Irish Elections - Referendum, Presidential, and General (polling or byelections)

[ObserverIE]

We're left waiting for:

Galway West (self-consciously hip city - think of a wetter, heterosexual Brighton or a Seattle without any tech giants - allied to remote, Irish-speaking hinterland: Michael D's home base and will go to him by a landslide)

Laois-Offaly (last boggy redoubt of Fianna Fáil - rural small towns with some outer Dublin commuter territory: Gallagher should win narrowly)

Louth (two down-at-heel industrial towns that have been somewhat commuterised and with an influx from Northern Ireland, with a rural annexe and a reputation for relaxed business standards: Gallagher's home base but Higgins will outpoll him)

Cavan-Monaghan (deeply rural, small-farmer territory along the border, where Gallagher was born and grew up: Gallagher by a landslide with McGuinness second and Higgins a poor third)

[ObserverIE]

Galway West: Higgins 57.6 Gallagher 18.5 McGuinness 10.7 Mitchell 4.6 Scallon 3.5 Norris 3.3 Davis 1.8

[ObserverIE]

Wasnt Gallagher getting beat 2-1 in a lot of parts of Louth.  I know he was losing his hometown of Blackrock by that margin.

I thought McGuinness, Mitchell and Norris did worse than I thought they would by a few percentage points. I thought Higgins would have been around 35 than 40.  Gallagher is right around where I thought he would be.

Blackrock is a middle-class suburb of Dundalk and the middle-class areas today have been going to Higgins (see south Dublin for examples). Gallagher is appealing more to rural voters and the aspirational lower middle-classes - a Tay Party candidate if you will.

[ObserverIE]

Cavan-Monaghan: Gallagher 45.1 McGuinness 20.6 Higgins 19.8 Mitchell 7.1 Norris 2.8 Scallon 2.7 Davis 1.8

[ObserverIE]

So, in short, Higgins has this in the bag, as does the Labour candidate out in whatever place they are doing the by-election?

Higgins was always going to attract more transfers than Gallagher from all the other candidates (except perhaps Scallon). The Father Ted moment at the debate and the car crash on the radio the following morning ensured that the transfers were going to go even more strongly to him.

Gallagher would have had to be ahead by more than 6% to counteract that. Instead, a large chunk of his vote (the bits who were attracted to the idea of an indepedent candidate as President) switched en masse to Higgins.

[ObserverIE]

Louth: Higgins 36.3 Gallagher 29.6 McGuinness 20.0 Norris 5.5 Mitchell 4.1 Davis 2.3 Scallon 2.2
Laois-Offaly: Gallagher 37.6 Higgins 31.8 McGuinness 13.0 Mitchell 6.6 Norris 6.0 Scallon 3.0 Davis 2.0

[ObserverIE]

National First Preference Vote:

Higgins 39.6
Gallagher 28.5
McGuinness 13.7
Mitchell 6.4
Norris 6.2
Scallon 2.9
Davis 2.7

Scallon and Davis eliminated.

Update: Transfers so far are edging Mitchell further ahead of Norris. The second count result is likely to be announced at around 1am. The next count will be the distribution of Norris's transfers in order to see if they could move Mitchell above the 12.5% mark required to retrieve some of his expenses (they won't).

The count is likely to be adjourned until morning after the second count announcement.

The Dublin West recount has resulted in a dead heat between Coppinger and McGuinness, with FF pushing for a total recount in the morning.

The referendum on judicial pay looks likely to be passed easily, but the referendum on parliamentary enquiries will be lost.

