Ireland General Discussion

[ObserverIE]

Millward Brown/IMS for the Sindo:

FG 25 (-)
Ind/Oth 23 (-)
SF 22 (-2)
FF 21 (+1)
Lab 9 (+2)
GP 1 (-)

Sindo trying to spin this as the Burton Bounce eating into the Evil Shinners.

[ObserverIE]

Ipsos/MRBI for the Irish Times, generally considered the most accurate of the pollsters, with changes since before the local and European elections in May:

FG 24 (-)
SF 24 (+4)
Ind/Oth 23 (-1)
FF 20 (-5)
Lab 9 (+2)

[ObserverIE]

Crosstabs of MRBI poll here.

[ObserverIE]

Kind of the opposite take I would have expected from someone rambling about the gene pool and IQ scores.

But what effect would increasing IQ scores have on the FG vote in Stillorgan?

[ObserverIE]

My feeling is, that rather like the arrest for IRA activities before the May election, it will not have the deterrent effect on SF support that other parties and the media might hope for.

[ObserverIE]

Two recent polls

Sunday Times/B&A poll

Ind/Oth 25 (+3)
FG 25 (+1)
SF 19 (-)
FF 18 (-)
Lab 9 (-5)
GP 3 (+1)

RED C

FG 26 (-2)
Ind/Oth 24 (+3)
SF 20 (-3)
FF 18 (-)
Lab 8 (-)
GP 2 (-)
SP t/a AAA 1 (+1)
SWP t/a PBP 1 (+1)

So a chunk of the "plague on all your houses" vote shifts from SF to "Ind/Oth", at least for the moment.

[ObserverIE]

I see B&A has reverted to the mean after that weird poll a few months back.

B&A adjust the bejazes out of their polls so anything can happen from one to the next depending on flukes in the initial sample.

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Sounds like a normal day on Crank Central politics.ie.

[ObserverIE]

Millward Brown/IMS for tomorrow's Sindo:

SF 26 (+4)
Ind/Oth 23 (-)
FG 22 (-3)
FF 20 (-1)
Lab 7 (-2)
GP 1 (-)

Watching the Sindo trying to rationalise this one will be... interesting.

I leave you with a gem from the ever-perceptive Stephen Collins's column in the Irish Times from a few weeks back:

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[ObserverIE]

I'm astonish than the usual government party, Fianna Fail, failed to recover after it lost.

That's because they're still widely blamed for the economic mismanagement that led to the property bubble and its subsequent collapse.

However, FG have managed to outdo them over the last three years in terms of arrogance (not particularly surprising, given the social base of FG leadership cadres) and Labour have outdone them in terms of a reputation for cynicism and dishonesty, with both parties looking out for the interest of their own core supporters in terms of patronage and basically demonstrating "business as usual" despite initial promises of reform.

The current economic recovery is viewed as allowing Dublin and a few other metropolitan areas to overheat (with the consequent return of a property bubble in Dublin) while the rest of the country is left to rot. Average household incomes are continuing to decline.

Add to that the imposition of a consumption-based water charge unrelated to income (this government has been very fond of these kinds of flattish taxes) by a newly-established company which is under the ownership of an existing state utility, but treated as being private for borrowing purposes. The charge is notionally fixed at about €180 per person initially but is likely to rise sharply after the next election 2016 and there's a widespread belief that it's being prepared for privatisation (previous privatisation of utilities has led to them being passed from one venture capitalist to another and loaded with debt while the infrastructure stagnates). There were demonstrations today totalling about 160,000 people against the process.

This evening's poll comes after a two-week all-pervasive media sh*tstorm in which Adams and SF were being attacked by other political parties and by pretty much all media outlets in the Republic over the Máiria Cahill case. The Sindo last Sunday had something like 40 articles dealing with the story, all attacking Adams and SF. (The notion of "overkill" never seems to occur to the Irish media.)

SF are still likely to underpoll in comparison with these figures because they're dependent on demographic groups (the young and working-class) who turn out in low numbers on election day, whereas FF will overpoll because of a variation of the "shy Tory" effect, but both FG and Labour are now in deep, deep trouble. Irish Water looks to be for them what Anglo-Irish was for FF.

[ObserverIE]

RedC poll this evening reported as being:

Ind/Oth 24 (-)
FG 22 (-4)
SF 22 (+2)
FF 18 (-)
Lab 8 (-)
GP 3 (+1)
SP t/a AAA 2 (+1)
SWP t/a PBP 1 (-)

[ObserverIE]

Given that almost all of the f**k-ups of this government ("logarithmic progressions", Shattergate, McNultygate, Irish Water) have been the responsibility of FG, it's only natural justice that they're finally getting a hiding in terms of popular support.

[ObserverIE]

Or, in a more conventional format:

Ind/Oth 29 (+8)
SF 22 (-2)
FF 21 (+1)
FG 19 (-5)
Lab 6 (-3)
GP 3 (+1)

That FG tactic of defining the next election as being solely between themselves and Teh Evil Shinners is working out really well for them.

You can almost smell the panic emanating from the media/lobbyist class at this stage.

Edit: Details in the form of nifty bar charts and combo boxes here.

FG vote collapsing everywhere except among the upper-middle classes (AB) and farmers (F1/F2) - although FF have overhauled them in the latter category.

[ObserverIE]

I think that photo of the Healy-Raes captures things masterfully.

Healy-Rae senior passes on.

