-2)
SF 21 (-)
FF 17 (-1)
Lab 9 (+2)
GP 2 (-1)

Lucinda launches the new party. Name is Renua Ireland - sounds like the result of a really crap focus group, to be honest, but also is meant to evoke Ré Nua (New Era in Irish).

Renua's third TD not quite ready for primetime.

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times (after some industrial-scale adjustments):

FG 27 (+3)
Ind/Oth 23 (-6)
SF 19 (-3)
FF 18 (-)
Lab 9 (+4)
GP 3 (+2)

[ObserverIE]

Ipsos/MRBI for the Irish Times supposedly:

Ind/Oth 25 (-4)
FG 24 (+5)
SF 24 (+2)
FF 17 (-4)
Lab 7 (+1)
GP 3 (-)

AB voters: FG 43, Ind/Oth 31, FF 14, Lab 7, SF 6
C1 voters: Ind/Oth 29, FG 24, FF 19, SF 19, Lab 9
C2 voters: Ind/Oth 31, SF 30, FG 19, FF 14, Lab 5
DE voters: SF 36, Ind/Oth 26, FF 16, FG 15, Lab 8
F1/F2 voters: FG 35, FF 29, SF 17, Ind/Oth 17, Lab 2

More details here.

[ObserverIE]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FG 27 (+1)
Ind/Oth 24 (-1)
FF 18 (+1)
SF 17 (-4)
Lab 10 (+1)
GP 2 (-)
Renua 2 (+2)

[ObserverIE]

If FF get lower than they did in 2011, I will piss myself laughing.

pretty good result for the government, truth be told.

If we take it at face value, yes. I would generally put more trust in MRBI than RedC, though, and SF at only 17 strikes me as being "off".

[ObserverIE]

Millward Brown/IMS for the Sunday Independent:

FG 25 (-)
SF 24 (-2)
FF 19 (-)
Ind/Oth 17 (-6)
Lab 8 (+2)
GP 3 (+2)
Renua 2 (+2)
SP 2 (+2)

[ObserverIE]

Absolutely nothing to see here, folks.



Move along, please, and don't be embarrassing us in front of the neighbours.

[ObserverIE]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FG 25 (-2)
Ind/Oth 24 (-)
SF 22 (+5)
FF 19 (+1)
Lab 8 (-2)
GP 1 (-1)
Renua 1 (-1)

[ObserverIE]

Wow, I see Lucinda Creighton really has some mass appeal to the Irish electorate!

Very good....

As I said earlier, it's not possible to outflank FG on the economic right. Having the renowned gobsh:te Eddie Hobbs as her effective second-in-command was the kiss of death.

Herself and Billy Timmins will hold on due to their personal votes but it's difficult to see them making a breakthrough anywhere else.

[ObserverIE]

Me and Gully were talking about that poll the other night and how terrible the Irish media is at understanding polls. The last Red C had SF randomly drop 4 or 5 points, and now they return to the position virtually every other poll has them in and it's a SHOCK RESULT.

I said at the time that the 17 for SF seemed "off".

Most of this week's polling took place before Siteserv started to emerge from plain sight into the public view, so things may not be getting better for FG and their doormats any time soon.

[ObserverIE]

A couple of voting intention polls from this weekend:

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

FG 27 (-)
Ind/Oth 26 (+3)
SF 20 (+1)
FF 17 (-1)
Lab 8 (-1)
GP 3 (-)

Ipsos/MRBI for the Irish Times:

FG 28 (+4)
Ind/Oth 24 (-4)
SF 21 (-3)
FF 20 (+3)
Lab 7 (-)

[ObserverIE]

Any polling/thoughts on tomorrow's vote?

There's a thread on the International Elections board.

I think there's enough goodwill and "live and let live" sentiment among the general population for it to get across the line (54-55%?) despite a Yes campaign that was far too fond of preaching to the converted for its own good.

[ObserverIE]

Is it wrong of me that I feel slightly sorry for Michael Martin now?