[ObserverIE]

Count 2

Higgins	701,101	(39.6%)	+29,379	730,480	(41.2%)
Gallagher	504,964	(28.5%)	+24,437	529,401	(29.9%)
McGuinness	243,030	(13.7%)	+9,581	252,611	(14.3%)
Mitchell	113,321	(6.4%)	+14,036	127,357	(7.2%)
Norris	109,469	(6.2%)	+7,057	116,526	(6.6%)
Scallon	51,220	(2.9%)	-51,220
Davis	48,567	(2.7%)	-48,567
Non-transferable	0	(0.0%)	+15,387	15,387	(0.9%)

Norris eliminated

[ObserverIE]

Nulty wins Dublin West for Labour

Nulty	8,665	8,885	10,186	13,027	17,636
McGuinness	7,742	7,935	8,720	9,873	11,590
Coppinger	7,542	7,834	9,368	9,873
Loftus	5,263	5,410	5,942
Donnelly	3,173	3,309
O'Gorman	1,787	1,925
Caesar Hunt	775
Kidd	311
Bermingham	185
Doris	95
Tallon	73
Cooney	51
Ó Ceallaigh	40

[ObserverIE]

Count 3

Higgins	701,101	(39.6%)	+29,379	730,480	(41.2%)	+62,648	793,128	(44.8%)
Gallagher	504,964	(28.5%)	+24,437	529,401	(29.9%)	+18,972	548,373	(31.0%)
McGuinness	243,030	(13.7%)	+9,581	252,611	(14.3%)	+12,585	265,196	(15.0%)
Mitchell	113,321	(6.4%)	+14,036	127,357	(7.2%)	+8,952	136,309	(7.7%)
Norris	109,469	(6.2%)	+7,057	116,526	(6.6%)	-116,526
Scallon	51,220	(2.9%)	-51,220
Davis	48,567	(2.7%)	-48,567
Non-transferable	0	(0.0%)	+15,387	15,387	(0.9%)	+13,369	28,756	(1.6%)

McGuinness and Mitchell eliminated

[ObserverIE]

Some final results:

Cork North Central: Higgins 61.1 Gallagher 38.9
Cork South Central: Higgins 66.6 Gallagher 33.4
Donegal South West: Gallagher 52.0 Higgins 48.0
Dublin North Central: Higgins 71.4 Gallagher 28.6
Dublin West: Higgins 66.3 Gallagher 33.7
Tipperary South: Higgins 55.9 Gallagher 44.1

Clare: Higgins 61.7 Gallagher 38.3
Galway East: Higgins 56.8 Gallagher 43.2
Mayo: Higgins 61.0 Gallagher 39.0
Meath West: Higgins 55.7 Gallagher 44.3
Sligo-North Leitrim: Higgins 59.4 Gallagher 40.6

Limerick City: Higgins 70.7 Gallagher 29.3

Cork North West: Higgins 52.6 Gallagher 47.4
Dublin Mid West: Higgins 67.3 Gallagher 32.7
Dublin South: Higgins 73.2 Gallagher 26.8
Dublin South Central: Higgins: 74.1 Gallagher 25.9
Wicklow: Higgins 62.3 Gallagher 37.7

Cork South West: Higgins 54.5 Gallagher 45.5
Donegal North East: Higgins 50.3 Gallagher 49.7

[ObserverIE]

Remaining final constituency results:

Carlow-Kilkenny: Higgins 56.8 Gallagher 43.2
Cavan-Monaghan: Gallagher 61.5 Higgins 38.5
Cork East: Higgins 55.7 Gallagher 44.3
Dublin Central: Higgins 60.2 Gallagher 39.8
Dublin North: Higgins 66.0 Gallagher 34.0
Dublin North East: Higgins 69.3 Gallagher 30.7
Dublin North West: Higgins 67.4 Gallagher 32.6
Dublin South East: Higgins 79.9 Gallagher 20.1
Dublin South West: Higgins 66.6 Gallagher 33.4
Dún Laoghaire: Higgins 75.5 Gallagher 24.5
Galway West: Higgins 75.8 Gallagher 24.2
Kerry North-West Limerick: Higgins 60.5 Gallagher 39.5
Kerry South: Higgins 59.4 Gallagher 40.6
Kildare North: Higgins 65.4 Gallagher 34.6
Kildare South: Higgins 57.9 Gallagher 42.1
Laois-Offaly: Higgins 51.1 Gallagher 48.9
Limerick: Higgins 57.8 Gallagher 42.2
Longford-Westmeath: Higgins 56.2 Gallagher 43.8
Louth: Higgins 59.0 Gallagher 41.0
Meath East: Higgins 58.5 Gallagher 41.5
Roscommon-South Leitrim: Higgins 52.0 Gallagher 48.0
Tipperary North: Higgins 54.4 Gallagher 45.6
Waterford: Higgins 59.2 Gallagher 40.8
Wexford: Higgins 55.5 Gallagher 44.5