[ObserverIE]

RIP, FF

I dtreo an bhua i gcónaí, as Che Guevara might have said had he ended up in Kilgarvan.

[ObserverIE]

Some interesting findings from that horrible poll here. SF somehow score best on "lowering taxes" and "protecting the most vulnerable" which really says everything you need to know about Irish politics at the moment.

If you classify the water charge as a tax and look at it from the standpoint of those who are not in a position to benefit from FG's insistence on income tax cuts for the better-off, then it's not as illogical as it looks.

[ObserverIE]

Some interesting findings from that horrible poll here.

Nothing to worry about in any case; the incomparable Stephen Collins sees "germs of hope" in the poll for Fine Gael.

I'm not exactly sure which germs, though. Hopefully not Ebola.

[ObserverIE]

What's this I've heard about a supposed new party lead by Shane Ross and/or Lucinda Creighton?

There's been talk about a new political party led by Creighton ever since she was driven out of FG in the summer of 2013 (a move by Enda Kenny which was wildly and unanimously applauded at the time by our sheep-like political press corps and commentariat).

I think there are two difficulties with a potential Creighton party.

1) It gets taken over by the culture-war brigade. The flock of sheep with laptops referred to above would have us believe that a conservative stance on bedroom issues is in itself electoral poison. I'm not convinced by that argument myself (the country extends well beyond the sheep's South Dublin paddocks), but I don't think that there are very many voters who are solely concerned with these issues - on either side of the arguments - although the ones who are tend to shout very loudly.

2) I don't see how you outflank a FG party, seemingly solely focussed on cutting income tax on higher earners and serving the business interests of the American Chamber of Commerce and a certain Maltese-based O'Ligarch, from the right on economics. I'm not even sure that there's much of an appetite for wingnut economics beyond the internet.

[ObserverIE]

a certain Maltese-based O'Ligarch.

Name?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denis_O%27Brien

[ObserverIE]

Never let it be said that I'm an admirer of the Irish political punditocracy but exiling Lucinda Creighton to (however temporary) political Antarctica is probably the best thing Kenny's done in his career. I can't imagine her long-awaited political party - the, er, RA - would amount to much if it actually happens considering it would be little more than Fine Gael, but more so.

They can try presenting themselves as a more principled, less compromised version of FG. The candidate they supported in the Dublin South West by-election (McMahon) came close to outpolling FG (although that was as much due to the collapse in government support as anything else).

I think Kenny overplayed it by announcing that none of the expelled TDs would be allowed to stand in the following election. Better to have let things cool down gradually.

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http://www.irishtimes.com/business/retail-and-services/water-protesters-interpret-topaz-chief-s-call-for-dictatorship-as-high-octane-1.2011077

Little trifles like mobile phone licences and contracts for water meter installation seem to have a habit of falling into Denis's lap under FG governments. I don't think FG are going to repeat the mistake of antagonising the country's main media owner that the Rainbow made over MMDS and television deflectors in the 90s, and indeed Independent Newspapers seem to have moved into full-on fawning mode on Kenny and FG in recent times. Not that it's doing FG much good.

[ObserverIE]

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/retail-and-services/water-protesters-interpret-topaz-chief-s-call-for-dictatorship-as-high-octane-1.2011077

Hahahahaha I did not see this. That's incredible. He should be a Reform Alliance candidate. Or at least learn that people on the political left tend to lack a sense of humour.

I would have thought he would fit perfectly well into the Fine Gael golf/rugby club bore demographic.

[ObserverIE]

Sinéad O'Connor announces her decision to join Sinn Féin.

The beleaguered Labour leader decides to relax a little on hearing the news:

[ObserverIE]

Referendum on same-sex marriage to be held next May.

Along with a by-election in Carlow-Kilkenny and two other a referendums on lowering the voting age to 16 and on lowering the age requirement to stand for the Presidency from 35 to 21.

Both of these were proposed by the Constitutional Convention, though narrowly in the case of the reduction in voting age.

A related Constitutional Convention proposal to make it easier for candidates to actually acquire a nomination to stand in the Presidential election by lowering the hurdles (currently 20 members of the Dáil or Seanad or the support of three county councils) and which received more widespread support from the Convention than the other two proposals (forum members may remember the difficulties that David Norris had in standing in 2011) isn't being put to the people. Funny that.

[ObserverIE]

Christmas presents for our dear leaders:

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

Ind/Oth 28 (+1)
SF 24 (+2)
FG 21 (-1)
FF 19 (+1)
Lab 6 (-2)
GP 2 (-1)

IMS/Millward Brown for the Sunday Independent:

Ind/Oth 32 (+9)
FG 22 (-)
SF 21 (-5)
FF 18 (-2)
Lab 5 (-2)
GP 2 (+1)

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

Ind/Oth 29 (+4)
FG 24 (-1)
SF 22 (+3)
FF 18 (-)
Lab 5 (-4)
GP 1 (-2)

[ObserverIE]

It doesn't really tell us anything about Boxcar Willie that a protozoan of moderate intelligence couldn't have guessed.

[ObserverIE]

RedC for Paddy Power

Ind/Oth 27 (-1)
FG 24 (+3)
SF 21 (-3)
FF 18 (-1)
Lab 8 (+2)
GP 1 (-1)
#Lucinda 1 (+1)

As a matter of interest, in comparison with the Paddy Power poll carried out this time last year, changes over 12 months are: FG -4, FF -4, Lab -2, GP -1, SF +3, Ind/#Lucinda +8