Given that he went out of his way to ensure that she was elected to the Seanad in 2011 after having crashed and burned at the 2009 local elections and the 2011 general election (in both of which cases she was parachuted in by HQ), I feel more than slightly sorry for him.

I'd bracket her along with John McGuinness as being a self-interested publicity seeker, although McGuinness is at least electable by the population at large. But she's a media darling - in no small part because she's married to the editor of one of Denis O'Brien's newspapers - so she'll be given an easy ride.

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It depends on how you define "conservative". I don't think there's significant space to the right of FG economically, so I think FF has to position itself between FG and SF on that axis.

There's also a good deal of misgiving out there about an economic recovery which is largely centred on Dublin and middle-class Dublin at that, and there's the potential to argue that FG is solely concerned with looking after its core vote to the exclusion of everyone else. The vote that that argument can appeal to is going to be primarily "rural" (or non-metropolitan) by default.

On social issues, I don't think there are many people who vote solely on those issues on either side, although FF would need to be careful not to get associated with the extremes. As long as they remain socially moderate then I don't think the general electorate will care too much because other issues take priority in a general election campaign.

Ultimately, though, the problem for FF is that people still associate it with the last boom and bust and haven't forgiven it for the aftermath, although the hatred is slowly diminishing as we saw in Carlow-Kilkenny.

[ObserverIE]

Averil Power is terrible.

What, for the non-Irish among us, is wrong with her?

I refer you to my earlier answer:

Is it wrong of me that I feel slightly sorry for Michael Martin now?

Given that he went out of his way to ensure that she was elected to the Seanad in 2011 after having crashed and burned at the 2009 local elections and the 2011 general election (in both of which cases she was parachuted in by HQ), I feel more than slightly sorry for him.

I'd bracket her along with John McGuinness as being a self-interested publicity seeker, although McGuinness is at least electable by the population at large. But she's a media darling - in no small part because she's married to the editor of one of Denis O'Brien's newspapers - so she'll be given an easy ride.

She's a student union hack turned ministerial adviser who was parachuted onto the FF front bench by Martin in the run up to the 2011 election and was then relentlessly promoted in the Seanad election. Gigantic sense of entitlement with very little to justify it.

[ObserverIE]

Meanwhile:

http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/0528/704498-dail-leaders/

http://oireachtasdebates.oireachtas.ie/debates%20authoring/debateswebpack.nsf/takes/dail2015052800027?opendocument

While it lasts, http://www.broadsheet.ie/2015/05/28/redacteds-1-25-interest-rate/

Move along, nothing to see here (literally nothing to see if you're relying on NewsTalk or the Irish Independent)...

[ObserverIE]

Labour are to lose their 5th TD during this Dáil today.

Nulty (subsequently resigned from the Dáil)
Shortall (not coming back)
Broughan (not coming back)
Penrose (since returned)
Keaveney (gone to FF)
Ferris (due to return)
McNamara (?)

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http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/oireachtas/labour-td-to-vote-against-government-on-aer-lingus-sale-1.2229181

[/quote]

Represents the constituency containing Shannon Airport.

Has about zero chance of being re-elected as a Labour candidate.

Was independent until he hopped aboard the Labour bandwagon in 2010.

Now has opportunity to pose as local champion.

Will probably not be back.

[ObserverIE]

They apparently lack confidence in the cover provided by Article 15.12 of the Constitution:

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At 02.30, the Independent published: "Murphy uses Dáil privilege to raise O'Brien finances".

Nothing in The Examiner or on NewsTalk or Today FM yet that I can see.

Reminds me of something Trafigura once tried to pull in the UK:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Ivory_Coast_toxic_waste_dump#Minton_Report_and_legal_controversy

Thanks for the clarification re Averil Power, BTW.

It's worse, really.

Trafigura didn't own half the UK media and spend its time threatening the other half. It wasn't implicated in corruption allegations involving the governing party from that party's last spell in government.

FF, SF and Renua have all now called for the Dáil to be recalled next week to discuss the issue of parliamentary privilege. Even one of the more bolshie Labour senators has started squeaking.

Averil the great liberal hero has been absolutely silent on this one. I wonder why.