Regional results:

Dublin: Higgins 70.2 Gallagher 29.8
Rest of Leinster: Higgins 57.7 Gallagher 42.3
Munster: Higgins 59.4 Gallagher 40.6
Connacht: Higgins 61.7 Gallagher 38.3
Ulster (part of): Gallagher 56.4 Higgins 43.6

National: Higgins 61.0 Gallagher 39.0

[ObserverIE]

Count 4

Higgins	701,101	(39.6%)	+29,379	730,480	(41.2%)	+62,648	793,128	(44.8%)	+213,946	1,007,104	(56.8%)
Gallagher	504,964	(28.5%)	+24,437	529,401	(29.9%)	+18,972	548,373	(31.0%)	+79,741	628,114	(35.5%)
McGuinness	243,030	(13.7%)	+9,581	252,611	(14.3%)	+12,585	265,196	(15.0%)	-265,196
Mitchell	113,321	(6.4%)	+14,036	127,357	(7.2%)	+8,952	136,309	(7.7%)	-136,309
Norris	109,469	(6.2%)	+7,057	116,526	(6.6%)	-116,526
Scallon	51,220	(2.9%)	-51,220
Davis	48,567	(2.7%)	-48,567
Non-transferable	0	(0.0%)	+15,387	15,387	(0.9%)	+13,369	28,756	(1.6%)	+107,718	136,474	(7.7%)

Higgins elected

[ObserverIE]

Are constituency results (or perhaps county or county equivilent results) available for earlier Presidential elections, and how far back if so?  I'd love to see such maps for 1966 or 1973.

http://presidentialelection.ie/downloads/Presidential_Elections_1938-2004.pdf

[ObserverIE]

What's the threshold for that type of thing these days?

Twenty, I think:

http://irishpoliticalmaps.blogspot.com/search/label/Irish%20presidential%20election%201966

http://irishpoliticalmaps.blogspot.com/search/label/Irish%20presidential%20election%201973

[ObserverIE]

http://irishpoliticalmaps.blogspot.com/2011/10/referendum-2011-oireachtas-inquiries.html



http://irishpoliticalmaps.blogspot.com/2011/10/referendum-2001-judges-renumeration.html

Donegal and Roscommon forming an unlikely alliance with Dublin 4 in being notably bolshie on the first of the referendums.

[ObserverIE]

So Donegal is Sinn Féin country now, then? I suppose it was a matter of time.

Donegal is non-conformist (at least where conformity implies the official "Dublin" mindset) and has been for some time. It was the only area to vote against Lisbon II but even before that it tended to take a more socially conservative stance on the various abortion and divorce referendums. Throw in the Morris Tribunal revelations about Garda behaviour there and a more general sense of alienation from a central government due to geographic isolation and perceived official indifference, and you end up with a county that "does different". Blaneyism arguably acted as a conduit whereby people in what had been a Fianna Fáil stronghold got used to not voting for "official" Fianna Fáil.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dL_PXBt85rY

Roscommon's bolshiness is more recent and owes a lot to the hospital issue.

[ObserverIE]

Patrick Nulty - winner of the Dublin West by-election.

First win by a Government party in a by-election since Galway East 1982.
First gain by a Government party in a by-election since Monaghan, 1977.

Bumping this to take account of developments since then...

Nulty, along with two other TDs - Willie Penrose (Longford-Westmeath) and Tommy Broughan (Dublin North East) - has since been excluded from the Labour parliamentary party. Penrose, who was a "super junior" minister with the right to attend (but not vote at) Cabinet meetings, resigned over the closure of a military barracks in his constituency. Broughan voted against the Government over the renewal of guarantees to bondholders in the banks (an issue which Labour had trumpeted over the last few years as evidence of their good judgement and distance from "politics as usual"). Nulty voted against the rise in the higher rate of VAT from 23% to 25%. Both had the whip withdrawn and are now non-persons as far as Labour are concerned. (Interestingly, Willie Penrose - without whom Labour would have no significant presence in Westmeath - still exists.)

Labour also seem to be hell-bent on self-immolation. Over the last month, they have:

• made sure to associate themselves with the public expenditure cuts part of the budget,
• announced a cut to the disability allowance for 18-24 year-olds which was reversed two days later after public outrage accompanied by pious tut-tutting from their right-wing government partners,
• emerged as cheerleaders for the appointment of the current head of the Department of Finance, associated with a series of bad decisions, to a €200K p.a. sinecure in Brussels, with a dissident MEP being reportedly threatened with expulsion for opposing the appointment, and
• decided to cut hundreds of teaching positions in primary schools in underprivileged areas

.
[/list]

The latest opinion poll released tonight by Behaviour & Attitudes gives:

FG 30 (-7)
SF 21 (+2)
FF 20 (+5)
Lab 11 (-4)
Greens 3 (+1)
Inds/Others 15 (+3)

The overall Government approval rating is -43 (26/69).[/list]

[ObserverIE]

Behaviours & Attitudes are a fairly crappy pollster, no? Not that I really doubt the trends, but IIRC they've had results similar to this that were outliers compared to MRBI & Red C, so I'll hold on to hope.

Labour have certainly made some poor political decisions, though. It's a shame, but FG-Labour really was - and is - the only viable government, so it's a damned-if-they-do damned-if-they-don't kind of situation.

All the things I mentioned are Labour's own fault (though the disability cuts would have been approved by the whole cabinet - including the piously tut-tutting Blueshirts).

Add to that a stagnating economy (unemployment now at 14.8%, GNP down -4.2% year-on-year in the 3rd quarter of 2011), a seemingly endless succession of flat-rate taxes and public service cuts, a government strategy on Europe that's seen as being supine and ineffective, cronyism in terms of party hacks being given special advisor jobs at six-figure salaries way above a supposed maximum, and an apparent determination by Merkozy to take the Eurozone into long-term recession (or at best stagnation), and prospects both for Labour - and more importantly for the rest of us - look bleak. Your only small consolation will be that FG will get an equal hammering.

The fewest seats Labour have ever taken in a Dáil election is 7 (in 1932). That record could well be broken next time round.

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2016 will be 22 years after the first IRA ceasefire and 19 years after it was reinstated. People may well be desperate enough by then to give Sinn Féin a chance.

[ObserverIE]

Unless the Euro does collapse and a real apocalypse does occur that makes everything we have gone through so far a stubbed toe in comparison (certainly a possibility), I really don't think either Labour or FG will collapse in the same manner FF did. Simply because nobody can real blame FG or Lab for the disaster so they can play the "We don't want to do this, but TINA" role (Something FF could never sincerely do). In saying that, I didn't think the government would get this unpopular so fast. So maybe I'm talking from the wrong orifice...

The cuts are going to get worse in future years - I've no doubt that Croke Park will be thrown on the bonfire next year or the year after as a sacrificial offering, but it's not going to be enough to prevent the dismantling of large parts of the public services. Fine Gael will, of course, insist on income tax staying where it is (it knows where its support base is). Labour will prove as willing to stand up to them as it has been up until now.

The Euro compact, if it gets through, insists on member states reducing their debt/GDP ratio to 60%, which implies either significant growth or years of significant budget surpluses, i.e. austerity stretching to eternity. There is absolutely no sign of Germany being prepared to concede any debt restructuring. I doubt if we can rely on the German electorate dumping the CDU in 2013, and the peripheral economies may not last that long.

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<shrugs> Taoiseach Mary Lou or Taoiseach Pearse Doherty, perhaps.

If the alternative is Taoiseach Declan Ganley...?

[ObserverIE]

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Giving how crumbly the parliamentary Labour party has been so far.. (it must be record), I doubt they can really continue like this. But then again I'm probably underestimating the sheer stupidity of the Irish parliamentary centre-left; something I should be inured to by now due to the experience of the Greens.

In saying that, I have to agree with that analysis about the future. However, it remains to be seen how the government will deal with industrial action of any sort.

I shall add, given that I come from my family who knows a quite a lot of people in their 50s or early 60s who work in civil service or public sector type jobs, the amount of people I know who are retiring this year is..... well, predictable.

I'm well aware of the number of retirements myself; but no matter how many retirements there are, it's not going to stop the "we could keep this hospital/school/etc. open if only the greedy public servants didn't insist on being paid" campaign from the Sindo and Pat "Plank" Kenny.

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Yeah. Real question is whether the government will even survive to 2015-2016.[/quote]

Labour stuck in there through 1982-87 and, realistically, FG only need about 8 or so Labour TDs to remain to have an overall majority. (You could argue that Labour's tragedy is that its best election ever coincided with a government partner that barely needs it to govern alone and is at its most ideologically right-wing since the early 1930s.)

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We would have to reach the point where guns and liquor would be the same investment (and zombies armies would rule the earth) for those to be the only two choices. I suspect actually if a real big collapse happens, we simply see the country slide into ungovernability as local interests would become pre-dominant in a majority-less dail. More Wallaces and Flanagans, not more Declan Ganleys.[/quote]

I'm thinking of where the disaffected FG voters are going to go. Some of the FF converts from the last election may return to base, but the Newstalk listeners and Sindo readers may look for something more ideologically, say, robust. (Realistically, it's more likely to be someone from the right of FG or FF - Deasy or John McGuinness, perhaps - or a business type less obviously dodgy than the Squire of Abbeyknockmoy.)

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That assumes they'll stay in one piece.

[ObserverIE]

RedC for Paddy Power, taken Monday-Wednesday (changes since November)

FG 33 (+1)
FF 17 (-1)
Lab 16 (+1)
SF 14 (-1)
Greens 3 (+1)
Others 17 (-1)





Red C has more of a record than Behaviours & Attitudes but is not as reliable as MRBI (it adjusts for likelihood to vote and consistently overstated FG in the run-up to the general election).

[ObserverIE]

28% in Dublin for Ind/Other looks a lot at first glance, but I suppose it's not that surprising (and is subject to all the usual health warnings about margin of error on subsamples).

According to the press release, the Socialist Party (the continuation of Militant and one half of the ULA) are on 6% in Dublin.

[ObserverIE]

Referendum at some unspecified point this year on the European Fiscal Compact after the Attorney-General decided that it probably required a referendum for ratification. Government rather unsuccessfully pretending not to be disapppointed, with the leader of the Labour Party facing the prospect of asking the electorate to vote for Frankfurt's way (joke from last year's election campaign).

The only poll taken on the treaty so far showed a margin of 40/36 in favour (although interestingly, the only age group with a majority in favour were the under-25s, who are least likely to actually vote).

Political support levels:

RedC (23-25/1)

FG 30 (-2)
FF 18 (-)
SF 17 (+2)
Ind/Others 17 (-1)
Lab 14 (-1)
Green 3 (+2)
SP 1 (-)

Behaviours & Attitudes (15-20/2)

FG 32 (+2)
SF 25 (+4)
FF 16 (-4)
Ind/Others 15 (-)
Lab 10 (-1)
Green 2 (-1)

Make of it what you will...

Another RedC poll due for Sunday.

[ObserverIE]

Éamon Ó Cuív (grandson of Éamon de Valera) resigns/is resigned as deputy leader of Fianna Fáil because of his unwillingness to vote for the Fiscal Compact in the Dáil.

Not resigning from Fianna Fáil - at least not yet.